Hoth Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Dios mio, RGEM. Can we lock please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 On 2/8/2017 at 3:56 AM, Ginx snewx said: Oh yeah climo peak is a great week to be born too. Let's hope that the RGEM scores like it did in Feb 15. Thanks man Expand A deep snow cover is in place as your 60th dawns Friday-cold too-the ultimate long live winter kind of day just for you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 On 2/8/2017 at 3:54 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, NAM is too amped....disregard that portion of my last post. Just getting caught up....crazy day. Expand Actually, I was thinking the opposite. Not necessarily that the NAM wasn't amped enough, but that it (and the other models) were underplaying the strength of the shortwave and an amped solution makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 I just love that discussions are centered around beastly or beastlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 On 2/8/2017 at 4:01 AM, weathafella said: A deep snow cover is in place as your 60th dawns Friday-cold too-the ultimate long live winter kind of day just for you! Expand Yea that cold Friday looks more impressive every run, sneaky cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 On 2/8/2017 at 4:01 AM, OceanStWx said: Actually, I was thinking the opposite. Not necessarily that the NAM wasn't amped enough, but that it (and the other models) were underplaying the strength of the shortwave and an amped solution makes sense. Expand How was RGEM initialization? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 On 2/8/2017 at 4:05 AM, Ginx snewx said: How was RGEM initialization? Expand Our RGEM domain doesn't go that far west, but the GGEM was like the other model guidance. Too weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 On 2/4/2017 at 3:10 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Maybe we sneak something in over the next few weeks... I definitely wouldn't count on it though. Looks pretty meh overall Expand On 2/4/2017 at 3:52 PM, Damage In Tolland said: No reason to get invested. Just accept the crappy hand winter dealt us all and move on Expand On 2/4/2017 at 4:16 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: next wknd bears to watch imo. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 On 2/8/2017 at 4:01 AM, OceanStWx said: Actually, I was thinking the opposite. Not necessarily that the NAM wasn't amped enough, but that it (and the other models) were underplaying the strength of the shortwave and an amped solution makes sense. Expand I'm not worried about that yet.....development so often slows at the last moment. I can see this kicking east a bit late in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 What is the deal with Kuchera? Is that a weenie algorithm, or is it viable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 On 2/8/2017 at 4:11 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: What is the deal with Kuchera? Is that a weenie algorithm, or is it viable? Expand Viable in the sense that it tries to account for warm layers aloft, but still can suffer by not dampening the ratios enough in sleet soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 On 2/8/2017 at 4:11 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: What is the deal with Kuchera? Is that a weenie algorithm, or is it viable? Expand I have found it to be pretty good,others don't like it but it is not bad. Wish we had RGEM for Bufkit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 On 2/8/2017 at 4:11 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: What is the deal with Kuchera? Is that a weenie algorithm, or is it viable? Expand Steve has the exact details, but it factors in temps aloft though as Oceanwx pointed out, it can be off in its math. It is better than the std though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 On 2/8/2017 at 4:15 AM, Ginx snewx said: I have found it to be pretty good,others don't like it but it is not bad. Wish we had RGEM for Bufkit Expand yea I wanted to see soundings for the ect heads as the stinger is overhead. That just looks like 4-5"hr type stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 What time do we expect Uncle /Canadian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 On 2/8/2017 at 4:20 AM, Hoth said: What time do we expect Uncle /Canadian? Expand 11:45 for Ukie, Canadian is already out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 GGEM is SE but still dumps CT river SE . GGEM has been out of this one since the get go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 The example I keep using is for a warm layer of +1C. The Kuchera method if your max temp aloft is warmer than -2C would say your ratio is 12 + 2*(271.16-MaxTemp) Now a +1C warm layer is most likely sleet. But Kuchera would say 12 + 2*(-3) = 6:1. That's pretty damn high for a sleet ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 On 2/8/2017 at 4:22 AM, Ginx snewx said: GGEM is SE but still dumps CT river SE . GGEM has been out of this one since the get go Expand It's actually slowly coming to life....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Ukie out to 36 on plymouth state (not sfc, but other levels)....it looks pretty zonked. I'd expect a big hit when the rest of the maps come out on meteocentre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 On 2/8/2017 at 4:22 AM, OceanStWx said: The example I keep using is for a warm layer of +1C. The Kuchera method if your max temp aloft is warmer than -2C would say your ratio is 12 + 2*(271.16-MaxTemp) Now a +1C warm layer is most likely sleet. But Kuchera would say 12 + 2*(-3) = 6:1. That's pretty damn high for a sleet ratio. Expand So as long as mid level temps aren't marginal, its better? As in this event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 On 2/8/2017 at 4:24 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: So as long as mid level temps aren't marginal, its better? As in this event? Expand It's better than a straight 10:1 for sure, and attempts to factor in temps aloft. But it's never as simple as colder temps aloft mean better ratios, etc. But definitely closer than the alternative clown maps out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 On 2/8/2017 at 4:24 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: So as long as mid level temps aren't marginal, its better? As in this event? Expand congrats on a 20 burger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 8, 2017 Author Share Posted February 8, 2017 00z suite looks good, even though the NAM shat itself. Gonna start for the next 15 min to see what Ukie does. Confidence on 6" is around 95%. 10" at 65%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 On 2/8/2017 at 4:29 AM, OceanStWx said: It's better than a straight 10:1 for sure, and attempts to factor in temps aloft. But it's never as simple as colder temps aloft mean better ratios, etc. But definitely closer than the alternative clown maps out there. Expand Cobb and Kuchera are what I have been using for years and blended have had pretry good results, both are showing on average a 14 or 15 to 1 overall ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 On 2/8/2017 at 4:38 AM, Ginx snewx said: Cobb and Kuchera are what I have been using for years and blended have had pretry good results, both are showing on average a 14 or 15 to 1 overall ratio. Expand Cobb is probably the best of the bunch, seeing as it factors in temps, lift, and RH to an extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteLawns Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Uk Met looks good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteLawns Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 First call: http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2017/02/heavy-snows-on-thursday-grow-imminent.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 On 2/8/2017 at 4:29 AM, OceanStWx said: It's better than a straight 10:1 for sure, and attempts to factor in temps aloft. But it's never as simple as colder temps aloft mean better ratios, etc. But definitely closer than the alternative clown maps out there. Expand Oh, yes....SGZ needs to be fully saturated, and between roughly -16-20C.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.