Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Models have come into pretty good agreement on a follow up wave impacting the region later this week. Details still to be ironed out but at a Day 3 lead the signal is strong. We have global indices favorable. As you see in the images there is a nice PNA spike and the AO is negative around the time of the storm. I would bot be surprised to see this come a bit closer to the coast with the PNA spiking like it is. Also enclosed are the EPS and GEFS from 00z and 06z. Nice solid >0.5" for most of SNE on the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 nice post to start it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 If it verifies it might mean 3-5 or 5-8 here in ORH from the look of the map. This year something worth getting (semi) excited about. But the "if" is still a pretty big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Ggem you suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Folks were saying the CMC sucks back when it was the only model hitting the colder solution/commitment to the coast a couple weeks ago - it verified that way, too. Which means that model took the trophy on that deal. Just sayn' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 First out of the chute are srefs which may be worse than useless but nevertheless showing a solid hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 It's funny that franken-model GONAPS carries a potent frontogenic signal and deeper impact implied even than the 00z oper. GFS on this thing. And it's got half the CMC genetics... interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's funny that franken-model GONAPS carries a potent frontogenic signal and deeper impact implied even than the 00z oper. GFS on this thing. And it's got half the CMC genetics... interesting... I see what you did there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Yeah... I doubted this thing a couple days ago when it was first suggested by some random run... Folks were a bit, shall we say, too eagerly appeased by the presence in the guidance and being clingy to the idea (shocker, I know..) At the time I mentioned there were synoptic limitations. Namely, the moisture/thermodynamics were being depleted by the tomorrow's system - as it's baroclinic escape would surely leave a dearth of said important factor. But, we notice that this deal for tomorrow has continued to weakened in the guidance. Along with ... its ability to cleanse the atmosphere. This shows up really well in the Euro's pressure pattern post Tuesday's event on its 00z run.. It's barely got a single isobar subtended down the coast now; which changes the landscape a little... Weaker pressure pattern and implied weak backside CAA and it looks as though the actual evac of said dynamics may not be as proficient as it did in the runs a couple days ago. I'm just saying it's not hurting the case for more development... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2017 Author Share Posted February 6, 2017 18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Folks were saying the CMC sucks back when it was the only model hitting the colder solution/commitment to the coast a couple weeks ago - it verified that way, too. Which means that model took the trophy on that deal. Just sayn' Understanding what models are good in particular patterns is helpful too. CMC is tossed in this instance since the GEFS and EPS are in general agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Understanding what models are good in particular patterns is helpful too. CMC is tossed in this instance since the GEFS and EPS are in general agreement. Yeah I don't have a problem with doing that - per se ...the tossing.. It's pretty normal in operational efforts to sans products that unreasonably buck trends - and you're right .. it could certainly be something endemic to the pattern that the GGEM is not very proficient at picking up on.. But, I don't think the GGEM sucks antic is very fair if/when we embrace it so recently when it shows something we want, and just so happens to not show something that is wanted now? That was specifically that that I was hitting at. Having said that, the GGEM does in fact suck - hahaha. But, I mean that based upon years of tragedy ... oy vay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah I don't have a problem with doing that - per se ...the tossing.. It's pretty normal in operational efforts to sans products that unreasonably buck trends - and you're right .. it could certainly be something endemic to the pattern that the GGEM is not very proficient at picking up on.. But, I don't think the GGEM sucks antic is very fair if/when we embrace it so recently when it shows something we want, and just so happens to not show something that is wanted now? That was specifically that that I was hitting at. Having said that, the GGEM does in fact suck - hahaha. But, I mean that based upon years of tragedy ... oy vay Yes, some do latch on to the snowier guidance at the time but most reasonable folk either dont look at the cmc or just take it with a grain of salt with whatever solution it's spitting. I glance at it from time to time for comparisons sake but as I said on Saturday, the texas pandhandle will have a large case of blue balls after a 36" cmc snow solution turns to 2" the following run...and thats exactly what happenned. People like PF will agree that some winters you need the national guard with plows on standbye for its solutions. It had this tendacy to give it all or give nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 51 minutes ago, weathafella said: First out of the chute are srefs which may be worse than useless but nevertheless showing a solid hit. First out of the chute this morning was your enchilada with a 6 number Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: First out of the chute this morning was your enchilada with a 6 number Midnight magic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 nam has mini crusher. nothing more to say or see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 wham bam thank you nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 18 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Using past climo and analogs and GEFS as support. It's a nice looking setup 18 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: The ENS always follow the op. This is going to be a regionwide SNE hit.. and probably up into CNE.. SE ridge flex and baroclinic zone near shore . Invest in this one . Gotta know when to hold.. when to fold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 NAM shellacks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2017 Author Share Posted February 6, 2017 No school Foster/Glocester! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Has that look of big area of 8-12".. couple higher Lollis with enhancements Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 So fat we got the nam and srefs on our side hope the rest of 12z comes in bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Let's see what the GFS comes out with at 12z. NAM was nice though...we take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Has that look of big area of 8-12".. couple higher Lollis with enhancements I'll also stand by thoughts that S coastal areas have Ptype issues for some of storm at least (Jimmy) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 10 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: So fat we got the nam and srefs on our side hope the rest of 12z comes in bullish I guess we toss euro op, eps, gefs ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah I don't have a problem with doing that - per se ...the tossing.. It's pretty normal in operational efforts to sans products that unreasonably buck trends - and you're right .. it could certainly be something endemic to the pattern that the GGEM is not very proficient at picking up on.. But, I don't think the GGEM sucks antic is very fair if/when we embrace it so recently when it shows something we want, and just so happens to not show something that is wanted now? That was specifically that that I was hitting at. Having said that, the GGEM does in fact suck - hahaha. But, I mean that based upon years of tragedy ... oy vay I never embraced the GGEM. It sucks regardless, as you say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2017 Author Share Posted February 6, 2017 84h map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Nice daytime storm too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Nice daytime storm too. The only way to go..I'd rather have 4 during the day than 8 at night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 9 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: The only way to go..I'd rather have 4 during the day than 8 at night Agree. What good is falling snow when you sleep? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Agree. What good is falling snow when you sleep? We all prefer you keep melting and go back to sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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