RUMG11 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: I have family on Zion Rd in Egg Harbor. Big difference from Brooklyn. You should do decently there. Nice area. When Mt. Holly issues WSW's for the entire state, outside of your own county... feels bad man lol Lets keep that R/S line moving south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 NAM and GFS have virtually identical qpf for NYC as well as start and end time NAM .99 GFS .98 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Time to activate storm mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 What out using Zulu time can we get a start and end time am-pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Below is a list of NYC's 4" or greater snowfalls following days with high temperatures of 50° or above. As of 11 am, NYC has a high temperature of 55°. LGA and JFK have highs of 59° and 58° respectively. Awesome table, Don. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West of Town Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The shifts around in max QPF are also just model noise for the most part. Bands won't be nailed down until the very end. The favored spots for the jackpot are on the north shore in Suffolk and just north and west of NYC, but everyone's in for a very nice event. Thank you. I'm in MMU, and while it's no coastal Monmouth or Western Suffolk, let's not forget that most of us will enjoy a really nice event, even if it's not historic. I'll go Full Dad for a moment: Please don't lose sight of how rare this was in the late '80s and early '90s. Those were my elementary school years and NEVER saw anything like this. Please be grateful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Below is a list of NYC's 4" or greater snowfalls following days with high temperatures of 50° or above. As of 11 am, NYC has a high temperature of 55°. LGA and JFK have highs of 59° and 58° respectively. Don , it DIVES into the low 20s at the height , there is so much upward motion as the system is so dynamic that the cold level just collapses right to 2M. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, BlizzardNYC said: What out using Zulu time can we get a start and end time am-pm You're going to get about 15 different answers but roughly 3-5am and done by noon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, Stormlover74 said: You're going to get about 15 different answers but roughly 3-5am and done by noon Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, RUMG11 said: Nice area. When Mt. Holly issues WSW's for the entire state, outside of your own county... feels bad man lol Lets keep that R/S line moving south. Down by you it also makes a difference as to what part of Egg Harbor you're in. If you live out by the Mays Landing border you will do better than areas closer to Somers Point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, North and West of Town said: Thank you. I'm in MMU, and while it's no coastal Monmouth or Western Suffolk, let's not forget that most of us will enjoy a really nice event, even if it's not historic. I'll go Full Dad for a moment: Please don't lose sight of how rare this was in the late '80s and early '90s. Those were my elementary school years and NEVER saw anything like this. Please be grateful. Yep. 4-6" was a huge deal back then and usually closed schools in the burbs. A foot was unheard of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 speed is keeping this from being in the league of boxing day/feb 2013/jan 2016. even so, we look good for a period of 2-4" per hour rates and thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: speed is keeping this from being in the league of boxing day/feb 2013/jan 2016. even so, we look good for a period of 2-4" per hour rates and thunder Classic W Essex / W Union bonus zone storm ;-), what are you thinking for max amounts somewhere in the area? ~ 14/15"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: Down by you it also makes a difference as to what part of Egg Harbor you're in. If you live out by the Mays Landing border you will do better than areas closer to Somers Point. I'm right in the ACY area. A good bit further north then Somers Point, and about a 20 minute drive off Absecon Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, forkyfork said: speed is keeping this from being in the league of boxing day/feb 2013/jan 2016. even so, we look good for a period of 2-4" per hour rates and thunder What are your thoughts about next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, RUMG11 said: I'm right in the ACY area. A good bit further north then Somers Point, and about a 20 minute drive off Absecon Island. So you're close to the mall. You should do pretty good there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, forkyfork said: speed is keeping this from being in the league of boxing day/feb 2013/jan 2016. even so, we look good for a period of 2-4" per hour rates and thunder Looks like a colder version of 1/22/87 to some extent. In and out in about 7 hours, picked up 11.5". East of the city didn't do well, too much mixing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 17 minutes ago, danstorm said: Again, let's not lose the forest for the trees. Accumulation nuances are really noise right now. The CCB will engulf just about everyone and dump - could be some heavier embedded bands but you are all going to get heavy snow. Snowfall for this board is actually about as uniform as it gets for a given storm. I like PB's 8-12 with lollis to 15 right now. Well said. I just posted elsewhere that I could see the general 6-10" winter storm warning forecasts for Central/North Jersey/SENY/LI/CT going up to 8-12" for most in the area, with some areas getting up to 15" where the most intense convective banding is - which can never really be well predicted in advance, given that it's a mesoscale feature, akin to t-storms. Going to be fun to watch. If you can telecommute tomorrow morning (I can, luckily, which means I get to measure snow, lol), please do so, as it's going to be a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Looks like a colder version of 1/22/87 to some extent. In and out in about 7 hours, picked up 11.5". East of the city didn't do well, too much mixing I think some areas were shafted by subsidence too. JFK and NYC measured less than EWR and LGA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 HRRR and hi res RGEM are scary similar.... ignore CT, times aren't lined up and it's still snowing there hrrr rgem hi res Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 There's an impressive amount of cold air right beyond the NY/Canadian Border. Thursday night/Friday am should have some real deal cold to go along with our snow. Also, not a fan of that sucker hole being model in the hrrr to run right through Morris County, but .7 qpf will still be my largest storm of the season. Bring it on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: I think some areas were shafted by subsidence too. JFK and NYC measured less than EWR and LGA The main thing I remember was walking to school with bare ground and trudging home through 10" of snow. By dark we had some sleet and then it was gone, but we had about 5 hours of very intense snow. That storm crushed the midatlantic too however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 26 minutes ago, danstorm said: Again, let's not lose the forest for the trees. Accumulation nuances are really noise right now. The CCB will engulf just about everyone and dump - could be some heavier embedded bands but you are all going to get heavy snow. Snowfall for this board is actually about as uniform as it gets for a given storm. I like PB's 8-12 with lollis to 15 right now. Amazing Dan that we are going to do this in about 10 hours . We will not know where the most intense banding will set up tomorrow until it shows itself on radar .Where the initial maxed out frontogenesis intersects with the CCB is where you see the 12 to 15 numbers . I think in CNJ we have to fight off and hour or 2 of rain to bring the BL back from 50 tonight . But once this explodes it is just going NUKE . Great rates with Thunder . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 12z RGEM has a good amount of sleet for SNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: 12z RGEM has a good amount of sleet for SNJ I'll take the sleet over straight rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, RUMG11 said: I'll take the sleet over straight rain Hopefully it stays to your South Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 10+ for the NYC area and areas just to the west with more in LI. Widespread big snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, PB GFI said: Amazing Dan that we are going to do this in about 10 hours . We will not know where the most intense banding will set up tomorrow until it shows itself on radar .Where the initial maxed out frontogenesis intersects with the CCB is where you see the 12 to 15 numbers . I think in CNJ we have to fight off and hour or 2 of rain to bring the BL back from 50 tonight . But once this explodes it is just going NUKE . Great rates with Thunder . I remember late January 2011 when NYC transitioned from rain to sleet to snow (even had a severe sleet thunderstorm in there), and from about 9 pm to 5 am, so eight hours or so, we had 16 inches of snow (I think the final total was 19", as it was combined with snow that fell earlier in the day, if I recall correctly). Maybe we can get lucky with this storm as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 i think 5 inches in the morning and 14 at night to make 19.. weird thing about the 2011 storm it brought so much warm air up around that places in upstate ny and new england it was to warm to snow.. we got lucky here in nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 10 minutes ago, NYCGreg said: I remember late January 2011 when NYC transitioned from rain to sleet to snow (even had a severe sleet thunderstorm in there), and from about 9 pm to 5 am, so eight hours or so, we had 16 inches of snow (I think the final total was 19", as it was combined with snow that fell earlier in the day, if I recall correctly). Maybe we can get lucky with this storm as well. That night was one of the best snow events I've seen here by far. My total was about 16" IIRC but 13 of it fell in 4 hours with the upper air low. It was literally just a wall of white. This coming event might give that one a good run if the RGEM is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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