brooklynwx99 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 I don't think I've seen rates this high on TT before... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 NAM keeps hope alive north and west. Wouldn't be great for the coast-looks like a nuke band 50 miles wide or so north of town and slop with late arriving cold air south of that. Between this and the flat nothing the GGEM has, every solution still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Be careful, the warm tongue is much more pronounced this run on the NAM. This is a poor representation, but you can see the difference in 850mb temps at 09z Thursday morning when the heaviest precip is falling. 18z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just now, jm1220 said: NAM keeps hope alive north and west. Wouldn't be great for the coast-looks like a nuke band 50 miles wide or so north of town and slop with late arriving cold air south of that. Between this and the flat nothing the GGEM has, every solution still on the table. In NYC, it's about 0C at 850 mb and 33-34 on the surface with very heavy precip. Verbatim, would the rates overcome the slight warmth, or am I just dreaming? Honestly, I think the NAM is doing NAM things and the final solution won't be as NW. I take the RGEM more seriously. We'll see what the GFS says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: In NYC, it's about 0C at 850 mb and 33-34 on the surface with very heavy precip. Verbatim, would the rates overcome the slight warmth, or am I just dreaming? Honestly, I think the NAM is doing NAM things and the final solution won't be as NW. I take the RGEM more seriously. We'll see what the GFS says. The NAM would probably have a narrow band 50 miles wide of so of 6-8" or more snow with a few inches of slop south of that and much lighter snow north of it. It's definitely the extreme which is what we expect from the NAM. A compromise between that and the Euro is the best case for the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Hi res Nam just as amped and north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 n.y.c still does quite well on the nam,overall i still think everything is still pointing to a metro area hit. also it seems like the coast is where the snow wants to fall,trends show it as well within the 24 hour timeframes on our last minor events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 NWS in NYC is fairly bullish, now, on potential snowfall being in the 4-8" range Weds night into Thursday morning (not an official forecast yet, but that's their thinking now) - with that much snow and good snowfall rates, there would be accumulation on roads and the morning commute would likely be impacted. Amount of QPF remains in question after midnight through Thursday noontime. Large spread in amounts, which makes for a challenging snow forecast. much uncertainty, but an overall 4 to 8 inches possible, less NW of NYC, and highest across Long Island, SE CT per low track, and likely placement of banded precip. Once again, amounts could be on either side of this average amount, but feel the morning commute will be impacted regardless. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Hi res Nam just as amped and north With the high snowfall rates even bit south of city will do ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 I'll take my chance on temps given the rates that we would be seeing if the NAM were to come to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Squid1225 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 1 minute ago, RU848789 said: NWS in NYC is fairly bullish, now, on potential snowfall being in the 4-8" range Weds night into Thursday morning (not an official forecast yet, but that's their thinking now) - with that much snow and good snowfall rates, there would be accumulation on roads and the morning commute would likely be impacted. Amount of QPF remains in question after midnight through Thursday noontime. Large spread in amounts, which makes for a challenging snow forecast. much uncertainty, but an overall 4 to 8 inches possible, less NW of NYC, and highest across Long Island, SE CT per low track, and likely placement of banded precip. Once again, amounts could be on either side of this average amount, but feel the morning commute will be impacted regardless. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Thats pretty surprising because Upton is usually last to the party. I will say, the NAM has been great so far this winter so I would take it pretty seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just now, RU848789 said: NWS in NYC is fairly bullish, now, on potential snowfall being in the 4-8" range Weds night into Thursday morning (not an official forecast yet, but that's their thinking now) - with that much snow and good snowfall rates, there would be accumulation on roads and the morning commute would likely be impacted. Amount of QPF remains in question after midnight through Thursday noontime. Large spread in amounts, which makes for a challenging snow forecast. much uncertainty, but an overall 4 to 8 inches possible, less NW of NYC, and highest across Long Island, SE CT per low track, and likely placement of banded precip. Once again, amounts could be on either side of this average amount, but feel the morning commute will be impacted regardless. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Upton is leaning towards the Euro suite solution clearly. They are favoring more for the city/coast/LI than north and west of the city. I guess given the NAM's biases that's the way to lean right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Upton already has maps out with 4-6" for most of the area, and high potential for 10". Looks like watches will go out overnight or tomorrow AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 I see a lot of people mentioning seasonal trends... but also mentioning the nams biased... seasonal trend would be the nam has no biases this year and has by FAR been the best model of the season inside 84hrs, I'm not making a case for any model in favor, but dismissing models cause they don't show what you want needs to stop, it's out of control on here every storm... had the nam shown a city crusher, those same people would be saying exactly what I'm saying, " nams been great" with that being said, I'm by no means tossing the euro or GFS... GGEM is a joke and merits no discussion and don't try and convince me otherwise lol. but Jesus for once can we all have discussion without homer biased... nam is most likely overdoing precip a bit, but it's track shouldn't be tossed based on nonsense reasoning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I see a lot of people mentioning seasonal trends... but also mentioning the nams biased... seasonal trend would be the nam has no biases this year and has by FAR been the best model of the season inside 84hrs, I'm not making a case for any model in favor, but dismissing models cause they don't show what you want needs to stop, it's out of control on here every storm... had the nam shown a city crusher, those same people would be saying exactly what I'm saying, " nams been great" with that being said, I'm by no means tossing the euro or GFS... GGEM is a joke and merits no discussion and don't try and convince me otherwise lol. but Jesus for once can we all have a subjective discussion without homer biased... nam is most likely overdoing precip a bit, but it's track shouldn't be tossed based on nonsense reasoning I'm not dismissing it as a possible outcome. I'm just saying that it should come farther SE towards the other models like the GFS, UKMET, and Euro because it seems to be an overamped outlier as of now. If the GFS makes a shift NW, then that's a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 GFS para looks like Nam, heavier snowfall drops into NYC though, and NW burb jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Euro ensembles were apparently a little NW and wetter than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Euro ensembles were apparently a little NW and wetter than the op. That's good it was too far south with the precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Way out and not worth more than a second, but tail end of RGEM looks like Nam/GFS ish, too early still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 14 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: I'm not dismissing it as a possible outcome. I'm just saying that it should come farther SE towards the other models like the GFS, UKMET, and Euro because it seems to be an overamped outlier as of now. If the GFS makes a shift NW, then that's a different story. GFS is a LHV jackpot, Orange/Rockland, putnum,euro is the southern outlier nam and GFS are near identical tracks... Nams just digs more, looks much better at H5 also, and wraps up more than the GFS resulting in heavier totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 20 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: GFS is a LHV jackpot, Orange/Rockland, putnum,euro is the southern outlier nam and GFS are near identical tracks... Nams just digs more, looks much better at H5 also, and wraps up more than the GFS resulting in heavier totals The 18Z? Looks much better for the coast to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 1 minute ago, mikem81 said: The 18Z? Looks much better for the coast to me 18z wasn't even out when I wrote that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 18z GFS looks like a split between the Euro and NAM. Worse than 12z for inland areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 18z GFS looks like a split between the Euro and NAM. Worse than 12z for inland areas. It's literally flipped flopped every run today. 00z was north and a big hit for everyone, 06z was south favored coast, 12z was north and favored inland now 18z is south and is weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 23 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: GFS is a LHV jackpot, Orange/Rockland, putnum,euro is the southern outlier nam and GFS are near identical tracks... Nams just digs more, looks much better at H5 also, and wraps up more than the GFS resulting in heavier totals GFS 18z seems to look like the Euro-coast and central NJ favored. NAM is pretty much a redo of the big Feb 2001 inland storm-the snow stripe looks almost an exact match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 GFS is 4-6, less N+W this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 18z precip 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Gfs going to the colder solution like the euro has? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Pretty significant negative changes on the GFS.... shows how tough this setup is. Truly is thread the needle. As of now... it appears the NAM is the only one really do that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just now, Snow88 said: Gfs going to the colder solution like the euro has? at 0z Thu., 850's down to the city are -1 already. 925 are at +2 and surface is 44. at 06z 850's are -5 and 925 are -3. Surface is 37. at 12z 850's are -6 and 925 are -5. Surface is 31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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