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February 9th Coastal Storm Discussion


Baroclinic Zone

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  On 2/8/2017 at 5:21 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Im not a stud with soundings yet so correct me if im wrong..Drool worthy ?

 

IMG_2237.PNG

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Yes, that is really good...you have the max omega lining up with the optimal snow growth temps. Classic "Cross hair sig"...you also have an isothermal layer near -10C, which is on the warmer edge of the good snow growth range...so thats good too.

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  On 2/8/2017 at 5:24 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Yes, that is really good...you have the max omega lining up with the optimal snow growth temps. Classic "Cross hair sig"...you also have an isothermal layer near -10C, which is on the warmer edge of the good snow growth range...so thats good too.

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Cool, thanks. I have a few sites been taking notes from, so now I'm quizzing myself. 

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  On 2/8/2017 at 6:00 AM, CoastalWx said:

I thought that too. Looked like a great hit.

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Yeah I was pretty pleased with that run. There's almost a spurious piece of vorticity that strengthens out ahead of the main show around 30 hours. Not sure if that's real or not...if it isn't, then this would be tucked even closer.

 

Either way, that has the look of a pretty major hit for at least the eastern 2/3rds of the region.

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  On 2/8/2017 at 6:10 AM, H2Otown_WX said:

Yawn, all I need is a tick east at 12z and another at 00z tomorrow night and this will be yet another 3-4" event here.

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God, you're such a Debbie. You're gonna Debbie yourself all the way to a foot, Debbie.

 

ECMWF is nice. 00Z suite came in overall very well no drastic changes either way which is a good sign...I really doubt a few models with ticks E indicate any kind of trend, but well see at the 12Z cycle tomorrow.

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  On 2/8/2017 at 6:41 AM, The 4 Seasons said:

God, you're such a Debbie. You're gonna Debbie yourself all the way to a foot, Debbie.

 

ECMWF is nice. 00Z suite came in overall very well no drastic changes either way which is a good sign...I really doubt a few models with ticks E indicate any kind of trend, but well see at the 12Z cycle tomorrow.

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:lol: 8" will do here I think. That's pretty much a HECS for me given how the last 3 years have gone.

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  On 2/8/2017 at 6:36 AM, H2Otown_WX said:

Thanks Ray. Not nearly the cut back I thought based on the description of the pbp.

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Those ratios being applied with Kuchera are more than 15:1 in many places in CT, closer to 17 or 18:1...if you saw the straight 10:1 map or the qpf map, you might cryin' a lil bit inside.

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  On 2/8/2017 at 6:44 AM, H2Otown_WX said:

:lol: 8" will do here I think. That's pretty much a HECS for me given how the last 3 years have gone.

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Did you know....this is the FIRST WINTER STORM WATCH for Fairfield County in over 2 years, the last one was Feb 1st storm and for New Haven County its been almost 2 years with Mar 1st 2015 storm...

 

I do agree your area has got screwed in a lot of events recently Jan 26 2015, Jan 23 2016 and Jan 7th 2017 to name a few

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  On 2/8/2017 at 6:45 AM, The 4 Seasons said:

Those ratios being applied with Kuchera are more than 15:1 in many places in CT, closer to 17 or 18:1...if you saw the straight 10:1 map or the qpf map, you might cryin' a lil bit inside.

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and if the snow growth isn't as good then result is different, I think just about everything has shifted east and another 20 miles or so and its groundhog day all over again.

outside of the nam, folks further nw have a lot to be concerned about regarding a big event and not a jackpot, his concerns are very well waranted

I think the writing is on the wall with this, will not be anything particularly memorable nw of bdl to nw of orh but orh will do fine and of course pts s/e

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  On 2/8/2017 at 7:17 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Just a tiny bit concerning the 0z suite began to shift best stuff east a touch for those with ptsd from jan 15. euro looks rgemish. well see though if its just the usual goal post fluctuations or shades of the Messanger east tick. 

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agreed 

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  On 2/8/2017 at 7:20 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Of course TauntingFlizzard jacks on euro. gonna meh his way to 18", say he was wrong, and do the exact same thing next storm. lol.

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this is totally heading that way, the only thing for you is that if this thing gets its act together better to your sw that you may very well get in on some of the better goods before it gets shunted east and destroys the jan 15 zones

this has a better look for all of the nyc metro area imo

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Nam looked better than 00z especially for eastern areas,  Vort looked better and trough really digs well. The progressive flow keeps things a bit in check, however.  If the total duration of the storm is 10 hours, and we have maybe 5-6 hours of the real good dynamics here in this area if the interior is pretty hard to forecast much more than 6-10, but recognizing that if some of the banding really went hog wild there could be some 12+ amounts.  I would think 8 or 9 is a reasonable expectation around here as long as we dont get a last minute shaft job shift too far east

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