weatherpruf Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: Probably going to be 3-5" on the ground for most of NNJ by sunrise. My town just told us garbage will be picked up at midnight. They are taking this seriously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Major subsidence over the metro on the NAM this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Probably going to be 3-5" on the ground for most of NNJ by sunrise. Anyway to tell when the switch-over will occur for the southern half of NJ? Looks like a lot of rain to start. That's going to eat into totals... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 City is 0.8-0.9 verbatim on the 12km. The snow hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 The NAM is warm for LI, CNJ and SNJ to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, RUMG11 said: Anyway to tell when the switch-over will occur for the southern half of NJ? Looks like a lot of rain to start. That's going to eat into totals... Going to be tough. ACY is 43 degrees at 10z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Orange County jackpot... Harriman area? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, Morris said: City is 0.8-0.9 verbatim on the 12km. The snow hole. Deformation bands are hard to pinpoint. Have to look at the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, packfan98 said: Yeah, this did a large part of the southern half of NJ no favors. Significant drop off even toward Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 10:1 ratios. I think 15:1 is better, maybe even higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, mimillman said: Major subsidence over the metro on the NAM this run. The NAM is likely overdoing it with the band over NW NJ and the Hudson Valley. Literally every other model has the most QPF near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Orange County jackpot... Harriman area? Lol Every couple hours someone talks about a new jackpot.....one hour everything is perfect, the next the city is in a snowhole....if 8-10 inches is a snowhole, give me a few of those every winter.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Going to be tough. ACY is 43 degrees at 10z. Sheesh... At that rate doubt we see flakes till after 9-10am. Here's hoping the NAM is wrong on temps lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 SREF mean took a big jump across the board. Newburgh now has the mean ataround 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Nam para has around 1 inch qpf for NYC with more to the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, mimillman said: SREF mean took a big jump across the board. Newburgh now has the mean ataround 15 Was just gonna post this... srefs made huge jump NW with heavier totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Posts without specifics are going to be deleted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 FWIW the HRRR which is almost always too far NW at the end of its run is not anywhere close to the NAM tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 What did the Euro Ensembles show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Was just gonna post this... srefs made huge jump NW with heavier totals What about the rest of the forum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 PARA NAM HAS NW NJ TO ORANGE COUNTY JP. OVER 1.25" FOR THAT ENTIRE AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 hour ago, TriPol said: I wonder... how many 10"+ storms have we had since Dec 2000? I can remember: Dec 2000 Feb 2003 I remember at least two storms in 2005 February 2006 December 2009 February 2010 December 2010 January 2011 November 2012 Feb 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2016 What am I missing? Feb 2010 had two...2/10 and 2/26. NYC only got 4.5" in Nov 2012, suburbs had 8-10"... Feb 2014 had like 12".... Jan 26, 2015 had 10"+, more im Brooklyn and Queens. I believe there was only one in 04-05, 1/28/05. You are missing Dec 2003. Northern suburbs had 10"+ on 12/25/02. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, RUMG11 said: Sheesh... At that rate doubt we see flakes till after 9-10am. Here's hoping the NAM is wrong on temps lol On this run I'm not sure you see any flakes at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: FWIW the HRRR which is almost always too far NW at the end of its run is not anywhere close to the NAM tomorrow morning It looks pretty darn close to me, I mean give or take a few features... these are off by 1 hour so Nam looks spot on with HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: FWIW the HRRR which is almost always too far NW at the end of its run is not anywhere close to the NAM tomorrow morning Don't be fooled by the pretty colors on the HRRR sim radar. If you look at temperatures, most of that bright banding is from rain or mixed precip. NW of that line is where the serious snow is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: On this run I'm not sure you see any flakes at all At this rate, I'm preparing for rain. Looks like a large portion of the southern half of NJ will be washed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: It looks pretty darn close to me, I mean give or take a few features... Thats the 14z HRRR, I was looking at the 18Z run at 11-12Z tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 The 4 km NAM has the heaviest snow totals somewhat to the south and east of the 12 km version. Both versions of the NAM are to the north and west of the RGEM. The differences likely have much to do where the models anticipate the banding will develop. At this time, I think a widespread 8"-14" forecast is probably reasonable without worrying too much about where the heaviest amounts will be located. It will be interesting to see where the 18z RGEM places the axis of heaviest snow. The 4 km NAM through 27 hours (2/9 21z) is below (Kuchera Ratio), as the 12 km version was posted earlier in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Metro looks good for this one, some models have JP to the northwest, some have it over LI and east....split the difference on average Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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