ILoveWinter Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, danstorm said: Yep - in this day and age, how many times have we seen this progression? Storm signal 3 days out, models start to latch on... and each run essentially builds and builds until the output is completely maxed. It's unreal. Totally agree. I would say though that for this storm, we had general model agreement on at least a moderate storm (5"+) relatively early, especially compared to recent storms where it felt like everything came together a day before hand! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, sferic said: Is it feasible with the afternoon package that Upton bumps total for NYC/LI from the 6-12 to 10-16 or even the magical 12-18 ? I can see them maybe going to 10-15", above that might wait until tonight if we see more crazy outputs like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 NYC will be around average for the winter if we get 12+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Tmrw will be a disaster out there on the roads if ppl don't stay home.... Most heavy hitters aren't timed on a weekday am rush hr. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 I wonder... how many 10"+ storms have we had since Dec 2000? I can remember: Dec 2000 Feb 2003 I remember at least two storms in 2005 February 2006 December 2009 February 2010 December 2010 January 2011 November 2012 Feb 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2016 What am I missing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 UKMET really bumped up totals. Everyone is 25MM+ with 30+ from NYC South and East Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: UKMET really bumped up totals. Everyone is 25MM+ with 30+ from NYC South and East What's with the inconsistency between models of how far south the freezing line digs? Is that just models not being uniform in temps? It seems like an impossible feat, given the timing of the storm. Considering the brunt of it falls in the 4-7am hours, doesn't that help the cause? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 11 minutes ago, TriPol said: I wonder... how many 10"+ storms have we had since Dec 2000? I can remember: Dec 2000 Feb 2003 I remember at least two storms in 2005 February 2006 December 2009 February 2010 December 2010 January 2011 November 2012 Feb 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2016 What am I missing? There was only 1 that I know of in 2005 but you missed Dec 2003. There were 2 in Feb 2010. Nov 2012 was not 10+ for this area. Feb 2014 and Jan 2015 (NYC east). March 2009 was 10+ in LI and central NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 I love the Snow and am stoked for this storm-----> that said these numbers are almost too good to be true is it possible that the models are overdoing this thing ? I mean when have we seen something this incredible in such a short period of time ,,I cant remember it snowing this hard ,not even in the Blizzard of 78 did we get 4 inches an hour or did we ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
husky0101 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 what's the criteria for a blizzard watch/warning? is it visibility less than .25 miles AND winds over 35 mph? or is it visibility less than .25 miles OR winds over 35 mph? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: I love the Snow and am stoked for this storm-----> that said these numbers are almost too good to be true is it possible that the models are overdoing this thing ? I mean when have we seen something this incredible in such a short period of time ,,I cant remember it snowing this hard ,not even in the Blizzard of 78 did we get 4 inches an hour or did we ? Yes. Its definitely possible. Gotta still remain fearful, and keep praying If the rug gets pulled out from us again, Im afraid I may snap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, husky0101 said: what's the criteria for a blizzard watch/warning? is it visibility less than .25 miles AND winds over 35 mph? or is it visibility less than .25 miles OR winds over 35 mph? is this a trick question ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
husky0101 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, Brasiluvsnow said: is this a trick question ? no i was genuinely wondering if conditions were bad enough to warrant a blizzard watch/warning in some areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Brasiluvsnow said: is this a trick question ? The criteria has to be 35 MPH winds sustained for 3 straight hours to be classified as a blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, KeithB said: Yes. Its definitely possible. Gotta still remain fearful, and keep praying If the rug gets pulled out from us again, Im afraid I may snap we both sure hope not ! Also Blizzard criteria is visibility less than a quarter mile and winds over 35 and blowing snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: I love the Snow and am stoked for this storm-----> that said these numbers are almost too good to be true is it possible that the models are overdoing this thing ? I mean when have we seen something this incredible in such a short period of time ,,I cant remember it snowing this hard ,not even in the Blizzard of 78 did we get 4 inches an hour or did we ? Jan. 27, 2011 NYC metro and LI received rates of 2"-5" an hour for several hours. 18"+ came in a 6-8 hour period. Multiple house shaking thunder strikes also in that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Does anyone have BUFKIT for the NYC stations for the ECM? The ratios have got to be nuts to be dropping nearly 1.5' of snow in such a short time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Thanks for the reply AG3 I still think that night was the hardest I ever saw it snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 8, 2017 Author Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, allgame830 said: The criteria has to be 35 MPH winds sustained for 3 straight hours to be classified as a blizzard. IT also needs to have a quarter mile visibility or less for those 3 hours. So both! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 22 minutes ago, TriPol said: I wonder... how many 10"+ storms have we had since Dec 2000? I can remember: Dec 2000 Feb 2003 I remember at least two storms in 2005 February 2006 December 2009 February 2010 December 2010 January 2011 November 2012 Feb 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2016 What am I missing? Just since the winter of 09-10 this will be the 22nd storm to produce a max over 10" somewhere in the OKX forecast zones. Not too shabby in 8 winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, NortheastPAWx said: Does anyone have BUFKIT for the NYC stations for the ECM? The ratios have got to be nuts to be dropping nearly 1.5' of snow in such a short time. There's 1.0-1.2" liquid NYC and east just about. That means the average ratio would be 20-1 to generate amounts like what the maps show. That's probably high, I would expect 12 or 13-1. But regardless, the evolution the Euro shows would be a winter thermonuclear bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West of Town Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Of course, it's not anywhere near the dynamics, but this setup reminded me of the lulling of the populace with mild weather prior to temperatures crashing in the accounts from 1888. http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2011/02/blizzard_of_1888_makes_our_win.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, jm1220 said: There's 1.0-1.2" liquid NYC and east just about. That means the average ratio would be 20-1 to generate amounts like what the maps show. That's probably high, I would expect 12 or 13-1. But regardless, the evolution the Euro shows would be a winter thermonuclear bomb. Well verbatim ECM was 16" Kuchera so it'd have to be 15 or 16:1. But yeah even at 12-13 it's over a foot, largely in a 6-hour timeframe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 I wonder how the native americans survived these snowstorms.... no infrastructure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 8, 2017 Author Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: There's 1.0-1.2" liquid NYC and east just about. That means the average ratio would be 20-1 to generate amounts like what the maps show. That's probably high, I would expect 12 or 13-1. But regardless, the evolution the Euro shows would be a winter thermonuclear bomb. Or a bombogenesis God I love that word! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBlitzkrieg Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 i still cant believe that Euro run. the Hour 24 panel has 2-3" and then the Hour 30 panel has 16-19". one of the coolest things i've ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 The criteria has to be 35 MPH winds sustained for 3 straight hours to be classified as a blizzard. And vis below 1/4 miSent from my XT1565 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, SnowBlitzkrieg said: i still cant believe that Euro run. the Hour 24 panel has 2-3" and then the Hour 30 panel has 16-19". one of the coolest things i've ever seen. Yea euro says Long Island gets 15" of snow in 6 hours.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
husky0101 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, The Plowsman said: And vis below 1/4 mi Sent from my XT1565 using Tapatalk do you think it's possible for a blizzard watch/warning to be issued by upton for the metro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Yea euro says Long Island gets 15" of snow in 6 hours.... If the models are not all out to lunch, tomorrow should be fun. Short-lived, but still fun. Hopefully something can happen to slow this thing down, though I'm not sure what that would be at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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