BL03 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: Those mid 30's will drop well below freezing once those dynamics's kick in! Not necessarily. But we've had good storms with temps of 33-34. Feb 2010 comes to mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 GFS is no Nam through 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Gfs def weaker, probably will look nothing like the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 GFS is further south with the low and weak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 NAM is on its own. Looks to be a minor event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 GFS is weak and South. Barely any precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, snow1 said: NAM is on its own. Looks to be a minor event You can't be serious. One GFS run doesn't change a consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, snow1 said: NAM is on its own. Looks to be a minor event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: You can't be serious. One GFS run doesn't change a consensus. Could be start of a trend, let's see what the euro shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 I thought that the GFS looked better at H5, but it didn't translate to the surface. Trough is deeper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 NAM is an exploding system that blasts the northern Mid-Atlantic through CNE. The GFS is a weak, whisper of a system confined to the immediate coast. Just 60 hours out. The joys of being a forecaster ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Weak and to the south = no dynamic cooling = rain at the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: You can't be serious. One GFS run doesn't change a consensus. The NAM on its own isn't a consensus... no other model shows anything close to the NAM solution. Bad trend that the first real model of the 00z suite looks worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: The NAM on its own isn't a consensus... no other model shows anything close to the NAM solution. Bad trend that the first real model of the 00z suite looks worse What trend? Come on guys, be real here. If the Euro comes in similiar, then it might be time to worry but the GFS is notorious for doing this close to an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Congrats, you can read the GFS. It's also a solution you refuse to admit as a possibility. Plus as before, 35 and snow immediately following a day in the mid to upper 60s at the coast with pitiful snow growth results in an inch of slop on the roads, especially in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: What trend? Come on guys, be real here. If the Euro comes in similiar, then it might be time to worry but the GFS is notorious for doing this close to an event. Euro at 12z was weaker than 00z. It is kind of a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Uncle can't come in quick enough that was a terrible GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, Philadelphia Snow said: Euro at 12z was weaker than 00z. It is kind of a trend. No it isn't Euro was fine for the coast, not inland areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, Philadelphia Snow said: Euro at 12z was weaker than 00z. It is kind of a trend. And we haven't had the ggem on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, Snow88 said: No it isn't Euro was fine for the coast, not inland areas. Euro was 2" of snow, nothing like the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, Stormlover74 said: And we haven't had the ggem on board. True if the gfs trend was real than king cmc? Cmc never really had the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Canadian is a whiff Very consistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Canadian is a whiff Very consistent CMC never showed a storm. It's closer to the coast this run so maybe it's finally coming on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 7 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Canadian is a whiff Very consistent It did move north quite substantially from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Every operational model sucks except the end of the NAM. There will be no storm until and unless things change drastically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Main difference aloft is NAM trough going negatively tilted early in the game. GFS trough is impressive, but stays neutral too late in game. I'd take a compromise at this point. Remember too that SREF has been erratic, lending to the potential of NAM being way too amped and erratic itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 The overall pattern argues an event close to what the Euro has been showing and not anything overly big. I'm somewhat worried though about how relatively consistent the NAM has been. We kept tossing it for the blizzard last year too when all the other models were jumping around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: Every operational model sucks except the end of the NAM. There will be no storm until and unless things change drastically. look at the upper dynamics 500mb not the surface features - surface features models don't handle well in these situations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: look at the upper dynamics 500mb not the surface features I rarely look at the surface, but thanks. Is there anything about my assessment that you disagree with? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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