brooklynwx99 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, dmillz25 said: This is assuming 10:1? Nah I think it takes ratios into account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: Every other model is well SE of this. Jumping on the NAM alone is most of the time. Yes but NAM is no longer the laughing stock it was... Especially at longer ranges Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: No. 1 minute ago, snywx said: No that's the kuchera method 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: Nah I think it takes ratios into account. Thanks guys. Definitely not a "screw job" for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 NYC and proximate points N&W still do very well. A 6-10" storm is a monster this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, snywx said: Aren't the GFS ensembles well nw of the op? They seemed to be all over the place between amped and a sheared out mess like the GGEM has. Just saying the NAM goes crazy sometimes and comes back to earth. The Euro ticked SE from its last run, the GFS is what I just said, and altogether there is a lot of uncertainty. For several runs the NAM had something like 30" in NYC for the Feb 2013 blizzard and reversed itself practically as the storm was underway. I wouldn't weenie out until the more reliable models come on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Won't the position of the low depend on how far south the frontal boundary sags? What factors would influence that progression? What are projected teleconnections? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, White Gorilla said: Won't the position of the low depend on how far south the frontal boundary sags? What factors would influence that progression? What are projected teleconnections? Yes but also a slower solution could mean the trough amplifies like the NAM has and gives the best snow inland. There might also be some interaction with the northern stream which would intensify the low more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 NAM showing coastal front. NNE wind with excellent placement of high to the north combined with ageosteophic flow would produce rapid changeover to snow for much of NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 16 minutes ago, snow1 said: Looks to be turning into a coast screw job Based off what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Based off what? I wouldn't base any forecast off the NAM, gfs and euro should will be telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 19 minutes ago, danstorm said: Feb 2001 is actually a pretty brilliant comparison Just inland say 20 miles we stayed all snow and was a total paste job from late afternoon through the evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 13 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Dude. My season total is 7". Take away the blizzard last year and I've been in a 6 year screw zone. I belong to that screw zone and know what you are saying, dreading the ECM being right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, danstorm said: The jackpot fetish is very real Yeah, many would be happier with less snow as long as they jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Remember the total snow maps include tmrws storm for NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Squid1225 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 19 minutes ago, danstorm said: Yes but NAM is no longer the laughing stock it was... Especially at longer ranges Couldn't agree more...NAM has been lights out this winter....Nailed that sleet storm two weeks ago and everyone was laughing at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 17 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Won't the position of the low depend on how far south the frontal boundary sags? What factors would influence that progression? What are projected teleconnections? Currently, the teleconnections are forecast to be EPO-/PNA+/AO-. Some dates during the 2/1-15/1981-2010 period that saw snowstorms with an EPO-/PNA+/AO- pattern: February 7-8, 1986: 4.5” February 11, 1986: 4.5” February 14, 1986: 0.3” February 9, 1987: 0.4” February 12, 1987: 2.4” February 2-3, 1996: 7.5” February 14, 1996: 2.0” February 5, 2001: 3.5” February 11-12, 2006: 26.9” (2/12 saw the AO go positive) February 2-3, 2010: 1.0” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Just inland say 20 miles we stayed all snow and was a total paste job from late afternoon through the evening That was a real sockdollager of a storm. I was in New Haven, Ct. at the time and we got blasted with 15". Sure, not the 18-24" that areas to my N got, but the dynamics were amazing with that one ... recall that snuck up on folks, as well. 2-3"/hr of heavy wet snow in the late morning/early afternoon, then some sleet and a dry slot, and then another 3-4" on the backside. Definitely in my top 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 The NAM was actually much cooler this run aloft thanks to the stronger dynamics. I think you want a stronger system, even for the immediate coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, danstorm said: That was a real sockdollager of a storm. I was in New Haven, Ct. at the time and we got blasted with 15". Sure, not the 18-24" that areas to my N got, but the dynamics were amazing with that one ... recall that snuck up on folks, as well. 2-3"/hr of heavy wet snow in the late morning/early afternoon, then some sleet and a dry slot, and then another 3-4" on the backside. Definitely in my top 10. Yes I think the forecast in Morristown where I was was 3-6" and most of the morning didn't seem like much but around 3 started to come down heavily. I left work at 4 and didn't get home til 9 and I lived 12 miles away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keno19 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Way too early but confidence for long island GEFS converging around 4-5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Currently, the teleconnections are forecast to be EPO-/PNA+/AO-. Some dates during the 2/1-15/1981-2010 period that saw snowstorms with an EPO-/PNA+/AO- pattern: February 7-8, 1986: 4.5” February 11, 1986: 4.5” February 14, 1986: 0.3” February 9, 1987: 0.4” February 12, 1987: 2.4” February 2-3, 1996: 7.5” February 14, 1996: 2.0” February 5, 2001: 3.5” February 11-12, 2006: 26.9” (2/12 saw the AO go positive) February 2-3, 2010: 1.0” Thank you so much! You are such a fountain of weather knowledge! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: The NAM was actually much cooler this run aloft thanks to the stronger dynamics. I think you want a stronger system, even for the immediate coast. The best case scenario down here is something like the GFS or Euro except a bit stronger so that there's more precip and cold air-something like the 12z NAM today. This last run was really nice but any more amped and the dry slot is overhead, and there's tons of mid level warm air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 FWIW, the NAM shows the following high temperatures on Wednesday ahead of the storm: BDR: 59° FOK: 54° HPN: 62° ISP: 58° EWR: 68° JFK: 62° LGA: 66° MMU: 58° NYC: 67° POU: 54° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: FWIW, the NAM shows the following high temperatures on Wednesday ahead of the storm: BDR: 59° FOK: 54° HPN: 62° ISP: 58° EWR: 68° JFK: 62° LGA: 66° MMU: 58° NYC: 67° POU: 54° Holy guacamole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: FWIW, the NAM shows the following high temperatures on Wednesday ahead of the storm: BDR: 59° FOK: 54° HPN: 62° ISP: 58° EWR: 68° JFK: 62° LGA: 66° MMU: 58° NYC: 67° POU: 54° Doesn't bode well for extremely marginal surface temps near the coast. We need a colder dynamic solution or a Euro solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, mimillman said: Doesn't bode well for extremely marginal surface temps near the coast. We need a colder dynamic solution or a Euro solution. low to mid 30s will do the trick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, Snow88 said: low to mid 30s will do the trick I don't think so. Low to mid 20s, yes. 35 and snow, not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 7, 2017 Author Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, mimillman said: I don't think so. Low to mid 20s, yes. 35 and snow, not so much. Those mid 30's will drop well below freezing once those dynamics's kick in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, mimillman said: I don't think so. Low to mid 20s, yes. 35 and snow, not so much. What makes you think that? We had plenty of storms with 35 and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 GFS already looks more amped out west. 00z 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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