MJO812 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 GFS is around 10-12 for NYC with more to the east Game on for this storm Off to bed. Work in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, snow1 said: Trend continues of cutting totals for CNJ It's having a tough time with dynamic cooling. it's never a perfect straight line where these temp gradients setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, snow1 said: Trend continues of cutting totals for CNJ The storm is also trending towards a later bombing out towards Nantucket. That doesn't help once southwest of NYC. Philly might be in trouble and Monmouth south but I still doubt the NYC area is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, snow1 said: Trend continues of cutting totals for CNJ I do see that now, sure, but this was never supposed to be a storm of the century. Up til this afternoon the call on 1010 WINS was 4-8 with a tip toward the higher end. I never believed we were getting a foot. These kinds of storms, in my experience, tend to move fast enough that 8-10 seems to be high end. But I agree, at this point it can't be ignored. But heck, it's still a decent storm for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 I know this will be deleted, but wanted to try to convey my point with some more evidence. 00z and 18z GFS below: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: The storm is also trending towards a later bombing out towards Nantucket. That doesn't help once southwest of NYC. Philly might be in trouble and Monmouth south but I still doubt the NYC area is. Heaviest snows fall during the amplification process.. I'd say someone between SENY/LI, and SCT gets hit hardest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Heaviest snows fall during the amplification process.. I'd say someone between SENY/LI, and SCT gets hit hardest +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The storm is also trending towards a later bombing out towards Nantucket. That doesn't help once southwest of NYC. Philly might be in trouble and Monmouth south but I still doubt the NYC area is. Well that would mean less in Middlesex County as well, which is a big county, but also might mean SI gets less. The more east it goes, the less it's a storm for NJ....obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Very nice RGEM run. The idea of a widespread 8"-14" snowfall in the NYC area (with some higher amounts especially to the north and east of the City) and 6"-10" in central NJ still looks reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, weatherpruf said: Well that would mean less in Middlesex County as well, which is a big county, but also might mean SI gets less. The more east it goes, the less it's a storm for NJ....obviously. Where in middlesex county are you? I'm in Piscataway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, snow1 said: Where in middlesex county are you? I'm in Piscataway Woodbridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 the gfs was east of the euro/nam/rgem on the 12z runs as well. if the euro holds or gets better i would discount it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 I going to go with a solid 6 maybe 7 in Hillsborough..not too bad for me to plow and great timing as its not an overnight storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Just now, forkyfork said: the gfs was east of the euro/nam/rgem on the 12z runs as well. if the euro holds or gets better i would discount it The Euro dropped an inch liquid on some areas in a 6 hour period. How much better coukd it get? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 15 minutes ago, RU848789 said: This plus the drier NAM for NJ and the latest HRRR are at least a little concerning for folks in Central NJ - definitely less to the SW of Middlesex County, towards Trenton/Philly, as we've sometimes seen in these events, due to less precip. Look I'll still be happy with 7-8" but was loving the idea of 12" or so, which I know could still happen, but seeing data like these is at least a bit of a caution. And the 0Z GFS joins the NAM, HRRR and the NWS in lowering snowfall for all of NJ, really, due to less precip as far as I can tell. Still looks like 6-10", but not the 8-14" we were seeing in earlier runs of these models, and could even be less than 6" in places like Mercer County and southern Monmouth, especially if we lose some to sleet/rain. Hopefully it doesn't get even worse than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 the nam improved in the mid levels. stop qpf queening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, winterwarlock said: I going to go with a solid 6 maybe 7 in Hillsborough..not too bad for me to plow and great timing as its not an overnight storm Seems reasonable, but I gotta say it's a bit irritating to see people hyping a huge storm for most of the area all day and now we are leaning back toward what really, for us, is just a normal snowstorm coming after a freakish warm day....I know we are in a big subforum but jeez... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, RU848789 said: And the 0Z GFS joins the NAM, HRRR and the NWS in lowering snowfall for all of NJ, really, due to less precip as far as I can tell. Still looks like 6-10", but not the 8-14" we were seeing in earlier runs of these models, and could even be less than 6" in places like Mercer County and southern Monmouth, especially if we lose some to sleet/rain. Hopefully it doesn't get even worse than that. Jackpot has moved into the HV/LI/CT/NNJ area. Unfortunate for central nj/philly folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, RU848789 said: And the 0Z GFS joins the NAM, HRRR and the NWS in lowering snowfall for all of NJ, really, due to less precip as far as I can tell. Still looks like 6-10", but not the 8-14" we were seeing in earlier runs of these models, and could even be less than 6" in places like Mercer County and southern Monmouth, especially if we lose some to sleet/rain. Hopefully it doesn't get even worse than that. Eh not really NNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowjoe99 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 hey. im kinda new posting on the forums. been a lurker for like 2+ years. but this is my first post. i was wondering if anyone could let me know how my area is "progressing", i guess. wallington, nj. near giants stadium in nenj. im at 41 degrees with a 33 dew point. am i in a good position with the temp fall? like is my area on pace? thanks in advance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, RU848789 said: And the 0Z GFS joins the NAM, HRRR and the NWS in lowering snowfall for all of NJ, really, due to less precip as far as I can tell. Still looks like 6-10", but not the 8-14" we were seeing in earlier runs of these models, and could even be less than 6" in places like Mercer County and southern Monmouth, especially if we lose some to sleet/rain. Hopefully it doesn't get even worse than that. Is the speed the problem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, danstorm said: Eh not really NNJ What do you consider NNJ? To folks down the shore, the Driscoll Bridge is NNJ, and that area is definitely getting less at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Just now, weatherpruf said: Seems reasonable, but I gotta say it's a bit irritating to see people hyping a huge storm for most of the area all day and now we are leaning back toward what really, for us, is just a normal snowstorm coming after a freakish warm day....I know we are in a big subforum but jeez... I think people bought into those Kuchera ratios...why on earth would we see 15-20-1 ratios with this storm, a good idea is to stick with the 10-1 maps....this is still a 6-9 inch storm for central jersey and on the models and 8-12 north of that. All the pro mets and experts and NWS have done a great job right now because they never weenied out with the extreme amounts given the progressiveness....yes someone will get buried and we do not know who gets that delicious lollipop but most will fall in the 6-12 range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Surprised to see NBC have most of Jersey, NYC and LI under 10-15" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, RU848789 said: And the 0Z GFS joins the NAM, HRRR and the NWS in lowering snowfall for all of NJ, really, due to less precip as far as I can tell. Still looks like 6-10", but not the 8-14" we were seeing in earlier runs of these models, and could even be less than 6" in places like Mercer County and southern Monmouth, especially if we lose some to sleet/rain. Hopefully it doesn't get even worse than that. Mixing is a reason for cutting down amounts too. If you look at the RGEM color loop you see a few hours of mixing for Middlesex county before it goes over to all snow. Makes sense ... it's still very warm out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: What do you consider NNJ? To folks down the shore, the Driscoll Bridge is NNJ, and that area is definitely getting less at this point. I consider Woodbridge-Edison the dividing line, so I agree with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, winterwarlock said: I think people bought into those Kuchera ratios...why on earth would we see 15-20-1 ratios with this storm, a good idea is to stick with the 10-1 maps....this is still a 6-9 inch storm for central jersey and on the models and 8-12 north of that. All the pro mets and experts and NWS have done a great job right now because they never weenied out with the extreme amounts given the progressiveness....yes someone will get buried and we do not know who gets that delicious lollipop but most will fall in the 6-12 range You're right, most of the forecasts I've been listening to have been going with 4-8 or a little more, no one was honking a foot or more except possibly in some areas, which do not look to be in CNJ right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, snowjoe99 said: hey. im kinda new posting on the forums. been a lurker for like 2+ years. but this is my first post. i was wondering if anyone could let me know how my area is "progressing", i guess. wallington, nj. near giants stadium in nenj. im at 41 degrees with a 33 dew point. am i in a good position with the temp fall? like is my area on pace? thanks in advance! You're fine. Enjoy the snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, weatherpruf said: What do you consider NNJ? To folks down the shore, the Driscoll Bridge is NNJ, and that area is definitely getting less at this point. Jeez... Heres the test. If outside your window at 7am it's not snowing heavily, then there's reason to worry about coming in under 8" or so. If it's snowing heavily by then, you should be good for maybe a foot or even more. A lot of this stuff is last minute model noise and trends on the edges that always take place. PHL is essentially where NYC was for Nemo and Juno, and they're the ones who might bust low, I don't see that happening in this area. But we're about to find out who's right and wrong. Hopefully this works out well for all, and appreciate it anyway if you end up with 6 or 7" vs 13". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, seanick said: Surprised to see NBC have most of Jersey, NYC and LI under 10-15" of snow. Well, they gotta prepare a forecast before the broadcast, so they don't have the latest I guess. Most of NJ isn't seeing 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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