HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 On 2/8/2017 at 6:28 PM, codfishsnowman said: I heard all kinds of hip hip horrays for the gfs a few pages back, not ok for nw mass? Expand GFS was good for all in SNE. I'd lock it in if I could. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 On 2/8/2017 at 5:40 PM, dendrite said: Kuchera ousside. Howbowdat. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 On 2/8/2017 at 6:28 PM, codfishsnowman said: I heard all kinds of hip hip horrays for the gfs a few pages back, not ok for nw mass? Expand It was pretty good for everyone. NW MA gets the least..but they do on all model guidance. But it still gave them 6-8"...maybe more depending on banding/ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 On 2/8/2017 at 6:28 PM, codfishsnowman said: I heard all kinds of hip hip horrays for the gfs a few pages back, not ok for nw mass? Expand You live in Central Mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 After 12z.... I feel pretty confident in 8-10+ in my location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 On 2/8/2017 at 6:33 PM, Damage In Tolland said: You live in Central Mass Expand I wouldn't classify springfield metro as C MA. They are pretty far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 On 2/8/2017 at 6:10 PM, The 4 Seasons said: No it's not...Wxbell has a 15:1 panel and when you enable that it is showing 16-18" amounts across SNE, when you enable kuchera its 23-25". And the total QPF across SNE is 1.1-1.2" so unless my math is horrible wrong thats 20:1 ratios Expand exactly its so obvious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 It's amazing how much power the Euro still holds in the minds when it drops a sick run. It really gets the people going more than any other model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 On 2/8/2017 at 6:36 PM, powderfreak said: It's amazing how much power the Euro still holds in the minds when it drops a sick run. It really gets the people going more than any other model. Expand So True. That whole 12z suite was Sweet though for most of SNE. I think we are good to go with this one..let's get it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 The 95% percentiles for WPC across SNE indicating extreme worst case senario are 12s 13s and 14s which actually might end being quite a bit low if things work out perfectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 On 2/8/2017 at 6:16 PM, ORH_wxman said: As much as I love a long duration storm...something about the very intense fast movers gets the adrenaline flowing. It's like 2/5/01 but with an almost optimal thermal profile. Expand I prefer intense slow-movers. On 2/8/2017 at 6:28 PM, codfishsnowman said: I heard all kinds of hip hip horrays for the gfs a few pages back, not ok for nw mass? Expand It's better than everything else except maybe the UK On 2/8/2017 at 6:34 PM, ORH_wxman said: I wouldn't classify springfield metro as C MA. They are pretty far west. Expand You need a map, son. Temp ticking back at the Pit. 41.4 off of 42.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 On 2/8/2017 at 6:36 PM, powderfreak said: It's amazing how much power the Euro still holds in the minds when it drops a sick run. It really gets the people going more than any other model. Expand The euro may struggle at times with temps and what not, but it is still the most conservative model when it comes to big snow forecasts. It takes something pretty good to get it to go gangbusters in the short term....occasionally it barfs ala Jan 2015, but it's hard to ignore it when it goes to town. It's not like the NAM or RGEM which can have a bit of a wet bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 On 2/8/2017 at 6:36 PM, powderfreak said: It's amazing how much power the Euro still holds in the minds when it drops a sick run. It really gets the people going more than any other model. Expand We all fell hook line and sinker Jan 26th 2015 when it was pretty much the only model (save NAM) showing a widspread 2ft+ across the LHV W MA, CT and NYC and we all got burned so so bad, i think that is one of the worst busts of all time i can remember, much worse than Mar 4-6 01, that actually didnt end up being too bad ata ll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 On 2/8/2017 at 6:34 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: After 12z.... I feel pretty confident in 8-10+ in my location Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 On 2/8/2017 at 6:34 PM, ORH_wxman said: I wouldn't classify springfield metro as C MA. They are pretty far west. Expand Maybe west central. But his climo is nothing like NW Mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 8, 2017 Author Share Posted February 8, 2017 On 2/8/2017 at 6:39 PM, ORH_wxman said: The euro may struggle at times with temps and what not, but it is still the most conservative model when it comes to big snow forecasts. It takes something pretty good to get it to go gangbusters in the short term....occasionally it barfs ala Jan 2015, but it's hard to ignore it when it goes to town. It's not like the NAM or RGEM which can have a bit of a wet bias. Expand Considering we are under 24h from onset too, you can't ignore it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 On 2/8/2017 at 6:39 PM, moneypitmike said: You need a map, son. Expand Lol...CEF is like 40-45 miles west of ORH...that means BOS should be classified as central MA if you're thinking CEF is central MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 On 2/8/2017 at 6:41 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Maybe west central. But his climo is nothing like NW Mass Expand Nobody claimed it was...he was responding to Hippyvalley's post when he mentioned NW MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 On 2/8/2017 at 6:42 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: Considering we are under 24h from onset too, you can't ignore it. Expand ya about 14 hours from onset in a lot of places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 On 2/8/2017 at 6:40 PM, The 4 Seasons said: We all fell hook line and sinker Jan 26th 2015 when it was pretty much the only model (save NAM) showing a widspread 2ft+ across the LHV W MA, CT and NYC and we all got burned so so bad, i think that is one of the worst busts of all time i can remember, much worse than Mar 4-6 01, that actually didnt end up being too bad ata ll Expand agreed 100 pct, worst kool aid ever and I remember saying to myself it had a 1/22/05 kinda feel to it that morning but even the normally conservative local stations were going 15-22 and higher! the other thing I thought about was what were the odds of the bowels of death valley having a third (jan 11, feb 13) gargantuan event in five years? unheard of relative to climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 On 2/8/2017 at 6:43 PM, ORH_wxman said: Nobody claimed it was...he was responding to Hippyvalley's post when he mentioned NW MA. Expand He lumps himself in with them . He claims he's in their screwzone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 On 2/8/2017 at 6:53 PM, Damage In Tolland said: He lumps himself in with them . He claims he's in their screwzone Expand Big difference in sensible weather between Greenfield and Springfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 On 2/8/2017 at 6:54 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said: Big difference in sensible weather between Greenfield and Springfield. Expand I do not lump myself in with them but they have had it every bit as bad comparatively speaking. If I really average 50 inches/year I am below normal since I moved up this way winter 04-05....If I really average 45 inches/year then I am just about an inch below normal or we can call that noise... If the truth is this area averages 40 inches/year then I am slightly above normal the last 13 years I definitely have been averaging less than bdl during this past 13 years I am well aware Greenfield averages 55-60 per season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 On 2/8/2017 at 6:53 PM, Damage In Tolland said: He lumps himself in with them . He claims he's in their screwzone Expand you make generalizations and accusations which are often very inaccurate now have I had it as bad as the folks in eastern ny/parts of vt? absolutely not, they are having bad luck for snow lovers that I wouldn't wish on my worst enemy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Not to be a pest but since I am mostly out of this party I haven't been paying close attention. I have a colleague who has to dive down to New Haven, CT tomorrow for a funeral. What time is this projected to start and end. Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Was just peaking at some higher res mid-level data on the plym site. Pretty much pure deformation here with the axis of dilatation lined up from CT to PWM. Of course H7 is tilted a little NW of that. H6 is more up toward me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 On 2/8/2017 at 7:03 PM, codfishsnowman said: I do not lump myself in with them but they have had it every bit as bad comparatively speaking. If I really average 50 inches/year I am below normal since I moved up this way winter 04-05....If I really average 45 inches/year then I am just about an inch below normal or we can call that noise... If the truth is this area averages 40 inches/year then I am slightly above normal the last 13 years I definitely have been averaging less than bdl during this past 13 years I am well aware Greenfield averages 55-60 per season Expand Everyone in WNE has been absolutely schooled by ENE the past few years. I don't even know what to say about E.NY and S. VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 This is from OKX AFD... Operational models are in decent agreement with the track and timing, with the 00Z GFS faster than the others. QPF is also in good agreement, with generally between 0.60"-1.00" of liquid equivalent. This translates to 6"-10" of snow across the area. I wonder why they are going with a straight 10:1 across the area. Seems a bit lazy forecasting? I don't expect crazy 20 or 22:1 but 12-14:1 sounds reasonable especially inland, id like to take a look at bufkit later this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 On 2/8/2017 at 7:09 PM, dendrite said: Was just peaking at some higher res mid-level data on the plym site. Pretty much pure deformation here with the axis of dilatation lined up from CT to PWM. Of course H7 is tilted a little NW of that. H6 is more up toward me. Expand is that good? is that the far interior band that was being discussed yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 On 2/8/2017 at 7:09 PM, dendrite said: Was just peaking at some higher res mid-level data on the plym site. Pretty much pure deformation here with the axis of dilatation lined up from CT to PWM. Of course H7 is tilted a little NW of that. H6 is more up toward me. Expand Thanks for bringing the thread back to where it belongs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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