Ginx snewx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 On 2/7/2017 at 5:24 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: Pretty colors but they mean nothing without noting what they indicate. Expand some of us know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 I like that H7 track thru the GOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Best you can hope for in terms of "stalling" is to keep deepening the the shortwave and have it try and capture the low just as it's exploding....then maybe you get an additional 3-4 hours. But this isn't going to be a 18+ hour heavy snow pounding....because even in the vent of a capture or partial capture, though whole trough is going to swing northeast quite quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 We could have snow cover for about 5 days...new record for winter 2016-17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 On 2/7/2017 at 6:30 PM, ORH_wxman said: Best you can hope for in terms of "stalling" is to keep deepening the the shortwave and have it try and capture the low just as it's exploding....then maybe you get an additional 3-4 hours. But this isn't going to be a 18+ hour heavy snow pounding....because even in the vent of a capture or partial capture, though whole trough is going to swing northeast quite quickly. Expand This is a key point in my estimation... Once that L/W axis of the N stream even partially phases, the storm may slow toward the planetary wave speed ... But, there isn't a stall... per se - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 On 2/7/2017 at 6:30 PM, ORH_wxman said: Best you can hope for in terms of "stalling" is to keep deepening the the shortwave and have it try and capture the low just as it's exploding....then maybe you get an additional 3-4 hours. But this isn't going to be a 18+ hour heavy snow pounding....because even in the vent of a capture or partial capture, though whole trough is going to swing northeast quite quickly. Expand Yes. But February 2006 shows you how it can be done with big totals via banding. See parts of CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 On 2/7/2017 at 6:33 PM, weathafella said: Yes. But February 2006 shows you how it can be done with big totals via banding. See parts of CT. Expand Right Jerry, February 2006 wasn't in a blocking pattern it was progressive yet Fairfield, CT got over 30" of snow. That storm was not stalling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 http:// Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 On 2/7/2017 at 6:33 PM, weathafella said: Yes. But February 2006 shows you how it can be done with big totals via banding. See parts of CT. Expand Oh yeah, I'm not trying to say we can't get big totals (I'll define "big as 12"+)...it's just we aren't going to be having a marathon of a storm. It's probably less than 12 hours from first flakes to last...maybe lingering mood snow a little longer in coastal and SE areas. The powerful dynamics shown on the Euro would suggest that someone would likely see 12"+ in the banding wherever it sets up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 All we need is to have banding setup over one location for a 12 hour period and we can get over 2' of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 12z EURO is over 16" for all of the Cape Cod area, less on Nantucket, MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 On 2/7/2017 at 6:35 PM, Damage In Tolland said: http:// Expand That includes today's totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 On 2/7/2017 at 6:37 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said: That includes today's totals? Expand Not for Cape Cod, MA, we got no snow today or tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 On 2/7/2017 at 6:38 PM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Not for Cape Cod, MA, we got no snow today or tomorrow. Expand I think we figured that out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Southern Stream energy entering the US right now on water vapor imagery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 On 2/7/2017 at 6:38 PM, ORH_wxman said: I think we figured that out... Expand Just making sure Will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 7, 2017 Author Share Posted February 7, 2017 On 2/7/2017 at 6:35 PM, Damage In Tolland said: http:// Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 On 2/7/2017 at 6:37 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said: That includes today's totals? Expand I think for those of you who are getting some snow today..it is included I would think. Those of us who aren't getting any snow today, obviously that would be all from the Thursday deal. At least that's how I interpret it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 On 2/7/2017 at 6:37 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said: That includes today's totals? Expand What today's totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Yeah ... again again again ... the 'banding'/frontogen structure of this thing has been in tact since the NAM started this coup almost 36 hours ago frankly. That aspect is also a theoretical slam dunk for an open wave with such a powerful jet core ripping just SE of the area... I think it's a matter of whether this is over land/NW or a sea-fairing event. But man, some of those snow products for western NS are ...30 to 40"? this is obvioiusly evolving toward one of those 'specially' talented type storms that has a history for overproducing when it otherwise looks pedestrian. interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rnaude241 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 On 2/7/2017 at 6:35 PM, Damage In Tolland said: http:// Expand Yes please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 I'd say a general 6-10 is a good starting point.... if guidances continues to be amped up tonight and tomorrow... those numbers can slowly start to rise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 The Kuchera map would imply 15-17:1 ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 On 2/7/2017 at 6:54 PM, JC-CT said: The Kuchera map would imply 15-17:1 ratios Expand 170209/1600Z 52 02013KT 24.7F SNOW 15:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016 15:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 100| 0| 0 170209/1700Z 53 02012KT 24.9F SNOW 18:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.067 18:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08 100| 0| 0 170209/1800Z 54 02012KT 24.7F SNOW 18:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.106 18:1| 3.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.19 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 170209/1900Z 55 01013KT 23.4F SNOW 14:1| 3.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.217 16:1| 6.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.41 100| 0| 0 170209/2000Z 56 36014KT 21.3F SNOW 13:1| 2.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.177 15:1| 8.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.58 100| 0| 0 170209/2100Z 57 36015KT 19.5F SNOW 9:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.087 14:1| 9.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.67 100| 0| 0 170209/2200Z 58 35015KT 18.2F SNOW 30:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.054 15:1| 11.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.72 100| 0| 0 170209/2300Z 59 34015KT 17.7F SNOW 26:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022 16:1| 11.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.75 100| 0| 0 170210/0000Z 60 34014KT 18.2F SNOW 22:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010 16:1| 11.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.76 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 170210/0100Z 61 34014KT 18.4F SNOW 18:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006 16:1| 12.0| Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Wouldn't be surprised to see schools closed both Thursday and Friday if this verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 On 2/7/2017 at 6:51 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I'd say a general 6-10 is a good starting point.... if guidances continues to be amped up tonight and tomorrow... those numbers can slowly start to rise Expand Not bad for a conservative/sensible first guess... The trick is those meso bands ... this is like a general 6" deal with stripes where the rake tongs were more impressive for a few - ..but perhaps not pervasively enough to go higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 On 2/7/2017 at 6:51 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I'd say a general 6-10 is a good starting point.... if guidances continues to be amped up tonight and tomorrow... those numbers can slowly start to rise Expand grow a pair. what else do you need here to go 10-16" ? excuse 1: need more than just nam excuse 2: wish the cmc showed something excuse 3: gfs op is weaker even if gefs are nw and stronger excuse 4: wish the euro came on board excuse 5: still have 48hrs left anything can happen? excuse 6: omg radar does not look good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 On 2/7/2017 at 6:58 PM, Ginx snewx said: 70209/1200Z 48 02010KT 31.0F SNOW 11:1| 2.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.179 11:1| 2.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.18 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 170209/1500Z 51 03013KT 31.0F SNOW 11:1| 3.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.304 11:1| 5.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.48 100| 0| 0 170209/1800Z 54 36014KT 25.4F SNOW 8:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.168 10:1| 6.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.65 100| 0| 0 170209/2100Z 57 34013KT 23.6F SNOW 25:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.069 12:1| 8.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.72 100| 0| 0 170210/0000Z 60 33014KT 18.2F SNOW 11:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.023 12:1| 8.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.74 Expand That's very hard to read . What's it saying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 7, 2017 Author Share Posted February 7, 2017 On 2/7/2017 at 7:00 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: grow a pair. what else do you need here to go 10-16" ? Expand I need 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 On 2/7/2017 at 7:01 PM, JC-CT said: That's very hard to read . What's it saying? Expand 170209/1600Z 52 02013KT 24.7F SNOW 15:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016 15:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 170209/1700Z 53 02012KT 24.9F SNOW 18:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.067 18:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08 170209/1800Z 54 02012KT 24.7F SNOW 18:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.106 18:1| 3.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.19 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 170209/1900Z 55 01013KT 23.4F SNOW 14:1| 3.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.217 16:1| 6.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.41 170209/2000Z 56 36014KT 21.3F SNOW 13:1| 2.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.177 15:1| 8.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.58 170209/2100Z 57 36015KT 19.5F SNOW 9:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.087 14:1| 9.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.67 170209/2200Z 58 35015KT 18.2F SNOW 30:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.054 15:1| 11.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.72 170209/2300Z 59 34015KT 17.7F SNOW 26:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022 16:1| 11.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.75 170210/0000Z 60 34014KT 18.2F SNOW 22:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010 16:1| 11.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.76 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 170210/0100Z 61 34014KT 18.4F SNOW 18:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006 16:1| 12.0| 0.77 Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF CumSR|TotSN||TotPL||TotZR|| TQPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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