swamplover56 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Could someone post the nam snowmaps I'm at work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Congrats Orange/putnum/westchester/LI That heavy qpf max creeps into Sussex and nw Passaic County nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 This would be some death band... wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 7 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Hows nam for coastal monmouth? How long does it mix? Knock down totals alot North of Belmar should be alright for at least decent amounts, south of there might be in trouble. Models today are warming those areas up quite a bit and delaying the changeover. Winds staying onshore there also hurts (NE is still onshore). For Long Island, NE wind is off land. That helps NYC and LI change over almost immediately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Subsidence again over the city on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Just now, psv88 said: No. 850 low closes off SE of the east end. The low will be rapidly deepening as well, cold strong n winds. I know what is modeled but I also feel the storm is maturing earlier combined with a seeping cold push rather than a coast clearing front. I'd be surprised if it wasn't tickling the East end when all said and done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Just now, mimillman said: Subsidence again over the city on the NAM You're harping on this way too much. The bands are almost impossible to figure out at this point. Also, other models disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: North of Belmar should be alright for at least decent amounts, south of there might be in trouble. Models today are warming those areas up quite a bit and delaying the changeover. Winds staying onshore there also hurts (NE is still onshore). For Long Island, NE wind is off land. That helps NYC and LI change over almost immediately. Whats decent amount? Im 6 miles north of sandy hook. 6-8" or more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Gearing up my gopro and a measuring stick for a snowfall time lapse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: You're harping on this way too much. The bands are almost impossible to figure out at this point. Also, other models disagree. I'm not sure why the NAM has been so insistent on bands far inland. The RGEM, UKMET, and Euro disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, mimillman said: Subsidence again over the city on the NAM What's with you and subsidence dude? We don't have a clue how much subsidence there will be or where, or if it will even matter much. there's a great storm coming, let's enjoy it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Just now, Franklin0529 said: Whats decent amount? Im 6 miles north of sandy hook. 6-8" or more? If you're 6 miles north of Sandy Hook you'd be in NY Harbor. Probably at least 6", it's almost time to nowcast and keep an eye on your temps. The less water your NE wind has to cross over the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 44/33 Winter is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: I'm not sure why the NAM has been so insistent on bands far inland. The RGEM, UKMET, and Euro disagree. The NAM notoriously overdoes these bands, and we've gotten burned on that before. Although it still sticking with this now may mean it's onto something. But bands like these shift around and are hard to catch on models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: I'm not sure why the NAM has been so insistent on bands far inland. The RGEM, UKMET, and Euro disagree. Not true, euro/GFS drops over a foot 50+ miles inland, as does ukmet, RGEM is most conservative inland... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowsintherain Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 46/30 here in Copiague, southwestern Suffolk county. Bring it!Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Literally every model except the RGEM has the interior band lol... what are we talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 8 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: What's with you and subsidence dude? We don't have a clue how much subsidence there will be or where, or if it will even matter much. there's a great storm coming, let's enjoy it! It's a pretty important meteorological phenomenon in such dynamic events and probably should be mentioned as a possible outcome...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 8 minutes ago, jm1220 said: If you're 6 miles north of Sandy Hook you'd be in NY Harbor. Probably at least 6", it's almost time to nowcast and keep an eye on your temps. The less water your NE wind has to cross over the better. Nw. Im in belford. About a mile from raritan bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 7 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The NAM notoriously overdoes these bands, and we've gotten burned on that before. Although it still sticking with this now may mean it's onto something. But bands like these shift around and are hard to catch on models. I'm hoping it's the traditional amped up NAM overdoing things, but it has done an excellent job this winter at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 track looks on-point so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Literally every model except the RGEM has the interior band lol... what are we talking about? This was a fairly significant shift northwest for the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Add the hrrr to that list Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, mimillman said: It's a pretty important meteorological phenomenon in such dynamic events and probably should be mentioned as a possible outcome...? There is that potential considering the fact that a few models are hinting at 1 band NW of the city and another for LI. The city may very well get trapped in subsidence. Like many others have said though, we really won't know where this takes place until it actually happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 You guys are gonna drive yourselves nuts... there's 1 guarantee... Long Island will see more snow than anyone here lol... other than that, be happy with your 12" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 9, 2017 Author Share Posted February 9, 2017 14 minutes ago, Animal said: That heavy qpf max creeps into Sussex and nw Passaic County nj this map makes sense but honestly that's still in the air. we won't really know where those bands set up until tomorrow while the storm is happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 4K NAM snowmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: 4K NAM snowmap Why is this always different, is there a reason? And which one is more reliable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Mount holly cut back on totals for CNJ and south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 7 minutes ago, mimillman said: It's a pretty important meteorological phenomenon in such dynamic events and probably should be mentioned as a possible outcome...? Yeah but if you can pinpoint it then give me some lottery numbers.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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