RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Trough is a tad bit sharper/deeper, its close at h5 but still meh solution. 12/6 Curveballs for forecasters, unless gefs follow id still red flag this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 FWIW the RGEM looks pretty similar to the GFS at 48 hours. But keep in mind that RGEM isn't that great at 48h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 I don't buy into the GFS solutions, because the ensemble means don't show it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, dryslot said: Not as good at the surface but the 0z GFS was better at H5 with the trough agree. Think we see better steps at 12z once tomorrows system starts getting out the effing way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: FWIW the RGEM looks pretty similar to the GFS at 48 hours. But keep in mind that RGEM isn't that great at 48h. neither is the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Not as good at the surface but the 0z GFS was better at H5 with the trough Yea, looks great at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 This is fun to appreciate from the 0z NAM. Haven't seen lift like that in quite a while. That would yield for some pretty fun snow rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, looks great at H5. wish we lived there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, looks great at H5. Like so many in the past have.....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said: neither is the NAM Correct. That is why the NAM is mostly fodder at this point. It's interesting though to see the two models go opposite trends at 00z. Not just straight solutions but the trend was opposite. That doesn't help much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 GFS always does this close to an event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 GFS is an even bigger whiff than 18z... maybe the cape beaches get an inch or two this run. Ensembles look good... but the op runs keep coming in worse on every model except the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, Snow88 said: GFS always does this close to an event Yeah... this sounds like weenie fodder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Whiffle Although the QPF is silly. Saturated DGZ with 20 ubar lift and it only spits out 0.01" That makes no sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, looks great at H5. Will head up there to shovel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I don't buy into the GFS solutions, because the ensemble means don't show it. Well we don't know what the 00z ensemble means are yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 hopefully the NAM can get a win, but I'm doubtful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, Bostonseminole said: hopefully the NAM can get a win, but I'm doubtful This... seeing the first real model of the 00z suite go south isn't a great sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: GFS always does this close to an event Blizzard of '13 springs to mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Well we don't know what the 00z ensemble means are yet. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 I'm tossing GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 hour ago, Go Kart Mozart said: How often is NAM on its own against the globals at this range...and right? We are to believe a 10" snow storm lasting six hours? That happens all the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 The Sable Island ponies will get the jack on that gfs run. I think that will come in some in the next few cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 GGEM is a clean whiff again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Canadian is a whiff.... 0-2. NAM is tossed as far as the eye can see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: GGEM is a clean whiff again. It's interesting to me that it hasn't bit on this threat at all to date - given it's tendency to amp up everything in sight that's got to be at least somewhat of a caution flag to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Canadian is a whiff.... 0-2. NAM is tossed as far as the eye can see CMC never showed a storm. It's closer to the coast this run so maybe it's finally coming on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Canadian is a whiff.... 0-2. NAM is tossed as far as the eye can see Lol...you're tossing the NAM, Ray is tossing the GFS. Who will be right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, Snow88 said: CMC never showed a storm. It's closer to the coast this run so maybe it's finally coming on board. Honestly.... you're reaching... the NAM is the only thing showing more than a light event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 The GFS AND Canadian aren't even showing a light event...they're misses completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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