Squid1225 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, mikem81 said: Where are you? Still 45 here in queens Rock Tavern NY in Orange County.... Down to 34 now lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Not really relevant to our area but The RGEM has wanted no part of big snows in places like Albany just north of Manchester in NH and most of Maine. I'll be interested to see if it wins that battle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 14 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: RGEM finally caved and shows the LHV band rockland/southern Orange County, and westchester I did say I liked that area best this morning, if you recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 26 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: I just don't believe LHV jackpots here. NYC is in a way better spot for a jackpot especially Bronx because of the enhacement of the Long Island Sound. Westchester county also. There will not be a fetch off the sound into the Bronx during this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 20 minutes ago, Sophisticated Skeptic said: still seems too progressive for me. maybe that's why mt holly lowered some totals. Only dropped amounts by maybe an inch or so in some places, not all, as far as I can tell, due to more slowly dropping temps... Already a broad area of precipitation has developed to our west. We expect this precip to move into our region sometime after midnight. Already in the southern Poconos, temperatures are low enough that any precip moving in should be all snow. For the rest of the region however, temperatures have generally been slower to drop than previously forecast, so adjusted the hourly temperatures to match. However, even with the adjustments to the hourly temperatures, timing of the transition of precip type has not changed much. Having said that however, current road/surface temps show a very warm ground, and recent runs of the HRRR and RAP indicate the precip may pull out a bit faster than previously expected. Thus, lowered snow totals across the region slightly. Hesitate to drop them too much before we have even begun to see the effects of dynamic cooling with the low, and once the heavier snow rates develop, they could be enough to overcome any warm ground. Regardless of the snow totals, this still looks to have a major impact for much of the region`s morning commute as that will be when the heaviest snow is expected to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, NYCGreg said: If these trends continue it won't even be a NYC storm NYC is safe for sure with this track and wind direction. The worst case is there could be sleet for another hour than expected with snow. Philly regular gets burned in these sort of events. April 82 is just one example where 12 inches fell in NYC and they saw nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Looking like Philly might be shafted-the earlier runs today had up to double what tonight's runs have. It's always risky being on the SW end of events like these. This might turn into a mostly NYC area to Boston snowstorm. Saw that too. The HRRR has trended warmer too. Even in NYC, it may take a tad longer than expected to start accumulating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Gotta love the panic posts, we go through this with every storm. Lol. I am going with a magic number of 11.0" here in my area. No need to panic, but NAM and RGEM are now showing lower amounts for Middlesex county due to mixing. Would be disappointing to miss out on the really big totals. Was 12z Euro wrong with the very cold solution? Could be. 3 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Gotta love the panic posts, we go through this with every storm. Lol. I am going with a magic number of 11.0" here in my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said: Um it looks to me like snow totals increased from 18z to 0z... He's showing the Southern edge of the snow keeps edging north every run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: This threads become pure ****... I know this is gonna get deleted, but the ship jumping posts are absurd... how spoiled are you? I agree. RGEM Spit out 1.5" QPF for the Metro, what are people seeing? This storm is going to be nuts, we all know that. The 2010s really have made people spoiled. Good God. What are ratios looking like ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, West Mtn NY said: He's showing the Southern edge of the snow keeps edging north every run There's really no more runs to go, it's on our doorstep now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Not really relevant to our area but The RGEM has wanted no part of big snows in places like Albany just north of Manchester in NH and most of Maine. I'll be interested to see if it wins that battle I expect the RGEM to. Typically in these setups, I'm in subsidence hell while the Berks down across the HV get the better banding. I'm surprised most guidance has shifted decent snows into this area today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 I don't think anyone is jumping ship (I'm certainly not and will gladly take the 6-12" of snow I continue to forecast for the metro area). But it is important to point out where I believe the heaviest band of snow will be. We're getting to the point where mesoscale models matter. If you disagree, post commentary to discuss instead of claiming that my logic is bull**** on feelings and wishful thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, NYCGreg said: If these trends continue it won't even be a NYC storm If we were 36 hours out I would agree with you. Since we're less than 12 hours out, I highly doubt it. The warmer initial air is probably throwing a wrench into it south of the city, along with NE winds still being off water, and a more amped and later bombing system. But I would only be really worried if I was in Philly or on the Jersey Shore. Models still flip the NYC area and LI to snow fast when the precip starts. If there's heavy rain or sleet still within the meat of the storm, then we can worry here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, mimillman said: Posts were deleted due to Wxbell maps being in them (sorry mods). But to answer the person who responded to them pointing out the increase in snow totals over some areas, I urge you to consider the trend and not the raw numbers of the 00z RGEM, the astounding cut in snowfall totals from CNJ and SE PA, and the set up that is increasingly looking to favor the Hudson Valley through to eastern CT. Even the NAM has over 8" of snow in NYC. The RGEM has around liquid, increasing totals form 18z. That's a positive move if anything. Temps shouldn't limit accumulations significantly. Temps at 850 and 2m are definitely cold enough on the warmer RGEM for NYC. This is the warmest frame with appreciable precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Just now, snow1 said: What on earth are you talking about? I see nothing saying we aren't in for a good thumping of snow....please elaborate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Just now, Sophisticated Skeptic said: If GFS busts again, it'll be 2 major systems in a row that it's way overdone QPF. European went crazy with QPF last run...you guys are getting to worried. Calm down. 00z GFS time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: Even the NAM has over 8" of snow in NYC. The RGEM has around liquid, increasing totals form 18z. That's a positive move if anything. Temps shouldn't limit accumulations significantly. Temps at 850 and 2m are definitely cold enough on the warmer RGEM for NYC. This is the warmest frame with appreciable precip. What are the temps at 10z when tinge precip starts ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: Even the NAM has over 8" of snow in NYC. The RGEM has around liquid, increasing totals form 18z. That's a positive move if anything. Temps shouldn't limit accumulations significantly. Temps at 850 and 2m are definitely cold enough on the warmer RGEM for NYC. This is the warmest frame with appreciable precip. Hey, I certainly think 8" is a possibility in NYC. 6-12" is likely and it's what I'm sticking with. I'm worried our bigger problem will be subsidence over mixing issues, but I do believe we see at least 6" out of this storm with more possible depending on where banding does set up in the end. In a winter like this one, we've hit it rich. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Just now, weatherfreeeeak said: European went crazy with QPF last run...you guys are getting to worried. Calm down. 00z GFS time I think the folks in central NJ are worried, but we are always on the cusp, it's nothing new. It's rare for us to be in the jackpot zone. If there's is gonna be mixing, at the beginning or end of a storm, we will get it. Always do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, weatherfreeeeak said: European went crazy with QPF last run...you guys are getting to worried. Calm down. 00z GFS time correcting myself.. GFS did outdo NAM on the last major system. NAM was dryer GFS was wetter GFS was right. hopefully it's right again. GFS rollin in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBlitzkrieg Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 GFS is a thing of beauty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 The RGEM had sleet for NYC this run but it didn't even make a dent in total accumulation of snow because the QPF was higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 GFS is coming in once again amped. It starts as rain for SNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 17 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Only dropped amounts by maybe an inch or so in some places, not all, as far as I can tell, due to more slowly dropping temps... Already a broad area of precipitation has developed to our west. We expect this precip to move into our region sometime after midnight. Already in the southern Poconos, temperatures are low enough that any precip moving in should be all snow. For the rest of the region however, temperatures have generally been slower to drop than previously forecast, so adjusted the hourly temperatures to match. However, even with the adjustments to the hourly temperatures, timing of the transition of precip type has not changed much. Having said that however, current road/surface temps show a very warm ground, and recent runs of the HRRR and RAP indicate the precip may pull out a bit faster than previously expected. Thus, lowered snow totals across the region slightly. Hesitate to drop them too much before we have even begun to see the effects of dynamic cooling with the low, and once the heavier snow rates develop, they could be enough to overcome any warm ground. Regardless of the snow totals, this still looks to have a major impact for much of the region`s morning commute as that will be when the heaviest snow is expected to occur. This plus the drier NAM for NJ and the latest HRRR are at least a little concerning for folks in Central NJ - definitely less to the SW of Middlesex County, towards Trenton/Philly, as we've sometimes seen in these events, due to less precip. Look I'll still be happy with 7-8" but was loving the idea of 12" or so, which I know could still happen, but seeing data like these is at least a bit of a caution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mophstymeo01 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 If this busts on the low end, I'll blame DiBlasio for preemptively closing the public schools.Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, jm1220 said: If we were 36 hours out I would agree with you. Since we're less than 12 hours out, I highly doubt it. The warmer initial air is probably throwing a wrench into it south of the city, along with NE winds still being off water, and a more amped and later bombing system. But I would only be really worried if I was in Philly or on the Jersey Shore. Models still flip the NYC area and LI to snow fast when the precip starts. If there's heavy rain or sleet still within the meat of the storm, then we can worry here. Fair enough. But I also remember "Nemo" when we were fringed, could never quite changeover, etc. I also remember the 2015 bust where we were mere hours from the onset and we got screwed there too. Maybe I remember the negatives over the positives, and those were different setups, but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Can everyone take a step off the ledge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 GFS continues to look good. Granted, it doesn't quite have the resolution of the mesoscale models, but it may be a good idea to use a blend of the mesoscale and GFS temperature profiles to root out their respective biases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, NYCGreg said: Fair enough. But I also remember "Nemo" when we were fringed, could never quite changeover, etc. I also remember the 2015 bust where we were mere hours from the onset and we got screwed there too. Maybe I remember the negatives over the positives, and those were different setups, but still. It changed over late for me in Long Beach and I had 12 or 13" I believe mostly in 5 hours. Hopefully this isn't the same deal but nothing we can do now but watch. I still think in 12 hours most of us will be very happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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