Brian5671 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, weatherfreeeeak said: Why is this always different, is there a reason? And which one is more reliable 4K has a higher resolution and can pick up mesoscale features a bit better. Hard to say which one is more reliable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 9, 2017 Author Share Posted February 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: You guys are gonna drive yourselves nuts... there's 1 guarantee... Long Island will see more snow than anyone here lol... other than that, be happy with your 12" lol dude long island is going to have mixing issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: You guys are gonna drive yourselves nuts... there's 1 guarantee... Long Island will see more snow than anyone here lol... other than that, be happy with your 12" lol Eh LI will do well but I expect perhaps the heaviest to fall along an arc from, say West Milford, NJ to Danbury, Ct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richm20 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Just now, WeatherFeen2000 said: dude long island is going to have mixing issues Nope, not after the start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 7 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: You guys are gonna drive yourselves nuts... there's 1 guarantee... Long Island will see more snow than anyone here lol... other than that, be happy with your 12" lol When the best banding is modeled over LI it ends up in NENJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 I know it's hard for some to believe, but areas 30 miles NW of the city are probably finally going to JP based on the latest mesoscale modeling. LI will also do well as the storm pulls away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Just now, Rjay said: When the best banding is modeled over LI it ends up in NENJ I'm okay with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: dude long island is going to have mixing issues Post your evidence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 9, 2017 Author Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Rjay said: When the best banding is modeled over LI it ends up in NENJ thats what I'm saying, we won't know that until tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 45 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Hows nam for coastal monmouth? How long does it mix? Knock down totals alot NAM looks like it has a fair amount less snow for NJ up to about a Bordentown to Sandy Hook line, which appears to be the 6" line and it appears it's due more to lack of precip, when looking at the total precip map (0.5-0.75" for NJ SE of that line), not rain. To the NW of that line, precip amounts quickly go to 1.0-1.25" and snowfall goes to 8-10" or so, for, say Trenton to Perth Amboy (that's only a 5-10 mile shift NW). My guess is that cutoff is overdone, but it's interesting, at least. TWC going with 8-12" for just about all of Central Jersey and eastern PA, north of about 276/195, with less down towards Philly (6-8") and South Jersey (even less than Philly). And the 1Z HRRR only showing 0.5-0.75" of precip for most of Central/North NJ - 6-9" of snow. Hope that's not correct... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, Rjay said: When the best banding is modeled over LI it ends up in NENJ Happened on boxing day but generally I disagree. Especially here with a fast moving and rapidly deepening storm. The storm will be much stronger when it hits LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: When the best banding is modeled over LI it ends up in NENJ I generally agree, but there seems to be a second precip max in this case. If that secondary band does develop over Westchester and NNJ, I suspect some convection will keep the LI band SE over Long Island. I will be more comfortable in NYC staying out of major subsidence if the RGEM holds steady and the 6z NAM shifts southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, psv88 said: Happened on boxing day but generally I disagree. Especially here. Your area tends to find a weenie band no matter what happens so you dont count lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, Nibor said: I'm okay with this. I approve this message Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: thats what I'm saying, we won't know that until tomorrow Hey may have taken a shot in the dark but it may be slightly correct... Nam is very warm for parts of the south shore and ELI at the surface, 850s drop below 0 quickly but are marginal, not saying mixing for sure, but their ratios will be nowhere near what areas NW are seeing, which will certainly hamper totals with a fast mover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Looking at the radar this storm is moving wonder if the models are wrong on slowing this down a bit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, RU848789 said: NAM looks like it has a fair amount less snow for NJ up to about a Bordentown to Sandy Hook line, which appears to be the 6" line and it appears it's due more to lack of precip, when looking at the total precip map (0.5-0.75" for NJ SE of that line), not rain. To the NW of that line, precip amounts quickly go to 1.0-1.25" and snowfall goes to 8-10" or so, for, say Trenton to Perth Amboy (that's only a 5-10 mile shift NW). My guess is that cutoff is overdone, but it's interesting, at least. TWC going with 8-12" for just about all of Central Jersey and eastern PA, north of about 276/195, with less down towards Philly (6-8") and South Jersey (even less than Philly). I don't expect to see 12 in our parts, and 6 might still be on the table, but 8-10 is my guess. But to think a week ago we didn't expect much of anything. Local schools are canceled and my son just informed me Rutgers has canceled classes, that almost never happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Rjay said: Your area tends to find a weenie band no matter what happens so you dont count lol. Haha my post sent before I finished. Here as in the speed, track and dynamics of the storm. I don't see how the best bands are west of nyc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 What exactly did the NAM print out for QPF? Never saw a clear answer lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Good luck dudes rooting for ya to get crushed I'm a old timer over here and just wanted to remind everyone to veggie oil up those blower blades .see ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Just now, Manny said: What exactly did the NAM print out for QPF? Never saw a clear answer lol Generally 1" nyc ne, 0.75 elswhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, mulen said: Good luck dudes rooting for ya to get crushed I'm a old timer over here and just wanted to remind everyone to veggie oil up those blower blades .see ya Keep those bass honest for me, Mulen. Miss ya brotha... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Just now, psv88 said: Generally 1" nyc ne, 0.75 elswhere Ok thanks. What kind of ratios are we seeing? 15:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, BlizzardNYC said: Looking at the radar this storm is moving wonder if the models are wrong on slowing this down a bit... Here's the new HRRR, Jim Cantore just posted it: https://mobile.twitter.com/JimCantore/status/829517268694470657/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 A picture of beauty! A 996mb low south of NYC with snow depicted for parts of PA, NJ, NY, LI, CT, MA, etc.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 9, 2017 Author Share Posted February 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: Post your evidence I'm not talking about you I'm talking about extreme Long Island like Montauk and Cape Cod. From personal experience if this tracks the way the nam is depicting it NYC is going to jackpot as this is a coastal storm therefore the heaviest precipitation will fall near the coast. Since NYC is all snow I think we jackpot. Bronx is particularly on that jackpot zone because of the Long Island sound enhancement but we won't really know until tomorrow. Also I would bet that north of Long Island expressway Port Jefferson, NY that place looks like it won't mix but south of that may mix for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, psv88 said: Haha my post sent before I finished. Here as in the speed, track and dynamics of the storm. I don't see how the best bands are west of nyc. I agree with that. This storm is so progressive and it's absolutely bombing as it tracks quickly from the Deleware coast to SE of the ACK, so LI will probably end up with the highest totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Back home i have to deal with dryslots with storms like this. Is that much of a thing up here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Rjay said: I agree with that. This storm is so progressive and it's absolutely bombing as it tracks quickly from the Deleware coast to SE of the ACK, so LI will probably end up with the highest totals. You write it so much better than I do haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Highest QPF LHV/LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.