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Coastal Crusher Feb 9th 2017


WeatherFeen2000

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Just now, jm1220 said:

NAM keeps hope alive north and west. Wouldn't be great for the coast-looks like a nuke band 50 miles wide or so north of town and slop with late arriving cold air south of that. Between this and the flat nothing the GGEM has, every solution still on the table. 

In NYC, it's about 0C at 850 mb and 33-34 on the surface with very heavy precip. Verbatim, would the rates overcome the slight warmth, or am I just dreaming? 

Honestly, I think the NAM is doing NAM things and the final solution won't be as NW. I take the RGEM more seriously. We'll see what the GFS says.

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Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

In NYC, it's about 0C at 850 mb and 33-34 on the surface with very heavy precip. Verbatim, would the rates overcome the slight warmth, or am I just dreaming? 

Honestly, I think the NAM is doing NAM things and the final solution won't be as NW. I take the RGEM more seriously. We'll see what the GFS says.

The NAM would probably have a narrow band 50 miles wide of so of 6-8" or more snow with a few inches of slop south of that and much lighter snow north of it. It's definitely the extreme which is what we expect from the NAM. A compromise between that and the Euro is the best case for the NYC area. 

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NWS in NYC is fairly bullish, now, on potential snowfall being in the 4-8" range Weds night into Thursday morning (not an official forecast yet, but that's their thinking now) - with that much snow and good snowfall rates, there would be accumulation on roads and the morning commute would likely be impacted.  
 
Amount of QPF remains in question after midnight through Thursday
noontime. Large spread in amounts, which makes for a challenging
snow forecast. much uncertainty, but an overall 4 to 8 inches
possible, less NW of NYC, and highest across Long Island, SE CT per
low track, and likely placement of banded precip. Once again, amounts
could be on either side of this average amount, but feel the morning
commute will be impacted regardless.
 
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1 minute ago, RU848789 said:
NWS in NYC is fairly bullish, now, on potential snowfall being in the 4-8" range Weds night into Thursday morning (not an official forecast yet, but that's their thinking now) - with that much snow and good snowfall rates, there would be accumulation on roads and the morning commute would likely be impacted.  
 
Amount of QPF remains in question after midnight through Thursday
noontime. Large spread in amounts, which makes for a challenging
snow forecast. much uncertainty, but an overall 4 to 8 inches
possible, less NW of NYC, and highest across Long Island, SE CT per
low track, and likely placement of banded precip. Once again, amounts
could be on either side of this average amount, but feel the morning
commute will be impacted regardless.
 

Thats pretty surprising because Upton is usually last to the party.  I will say, the NAM has been great so far this winter so I would take it pretty seriously.

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Just now, RU848789 said:
NWS in NYC is fairly bullish, now, on potential snowfall being in the 4-8" range Weds night into Thursday morning (not an official forecast yet, but that's their thinking now) - with that much snow and good snowfall rates, there would be accumulation on roads and the morning commute would likely be impacted.  
 
Amount of QPF remains in question after midnight through Thursday
noontime. Large spread in amounts, which makes for a challenging
snow forecast. much uncertainty, but an overall 4 to 8 inches
possible, less NW of NYC, and highest across Long Island, SE CT per
low track, and likely placement of banded precip. Once again, amounts
could be on either side of this average amount, but feel the morning
commute will be impacted regardless.
 

Upton is leaning towards the Euro suite solution clearly. They are favoring more for the city/coast/LI than north and west of the city. I guess given the NAM's biases that's the way to lean right now

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I see a lot of people mentioning seasonal trends... but also mentioning the nams biased... seasonal trend would be the nam has no biases this year and has by FAR been the best model of the season inside 84hrs, I'm not making a case for any model in favor, but dismissing models cause they don't show what you want needs to stop, it's out of control on here every storm... had the nam shown a city crusher, those same people would be saying exactly what I'm saying, " nams been great"

 

with that being said, I'm by no means tossing the euro or GFS... GGEM is a joke and merits no discussion and don't try and convince me otherwise lol.

 

but Jesus for once can we all have discussion without homer biased...

nam is most likely overdoing precip a bit, but it's track shouldn't be tossed based on nonsense reasoning 

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4 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

I see a lot of people mentioning seasonal trends... but also mentioning the nams biased... seasonal trend would be the nam has no biases this year and has by FAR been the best model of the season inside 84hrs, I'm not making a case for any model in favor, but dismissing models cause they don't show what you want needs to stop, it's out of control on here every storm... had the nam shown a city crusher, those same people would be saying exactly what I'm saying, " nams been great"

 

with that being said, I'm by no means tossing the euro or GFS... GGEM is a joke and merits no discussion and don't try and convince me otherwise lol.

 

but Jesus for once can we all have a subjective discussion without homer biased...

nam is most likely overdoing precip a bit, but it's track shouldn't be tossed based on nonsense reasoning 

I'm not dismissing it as a possible outcome. I'm just saying that it should come farther SE towards the other models like the GFS, UKMET, and Euro because it seems to be an overamped outlier as of now. If the GFS makes a shift NW, then that's a different story. 

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14 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I'm not dismissing it as a possible outcome. I'm just saying that it should come farther SE towards the other models like the GFS, UKMET, and Euro because it seems to be an overamped outlier as of now. If the GFS makes a shift NW, then that's a different story. 

GFS is a LHV jackpot, Orange/Rockland, putnum,euro is the southern outlier 

 

nam and GFS are near identical tracks... Nams just digs more, looks much better at H5 also, and wraps up more than the GFS resulting in heavier totals

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20 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

GFS is a LHV jackpot, Orange/Rockland, putnum,euro is the southern outlier 

 

nam and GFS are near identical tracks... Nams just digs more, looks much better at H5 also, and wraps up more than the GFS resulting in heavier totals

The 18Z? Looks much better for the coast to me

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23 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

GFS is a LHV jackpot, Orange/Rockland, putnum,euro is the southern outlier 

 

nam and GFS are near identical tracks... Nams just digs more, looks much better at H5 also, and wraps up more than the GFS resulting in heavier totals

GFS 18z seems to look like the Euro-coast and central NJ favored. NAM is pretty much a redo of the big Feb 2001 inland storm-the snow stripe looks almost an exact match. 

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