RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, JC-CT said: We'll get a king if you want to join Prefer less personal space, a full will do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: We still see precipitation amounts of 1.25" I know it can be exciting, but 1. it's the NAM, and 2. models tend to overestimate QPF in the dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, OceanStWx said: I know it can be exciting, but 1. it's the NAM, and 2. models tend to overestimate QPF in the dry slot. Really they do, aren't they more convective? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 This solution really doesn't mean much except maybe increase confidence that the whiff solutions were too far SE. That's about all you can take from this run of the NAM well outside of its wheelhouse. Clown maps are pretty to look at though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Really they do, aren't they more convective? You can get convection, but rarely is the QPF as widespread as the models say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Some of those clown maps include tomorrow's snow/IP. No? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, Hazey said: Some of those clown maps include tomorrow's snow/IP. No? Yeah probably..esp up in CNE/NNE. But it's still a huge hit in CNE under that band this run. But that type of detail is totally meaningless right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajisai Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 I'll take the positive trend. Anyone going to be up for the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Mmm. Hate to say but the old lessons about the NAM picking out the thickness gradient particulars and developing things accordingly ... sticks out here. It does really well with these fresh baro clinic zones when they lined up on the marine continental interface like that; plenty of examples of that history. I suspect the fact that this cold air mass coming in on the backside Tuesday's thing is so fresh boundaries are well defined/steep. Nam is just going drive convective sequencing earlier on in this things lifecycle. I just think there's a tremendous amount of numerical instability in having that fresh bear clinic axes stuck on the western gstream interface with the continent and then running all that wind energy over the top of that I'm actually shocked the euro didn't pick that out better which is very odd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This solution really doesn't mean much except maybe increase confidence that the whiff solutions were too far SE. That's about all you can take from this run of the NAM well outside of its wheelhouse. Clown maps are pretty to look at though. We haven't gotten to look at many clown maps lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 32 minutes ago, dryslot said: Its 6"+ for a lot of the region Wait...you changed your avatar?!? Great googly moogly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 31 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Congrats Dendrite. I like seeing the NAM do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Yeah probably..esp up in CNE/NNE. But it's still a huge hit in CNE under that band this run. But that type of detail is totally meaningless right now. Yup just wanted to clarify. Lots of pretty colours but that encompasses the total precipitation and not just from this one storm. Anyway moot point as it's just one model solution. Needs supporting models to be believable imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just thrilled to have something interesting to track. Let's keep the juju rolling. Won't really hone in until the SW is on shore tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Wait...you changed your avatar?!? Great googly moogly Yes, Still in shock................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 NAM can't be right. It covers thall grass in Albany. Impossible. I still think a whiff is a real possibility....although it's nice to see a fun model run, I'm waiting to see more models bite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 I'm hedging towards a plowable event....but if I had to pick big of whiff, then I'd go big. http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2017/02/nuisance-to-rain-for-parade-tuesday-am.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Nam is on a cracked high, those rates are epic. With ratios in Dendrite land yowzer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 7, 2017 Author Share Posted February 7, 2017 The SLP is responding nicely to the changes at 5h. That ridge out W is beautiful. Storm evolution keeps slowing down allowing the northern stream do dive in and do the dirty work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 SOme gefs members showed what the nam threw out there so I'm definitely not tossing it. Nam might be on to something here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Yes Bob, we want the northern stream to catch up with the southern stream energy right over the gulf stream, as Tip said, the wind energy moving over the baroclinic zone right over the western wall of the Gulf Stream and especially warmer eddies within the 40N latitude lines near 68-70W longitude lines, we could see the storm ramp up quickly as the NAM advertises, which is why we should abandon the model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, Powderboy413 said: SOme gefs members showed what the nam threw out there so I'm definitely not tossing it. Nam might be on to something here That was my next point, the fact that four members of the GEFS mean show this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Winds could really ramp upwards if the NAM is correct. 60-70mph gusts, sustained winds at 40-55mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 GFS may be a bit better than the 18z run, but it definitely isn't going to look like the NAM. Edit: It's actually worse for us. Basically a whiff, south coast gets an inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 still weak and a bit warmer actually heading into the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 This run might actually be worse than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Nam tossed for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 buzz kill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Not as good at the surface but the 0z GFS was better at H5 with the trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Whiffle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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