BL03 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 If NYC gets 18-20" from 1.1-1.2" liquid , then this will be amazing. 12" would be a win , more bonus. We'll find out soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, weatherfreeeeak said: I favor this output over the kuchera Definitely. The warm ground still means something-the initial snow will be slushy, and counting on huge ratios is always risky, but this run still supports 12+ for this subforum. But it does shaft places southwest of here towards Philly, it's a matter of how the radar presents and the cold air pressing south. Hopefully all can get in on the fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, danstorm said: It's in the ne forum and is a wet dream - probably a bit overdone but spectacular to look at... Ewr/NYC are 19", LI is 20-23, all of CT is 20+, staggering These sites found a way to make their snow maps more weenieish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Just now, BL03 said: If NYC gets 18-20" from 1.1-1.2" liquid , then this will be amazing. 12" would be a win , more bonus. We'll find out soon. I wouldn't go much over 10-1 given the warm initial conditions. The initial precip will fall as rain, sleet or wet/slow accumulating snow. Hopefully that doesn't account for much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 8 minutes ago, danstorm said: It's in the ne forum and is a wet dream - probably a bit overdone but spectacular to look at... Ewr/NYC are 19", LI is 20-23, all of CT is 20+, staggering Kuchera Euro has a 31 spot over Foxboro/Easton area in SE Mass i mean... have to guess that's forcing it a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Just now, jm1220 said: I wouldn't go much over 10-1 given the warm initial conditions. The initial precip will fall as rain, sleet or wet/slow accumulating snow. Hopefully that doesn't account for much. I'd take a half hour of heavy sleet. Would be beneficial, takes longer to melt and would cool ground surfaces. Radar is very convective and I'd imagine the column will cool rapidly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Kuchera Euro has a 31 spot over Foxboro/Easton area in SE Mass i mean... have to guess that's forcing it a bit Lol ya think? > 18 will be tough methinks but I think odds of >12 are at least 40% for all of okx counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 38/30 currently. When Forky is honking, pay attention. Those 700mb maps he posted show the magnitude of the incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Kuchera Euro has a 31 spot over Foxboro/Easton area in SE Mass i mean... have to guess that's forcing it a bit Your problem in these storms: Coastal front banding or well inland banding. Ours: Watching to the southwest and praying the heavy snow cutoff stops before us when these last minute model shifts inevitably happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 For years, we referred to the snowfall maps as "clown maps." Not sure why this changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Temps back on the rise here in Hoboken. Dropping everywhere but here evidently. Up to nearly 43 degrees, so up 1 degree in 25 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I wouldn't go much over 10-1 given the warm initial conditions. The initial precip will fall as rain, sleet or wet/slow accumulating snow. Hopefully that doesn't account for much. Agreed - going over 10:1, at least for areas which will definitely start as rain to sleet, leading to moderate melting of snow to begin with and to slushier/denser snow once the snow begins to accumulate is not smart to do. Once the first inch or so of snow is down, then higher ratios might occur, especially with dropping surface temps and better snow growth. So one could imagine a ratio of 5-7:1 for the first 0.2-0.3" of LE, then maybe 10:1 for the next 0.2", then maybe 12-14:1 for the last 0.6", which would likely be about 11:1 overall. That's what I'm expecting here. Maybe it'll be 15:1 north of I-80 where it's all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, NYCGreg said: Temps back on the rise here in Hoboken. Dropping everywhere but here evidently. Up to nearly 43 degrees, so up 1 degree in 25 minutes. Relax, this guy comes out of the woodwork every storm with the same misguided anxiety Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycemt123 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Does it pay for me to even try to drive into work in the AM from Rockland County to Westchester/Bronx?Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markyk Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, NYCGreg said: Temps back on the rise here in Hoboken. Dropping everywhere but here evidently. Up to nearly 43 degrees, so up 1 degree in 25 minutes. my wind in Cranford just shifted from the North to the Northeast, I imagine a bit of NYC "heat" coming over your locale briefly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Just now, nycemt123 said: Does it pay for me to even try to drive into work in the AM from Rockland County to Westchester/Bronx? Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk No. Stay home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, markyk said: my wind in Cranford just shifted from the North to the Northeast, I imagine a bit of NYC "heat" coming over your locale briefly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycemt123 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 No. Stay home.It should look bad enough by 6am that I'd be able to qualify my staying home, correct?Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Just now, nycemt123 said: It should look bad enough by 6am that I'd be able to qualify my staying home, correct? Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Probably, should be coming down pretty hard by then by you. And consider the trip back home given what happens in between. Unless it's necessary I'd skip it. I'm still posting because I'm not heading in in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richm20 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 36 deg. NW Nassau! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Wow @ the Central PA radar. Beast incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottB Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 43 here in Brunswick. Temps been steady for a few hours. Dew is at 28. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Shes starting to fire up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Aloft, we still have a ways to go. WAA at 850 mb as we speak.SLP transfer ongoing and should help advect colder air aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 The system's pressure has dropped to about 999 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 29 minutes ago, nycemt123 said: Does it pay for me to even try to drive into work in the AM from Rockland County to Westchester/Bronx? Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk not at all, i gotta drive from Yonkers to White Plains at 7am. should be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycemt123 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Probably, should be coming down pretty hard by then by you. And consider the trip back home given what happens in between. Unless it's necessary I'd skip it. I'm still posting because I'm not heading in in the morning. Understood. Thanks Jm!Random question, you prefer the Texas floods you witnessed or this sort of snowstorm?Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycemt123 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 not at all, i gotta drive from Yonkers to White Plains at 7am. should be fun.As long as you have a dashcam and all wheel drive, it'll be fun Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, nycemt123 said: Understood. Thanks Jm! Random question, you prefer the Texas floods you witnessed or this sort of snowstorm? Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk The snow by far. There just wasn't much enjoyment for me in about a month straight of rain, plus all of the damage the floods caused. Snow is enjoyable for far more people and looks much better on the landscape than mud and debris. After what I witnessed here during Sandy, I'll never root on a hurricane again. Floods are just devastation and misery, snow for the most part is enjoyable. Missing last January's blizzard back home was excruciating. And I followed every bit of it in Austin even from that far away. The pictures and videos from here makes me think it matched Jan 1996. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottB Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Lots of pinging - sleet started here in New Brunswick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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