RU848789 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, danstorm said: Eh not really NNJ What's your point? I said NJ, not NNJ and then discussed some CNJ locations - this forum includes CNJ. Totals look to be decreased for most of NJ (except maybe the Upton NENJ Counties) on at least the NAM and GFS at 0Z vs. 18Z and 12Z. Model accuracy increase, as one gets closer to an event and we're getting pretty close... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 The temps right now near the metro don't worry me at all. We had similar temp/dewpoint spreads before the October 2011 storm as well as the post super bowl storm a couple of years ago and easily cooled off. We also have NNE flow which is way more effective getting cold air into the area than NNW or NW flow is. The dewpoints in CT are in the mid 20s. If anything is an issue it may be a warm layer at 09-11Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: Jeez... Heres the test. If outside your window at 7am it's not snowing heavily, then there's reason to worry about coming in under 8" or so. If it's snowing heavily by then, you should be good for maybe a foot or even more. A lot of this stuff is last minute model noise and trends on the edges that always take place. PHL is essentially where NYC was for Nemo and Juno, and they're the ones who might bust low, I don't see that happening in this area. But we're about to find out who's right and wrong. Hopefully this works out well for all, and appreciate it anyway if you end up with 6 or 7" vs 13". Well said. My area is almost always the dividing line. You don't usually get all the goods, but get some. Sometimes more than others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Jeez... Heres the test. If outside your window at 7am it's not snowing heavily, then there's reason to worry about coming in under 8" or so. If it's snowing heavily by then, you should be good for maybe a foot or even more. A lot of this stuff is last minute model noise and trends on the edges that always take place. PHL is essentially where NYC was for Nemo and Juno, and they're the ones who might bust low, I don't see that happening in this area. But we're about to find out who's right and wrong. Hopefully this works out well for all, and appreciate it anyway if you end up with 6 or 7" vs 13". Hahaha, the good ol' look out the god damn window trick. I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Pesky warm layer might keep accumulations down from ttn-south. I think middlesex county is good for 8-10. NYC and LI will get crushed. It all depends for middlesex county south when we change over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 RGEM has a good 4 to 5 hours of mixing for Middlesex county before it goes over to all snow. That's a big reason why it cut back on snow totals for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Just now, mimillman said: Hahaha, the good ol' look out the god damn window trick. I like it. Well, it does work....nothing like actual observation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Just now, winterwx21 said: RGEM has a good 4 to 5 hours of mixing for Middlesex county before it goes over to all snow. That's a big reason why it cut back on snow totals for us. That's a lot of mixing, this storm isn't that long. I would think that would cut us way back, not just an inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
e46and2 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 dewpoint down to 34 here on the n shore of w suffolk. air temp 39.7, not worried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowjoe99 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 7 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: You're fine. Enjoy the snow thanks man! you too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Ggem better late then never Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 8 minutes ago, RU848789 said: What's your point? I said NJ, not NNJ and then discussed some CNJ locations - this forum includes CNJ. Totals look to be decreased for most of NJ (except maybe the Upton NENJ Counties) on at least the NAM and GFS at 0Z vs. 18Z and 12Z. Model accuracy increase, as one gets closer to an event and we're getting pretty close... Apologies, that was a glib Homer post for a recent transplant to Montclair. I don't think much beyond Uptons NJ counties... Yeah, South of the Driscoll bridge did get cut down somewhat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The temps right now near the metro don't worry me at all. We had similar temp/dewpoint spreads before the October 2011 storm as well as the post super bowl storm a couple of years ago and easily cooled off. We also have NNE flow which is way more effective getting cold air into the area than NNW or NW flow is. The dewpoints in CT are in the mid 20s. If anything is an issue it may be a warm layer at 09-11Z Yeah, I'm starting to wonder how long sleet hangs on where I am. Sleet's hung on longer than expected here in a few of these events (Nemo in Feb 2013 especially). But models are still insisting on a crashing switch to snow and ultimately not losing much anywhere on LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Just now, danstorm said: Apologies, that was a glib Homer post for a recent transplant to Montclair. I don't think much beyond Uptons NJ counties... Yeah, South of the Driscoll bridge did get cut down somewhat And north of the bridge is close to the fire....but it's often this way. Sometimes we get more, sometimes less. It's always dicey for us in these changeover situations...the famous Feb 26 2010 storm left us with 8-12, because it took so long to changeover, when areas north had a lot more. Nemo started as rain too. We even mixed in the March 93 storm, cutting our totals. Where did you transplant from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Yeah, I'm starting to wonder how long sleet hangs on where I am. Sleet's hung on longer than expected here in a few of these events (Nemo in Feb 2013 especially). But models are still insisting on a crashing switch to snow and ultimately not losing much anywhere on LI. Well, even a sleetfest would bemore interesting than what we've had this year so far. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Apologies if this was already posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, mimillman said: Apologies if this was already posted Still looks good. I am literally on the border of Mt Holly's/Uptons area...Has Mt Holly done one yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 German model cut way back on totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Holy cow, SREF mean for Boston jumped nearly 5 INCHES from 15z to 21z. Sitting pretty at near 17.5 now. Pretty incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Still looks good. I am literally on the border of Mt Holly's/Uptons area...Has Mt Holly done one yet? Mount Holly's is below: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Just now, mimillman said: Holy cow, SREF mean for Boston jumped nearly 5 INCHES from 15z to 21z. Sitting pretty at near 17.5 now. Pretty incredible. What did it do for the NYC area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Just now, donsutherland1 said: Mount Holly's is below: Thanks, they are sticking with 8-12, or at least were as of this evening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, NYCGreg said: What did it do for the NYC area? Marginal change, down about 0.5" to 8.83". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Just now, mimillman said: Holy cow, SREF mean for Boston jumped nearly 5 INCHES from 15z to 21z. Sitting pretty at near 17.5 now. Pretty incredible. Not surprising giving the upper air evolution we've seen today which is increasingly better for New England. The problem is the slower creep of the cold air and more amped low which keeps the warm air longer on the SW end of it. The freak outs are going too far but no use in denying this turning more into a 1/12/11 or Nemo kind of event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
husky0101 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 This is from Mount Holly: .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Low pressure is forecast to develop in Virginia during the night and it should pass off the middle Delmarva coast toward daybreak. A mid level trough approaching from the west will provided favorable conditions for the low to deepen rapidly. Already a broad area of precipitation has developed to our west. We expect this precip to move into our region sometime after midnight. Already in the southern Poconos, temperatures are low enough that any precip moving in should be all snow. For the rest of the region however, temperatures have generally been slower to drop than previously forecast, so adjusted the hourly temperatures to match. However, even with the adjustments to the hourly temperatures, timing of the transition of precip type has not changed much. Having said that however, current road/surface temps show a very warm ground, and recent runs of the HRRR and RAP indicate the precip may pull out a bit faster than previously expected. Thus, lowered snow totals across the region slightly. Hesitate to drop them too much before we have even begun to see the effects of dynamic cooling with the low, and once the heavier snow rates develop, they could be enough to overcome any warm ground. Regardless of the snow totals, this still looks to have a major impact for much of the region`s morning commute as that will be when the heaviest snow is expected to occur. A northwest to north wind around 5 to 10 MPH this evening is expected to veer toward the northeast overnight increasing to 10 to 20 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 925mb line has made a little progress into Orange County towards Rockland. 850mb line hasn't budged much in 6 hours. It's right at the 925mb line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 All in all this still seems like a nice storm for a lot of us, am I missing something? What's up with this German model? How many models we gonna use? Surely there is a Japanese one too, how's that look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 18 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Pesky warm layer might keep accumulations down from ttn-south. I think middlesex county is good for 8-10. NYC and LI will get crushed. It all depends for middlesex county south when we change over I think Middlesex is also good for 8-10", maybe up to 12" in Carteret (far NE part of the county), lol, as most of the models are still showing a relatively quick changeover and enough precip (close to 1") total. However, precip amounts look less for Somerset, Hunterdon, and Mercer and there looks to be more rain SE of us in Monmouth, especially near the coast, so all of those locations could end up with 6-8" for total precip and/or mixing reasons. That's if the GFS/NAM are correct. I think you and I get 10" or more if we changeover by 5 am - going to set my alarm for about 4 am, after going to sleep after the Euro, lol. Lee Goldberg and Nick Gregory still bullish on 8-12" for all of CNJ/NNJ (north of about 195) and they're usually pretty good. TWC also has us in their 8-12" swath. Hey, given where we were 2 days ago, 6" will be great, although I'll be bummed a bit, given what was looking to be possible earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: Not surprising giving the upper air evolution we've seen today which is increasingly better for New England. The problem is the slower creep of the cold air and more amped low which keeps the warm air longer on the SW end of it. The freak outs are going too far but no use in denying this turning more into a 1/12/11 or Nemo kind of event. You flipped quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Is the SUNY MM5 still around? It was a very short term model but I always remember it was deadly accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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