TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Still has a nice band running through CNE.... the whole thing is a lot more tame this run though. Pretty obvious by toggling between 12z and?06z that this run was a bit less impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Yup the Nam came back to earth and joined the rest of the guidance. Great track for most and awesome for here. We take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 IMBY QPF when it matters .82 GFS .88 NAM .65 Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, db306 said: Overall.....still a good and somewhat consistent run!! Still a nice hit... but that was definitely a step towards the more tame guidance. Not that anyone actually expected those juiced up runs from the NAM last night to verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 NAM is the only model that gives ENY decent snow.......high confidence forecast!!! I'm feeling a less organized system with 1-3" up this way to 4-8" near the SNE coastal snow belt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 7, 2017 Author Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Still a nice hit... but that was definitely a step towards the more tame guidance. Not that anyone actually expected those juiced up runs from the NAM last night to verify Wait, what? Always go ballz deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 8-12" is nothing to frown upon. maybe some lollies if stuff breaks right but good ole fashioned 1990s coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Wait, what? Always go ballz deep. great job posting this 24 hrs ago, lets make this work out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 14 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Still has a nice band running through CNE.... the whole thing is a lot more tame this run though. Pretty obvious by toggling between 12z and?06z that this run was a bit less impressive Always focus on negatives! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 I saw the wind had backed around to 350 at Logan during best UVM on the NAM's FRH(FOUS) grid and thought -...oh dern, this backed off some. Sure enough, come in here and it's been acknowledged. We enter the headache phase of the game. .. The original wetter more dynamics version could easily still verify, but it's tempting to force a tamer solution. The "tone" of the 'came back to Earth' is okay; and, I understand what it is for and why (for few deeper reasons at that...) But, we should also remember - not that anyone isn't - that this is still a situation in flux? Logically it makes sense to assume the margin scenario is less likely than that which is borne out of the consensus, but there is (obviously) no law in nature that says model x-y-z can't score a coup d'etat from time to time. In fact, every dog model has had that day. Even the GGEM scored a two or three weeks ago with that coastal - never deviated, models joined in from 4 or 5 days out! It could still flatten more or come back so ...when we say 'come back to Earth' let's be careful. Remember the mid January event from 2014... it was similar sceanrio with an open wave the models all but completely smashed to a forgotten yester-depiction until it was 24 hours out and boom - all models tsunami-ing toward a higher impact with like 18 to 24 room to spare. One argument: west Atlantic ridging and/or perennial height wall just imposing more of a NW track ...particularly if convection gets going earlier on and there is a latent heat budget that gets lopped down stream... Lot of moving parts... Maybe this run is showing more convective contamination whereas the previous cycles seemed to correct for that more? The list goes on ... I happen to leave the options on the table - If this thing advisories out than so be it, but these needle thread west Atlantic jobs tend to need a closer temporal evaluation for many of the above reasons and then some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Always focus on negatives! Hes a special one. gonna poo poo this for another 12-14" jack. I get the cautious approach, esp with pros. But once in a while let your weenie fly loose, who cares who or what it hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Always focus on negatives! Not negative.... realistic. what part of what I said is incorrect? It wasn't as good as prior runs... period. Doesn't mean it isn't a good hit still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Not negative.... realistic. what part of what I said is incorrect? It wasn't as good as prior runs... period. Doesn't mean it isn't a good hit still while true, you always swing as the op solutions. youre gonna bite your nails at hr 6 as the stuff moves and post how "gfs cut back from 12 to 10" and still end up with a foot. look at the bigger picture dood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 christ sake, if I had feb 15 like se ma id be like james by now lol. ok thats a stretch...but damn, some east folks just suck. grow a pair and live a little, have some fun, let the pickle breathe...dont constrict yourself with tighty whities, free ball it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 4km looks interesting , that band NW means business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: christ sake, if I had feb 15 like se ma id be like james by now lol. ok thats a stretch...but damn, some east folks just suck. grow a pair and live a little, have some fun, let the pickle breathe...dont constrict yourself with tighty whities, free ball it. LOL ease back on the throttle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 I see 2 main possibilities. NAM ticks SE and other guidance ticks NE and they compromise in the middle or NAME slowly adjusts toward a Euro / GFS blend. Leaning towards the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 7, 2017 Author Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: LOL ease back on the throttle Yup. Nothing he wrote is incorrect. Emotions are high as are some expectations. Models were struggling with the amplifying PNA ridge and it became clearer yesterday that the trend was there for a larger system with Ensm being more robust that Op runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 The parallel NAM still goes wild on the 12Z run, that did not seem to back off at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 RGEM looks tasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: RGEM looks tasty Yeah esp for southeastern half of SNE, but everyone would prob get at least advisory on that....of course, RGEM at 48h caveats...but solution isn't really out of line with other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah esp for southeastern half of SNE, but everyone would prob get at least advisory on that....of course, RGEM at 48h caveats...but solution isn't really out of line with other guidance. There are definitely signs...even on that sim radar image, of a band well NW of the QPF axis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: The parallel NAM still goes wild on the 12Z run, that did not seem to back off at all. It was 8mb stronger then its 06z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah esp for southeastern half of SNE, but everyone would prob get at least advisory on that....of course, RGEM at 48h caveats...but solution isn't really out of line with other guidance. It's quite a bit deeper than the NAM at the surface. Could be timing differences though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 please let this one crush all of the interior, I would rather a wiff than 2-5 while 40 miles east gets a foot and 2-3/hr rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 7, 2017 Author Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: It's quite a bit deeper than the NAM at the surface. Could be timing differences though. It's just a bit SE of the NAM and as you stated far deeper than the it too. 988mb vs 998mb. RGEM would be big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: It was 8mb stronger then its 06z run Thanks i just quickly glanced at it while at work, and fwiw the RPM jumped on board with its latest run gives warning snowfall to a good chunk of SNE with a significant shift of LP to the NW, just a hair SE of the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Thanks i just quickly glanced at it while at work, and fwiw the RPM jumped on board with its latest run gives warning snowfall to a good chunk of SNE with a significant shift of LP to the NW, just a hair SE of the BM. It looks to set up a pretty sweet looking band well back NW from the surface low over the interior areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 7, 2017 Author Share Posted February 7, 2017 Pretty sick look at 5h on the 48h RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.