jm1220 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 The GFS might be cooling the surface down too slowly, but the onset of precip even with this run would still be rain or slop near the coast with temps around 40. We will need the heavier rates to cool the column down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 8 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Pretty significant negative changes on the GFS.... shows how tough this setup is. Truly is thread the needle. As of now... it appears the NAM is the only one really do that I think a 3-6" event is on the table - perhaps a bit more... but anyone expecting a major event is likely setting themselves up for disappointment. Fast mover + marginal airmass = temper expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Whoever had blowtorch with around normal snowfall for NYC in their Winter 2016/2017 Bingo - please collect your prize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Gfs looks to be caving to the euro on a weaker storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 14 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: Whoever had blowtorch with around normal snowfall for NYC in their Winter 2016/2017 Bingo - please collect your prize. Crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 23 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The GFS might be cooling the surface down too slowly, but the onset of precip even with this run would still be rain or slop near the coast with temps around 40. We will need the heavier rates to cool the column down. The GFS soundings at JFK at hour 60 at start of precip are now 36/29. The soundings thereafter easily look like snow to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 All NWP point towards an isothermal snow event for C NJ into LHV. The event that comes to mind is March 1999; I suspect a 3-7 in wet snowfall can be expected. No more; no less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 29 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: Whoever had blowtorch with around normal snowfall for NYC in their Winter 2016/2017 Bingo - please collect your prize. With another possible storm mid month Who said winter was over lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 GEFS look wetter than the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 the city is looking like the mean for this event as of now. still uncertain details as surface temps,the building high pressure and actual lp strength to be determined by wednesday's early runs possibly,we still a lot of time to track but it's looking better for us coastal folks. def wouldnt mind seeing another 5+ inch event here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 the rhmc model,one of the seldom used models. the heaviest band is coming right into n.y.c at is long range.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 the brams model.also a hit..it does under do precip a bit though so no worries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 31 minutes ago, BxWeatherwatcher said: the brams model.also a hit..it does under do precip a bit though so no worries. Oh good, I was worried about the Brams, good to know it's got a dry biased Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Gefs are leaning towards the nams northern track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Most members that have anything significant focus just N+W of the city, obviously in those members the city still does just fine, with the exception of a a few theres a good amount of nam like Solutions, be weary of that GFS op.. hasn't had a back to back solution yet... flip, flop repeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 52 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Most members that have anything significant focus just N+W of the city, obviously in those members the city still does just fine, with the exception of a a few theres a good amount of nam like Solutions, be weary of that GFS op.. hasn't had a back to back solution yet... flip, flop repeat These must have really poor resolution, they seem to pretend Long Island is under water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, jm1220 said: These must have really poor resolution, they seem to pretend Long Island is under water. Always. So misleading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: If the srefs are favorable someone will post about it. If they suck... people will pretend like they don't exist The SREFs have rarely been mentioned this winter by people it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: These must have really poor resolution, they seem to pretend Long Island is under water. Those things don't really take into account evaporative cooling either. Any event where you're above freezing to start by more than a couple of degrees it usually shows no accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 23 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The SREFs have rarely been mentioned this winter by people it seems. I haven't looked at the srefs since Jan 15'... they broke my heart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 I looked for giggles, srefs are wayyyyy out of their range.... inside 24-36 hours is there best timeframe... but regardless, they're not great of the 26 members here's the %probability of seeing >6", once you drop to >3 it goes up a bit but most the area is only 30-40% still... again srefs are useless this far out, but someone asked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I haven't looked at the srefs since Jan 15'... they broke my heart Every model has its utility. It is pure amateur ignorance to avoid SREF's. Within the next 12 hours, they will be of more use. In short, they have been very volatile the past 24 hours. However, most recent run showed generally swath of accumulating snow for N NJ into NYC and the LHV. Their probabilities remain low due to a large spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 11 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I haven't looked at the srefs since Jan 15'... they broke my heart 35 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The SREFs have rarely been mentioned this winter by people it seems. That's partly because we haven't had anything significant to look at all Winter where we were worried about an offshore track or a southern slider. This is really the first threat all Winter where this comes into play. Still early though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 13 minutes ago, Enigma said: Every model has its utility. It is pure amateur ignorance to avoid SREF's. Within the next 12 hours, they will be of more use. In short, they have been very volatile the past 24 hours. However, most recent run showed generally swath of accumulating snow for N NJ into NYC and the LHV. Their probabilities remain low due to a large spread. It was a joke dude.... and the srefs are terrible this early, inside 36 is when they should be used, and even that's being generous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 NAM looks stronger with the energy out west. Looks a little slower too. 00z 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: NAM looks stronger with the energy out west is that what we want? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, Philadelphia Snow said: is that what we want? If you want a stronger system, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Philadelphia Snow said: is that what we want? No, more amped means rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: If you want a stronger system, yes. so it could mean rain for coastal cities then.... or not because stronger doesn't necessarily mean further north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, Philadelphia Snow said: so it could mean rain for coastal cities then.... or not because stronger doesn't necessary mean further north? It would increase the chance for rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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