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February 9th Coastal Storm Discussion


Baroclinic Zone

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Best you can hope for in terms of "stalling" is to keep deepening the the shortwave and have it try and capture the low just as it's exploding....then maybe you get an additional 3-4 hours. But this isn't going to be a 18+ hour heavy snow pounding....because even in the vent of a capture or partial capture, though whole trough is going to swing northeast quite quickly.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Best you can hope for in terms of "stalling" is to keep deepening the the shortwave and have it try and capture the low just as it's exploding....then maybe you get an additional 3-4 hours. But this isn't going to be a 18+ hour heavy snow pounding....because even in the vent of a capture or partial capture, though whole trough is going to swing northeast quite quickly.

This is a key point in my estimation... 

Once that L/W axis of the N stream even partially phases, the storm may slow toward the planetary wave speed ... But, there isn't a stall...  per se -

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Best you can hope for in terms of "stalling" is to keep deepening the the shortwave and have it try and capture the low just as it's exploding....then maybe you get an additional 3-4 hours. But this isn't going to be a 18+ hour heavy snow pounding....because even in the vent of a capture or partial capture, though whole trough is going to swing northeast quite quickly.

Yes.  But February 2006 shows you how it can be done with big totals via banding.   See parts of CT.

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Just now, weathafella said:

Yes.  But February 2006 shows you how it can be done with big totals via banding.   See parts of CT.

Oh yeah, I'm not trying to say we can't get big totals (I'll define "big as 12"+)...it's just we aren't going to be having a marathon of a storm. It's probably less than 12 hours from first flakes to last...maybe lingering mood snow a little longer in coastal and SE areas.

 

The powerful dynamics shown on the Euro would suggest that someone would likely see 12"+ in the banding wherever it sets up...

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Yeah ... again again again ...

the 'banding'/frontogen structure of this thing has been in tact since the NAM started this coup almost 36 hours ago frankly.   

That aspect is also a theoretical slam dunk for an open wave with such a powerful jet core ripping just SE of the area... I think it's a matter of whether this is over land/NW or a sea-fairing event.   But man, some of those snow products for western NS are ...30 to 40"?    this is obvioiusly evolving toward one of those 'specially' talented type storms that has a history for overproducing when it otherwise looks pedestrian.  interesting... 

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6 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

The Kuchera map would imply 15-17:1 ratios

170209/1600Z  52  02013KT  24.7F  SNOW   15:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016   15:1|  0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02  100|  0|  0
170209/1700Z  53  02012KT  24.9F  SNOW   18:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.067   18:1|  1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08  100|  0|  0
170209/1800Z  54  02012KT  24.7F  SNOW   18:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.106   18:1|  3.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.19  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170209/1900Z  55  01013KT  23.4F  SNOW   14:1| 3.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.217   16:1|  6.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.41  100|  0|  0
170209/2000Z  56  36014KT  21.3F  SNOW   13:1| 2.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.177   15:1|  8.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.58  100|  0|  0
170209/2100Z  57  36015KT  19.5F  SNOW    9:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.087   14:1|  9.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.67  100|  0|  0
170209/2200Z  58  35015KT  18.2F  SNOW   30:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.054   15:1| 11.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.72  100|  0|  0
170209/2300Z  59  34015KT  17.7F  SNOW   26:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022   16:1| 11.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.75  100|  0|  0
170210/0000Z  60  34014KT  18.2F  SNOW   22:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010   16:1| 11.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.76  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170210/0100Z  61  34014KT  18.4F  SNOW   18:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006   16:1| 12.0|
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7 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I'd say a general 6-10 is a good starting point.... if guidances continues to be amped up tonight and tomorrow... those numbers can slowly start to rise

Not bad for a conservative/sensible first guess... 

The trick is those meso bands ... this is like a general 6" deal with stripes where the rake tongs were more impressive for a few - ..but perhaps not pervasively enough to go higher. 

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12 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I'd say a general 6-10 is a good starting point.... if guidances continues to be amped up tonight and tomorrow... those numbers can slowly start to rise

grow a pair. what else do you need here to go 10-16" ? 

excuse 1: need more than just nam

excuse 2: wish the cmc showed something

excuse 3: gfs op is weaker even if gefs are nw and stronger

excuse 4: wish the euro came on board

excuse 5: still have 48hrs left anything can happen? 

excuse 6: omg radar does not look good?

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3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

70209/1200Z  48  02010KT  31.0F  SNOW   11:1| 2.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.179   11:1|  2.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.18  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170209/1500Z  51  03013KT  31.0F  SNOW   11:1| 3.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.304   11:1|  5.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.48  100|  0|  0
170209/1800Z  54  36014KT  25.4F  SNOW    8:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.168   10:1|  6.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.65  100|  0|  0
170209/2100Z  57  34013KT  23.6F  SNOW   25:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.069   12:1|  8.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.72  100|  0|  0
170210/0000Z  60  33014KT  18.2F  SNOW   11:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.023   12:1|  8.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.74  

That's very hard to read . What's it saying?

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3 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

That's very hard to read . What's it saying?

170209/1600Z  52  02013KT  24.7F  SNOW   15:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016   15:1|  0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02  
170209/1700Z  53  02012KT  24.9F  SNOW   18:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.067   18:1|  1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08  
170209/1800Z  54  02012KT  24.7F  SNOW   18:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.106   18:1|  3.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.19  
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170209/1900Z  55  01013KT  23.4F  SNOW   14:1| 3.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.217   16:1|  6.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.41 
170209/2000Z  56  36014KT  21.3F  SNOW   13:1| 2.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.177   15:1|  8.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.58  
170209/2100Z  57  36015KT  19.5F  SNOW    9:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.087   14:1|  9.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.67  
170209/2200Z  58  35015KT  18.2F  SNOW   30:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.054   15:1| 11.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.72  
170209/2300Z  59  34015KT  17.7F  SNOW   26:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022   16:1| 11.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.75  
170210/0000Z  60  34014KT  18.2F  SNOW   22:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010   16:1| 11.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.76  
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170210/0100Z  61  34014KT  18.4F  SNOW   18:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006   16:1| 12.0|                 0.77
Date/hour    FHr  Wind    SfcT   Ptype   SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF    CumSR|TotSN||TotPL||TotZR|| TQPF   
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