MJO812 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Gfs is a crush job for NYC and LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, yhbrooklyn said: Thanks. I like these, too. Which show how much we've lost in December, March and April, but how beefy Jan-Feb have been. The snowfall season has, on average, become more compressed, but the intense snowfalls during the January-February period have more than compensated for the losses from the shortening of the snowfall season. Thank you for sharing these graphs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 The GFS is an all out BLIZZARD for Long Island tomorrow . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gfs is a crush job for NYC and LI 1 minute ago, PB GFI said: The GFS is an all out BLIZZARD for Long Island tomorrow . GFS Jackpots NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Can't wait for the Kuchera map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: GFS Jackpots NJ. The GFS J/Ps NJ snow wise , prob over does the BL on the coast . 2 Blizzard denotes winds . 978 B/M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 If you ever wanted to see a screw zone, SNJ is it. Wow. I could drive 30 minutes north and be in a foot of snow, while I get 2 inches. That gradient is insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, RUMG11 said: If you ever wanted to see a screw zone, SNJ is it. Wow. I could drive 30 minutes north and be in a foot of snow, while I get 2 inches. That gradient is insane. Here's your problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: Here's your problem Yep, GFS is still holding the line further south then the NAM, and the RGEM is giving me hope. Can you share an image of the last run for comparison? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Wow, one of the prettiest short term GFS runs I have seen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Again, let's not lose the forest for the trees. Accumulation nuances are really noise right now. The CCB will engulf just about everyone and dump - could be some heavier embedded bands but you are all going to get heavy snow. Snowfall for this board is actually about as uniform as it gets for a given storm. I like PB's 8-12 with lollis to 15 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 I appreciate Yanks PBP. Not sure what the issue is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, RUMG11 said: Yep, GFS is still holding the line further south then the NAM, and the RGEM is giving me hope. Can you share an image of the last run for comparison? If you're on the mainland you will probably be okay. If you're on a barrier island, not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 We should probably toss the the nam tho.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 10 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Here's what I'm noticing, RGEM imo is too confined with the heavier swath of snow, the track/intensity looks in line with guidance but really confines its mod/heavy band... GFS and Nam both extend that banding about 50 miles further than RGEM Often times that ends up being the case though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: We should probably toss the the nam tho.... That was about the best short term GFS run I have seen for the interior in years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: If you're on the mainland you will probably be okay. If you're on a barrier island, not so much. 20 minutes inland. Will be a nowcast event for us in extreme SNJ. We need that cold air to push that r/s line as south as possible. Slower system gives us more time. I'm encouraged by the RGEM and GFS continuing to model that colder air closer and closer to the coast. Although the NAM has held serve. Euro will be telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 At what point do we take the nam Serious? After the widespread 10+ or before lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, RUMG11 said: 20 minutes inland. Will be a nowcast event for us in extreme SNJ. We need that cold air to push that r/s line as south as possible. Slower system gives us more time. I'm encouraged by the RGEM and GFS continuing to model that colder air closer and closer to the coast. Although the NAM has held serve. Euro will be telling. So you moved to Atlantic County? Where abouts? I am very familiar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: We should probably toss the the nam tho.... No one here has said to toss the NAM. The bickering is getting ridiculous. We should all be thrilled, everyone in this subforum is getting at least 8-10" of snow in the next 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jr461 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Very long time lurker (back to NE weather) and enjoy the PBP. With this storm there seems to be some disparity in start time between 2AM and 5AM. With jury duty in Hackensack looming tomorrow AM, I am hoping enough has fallen by around 6-7AM so it's clear that it needs to be canceled. Anyone with jury duty and weather closure experience? And thanks all for your wonderful analysis! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChineseFood4Snow Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It makes it easier to find the information if people aren't commenting rapidly. Please keep it up, I need the PBP because I'm at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: So you moved to Atlantic County? Where abouts? I am very familiar. Egg Harbor Twp. Work at WJHTC so hoping for a possible snow day Would much rather be up at Rutgers tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, jr461 said: Very long time lurker (back to NE weather) and enjoy the PBP. With this storm there seems to be some disparity in start time between 2AM and 5AM. With jury duty in Hackensack looming tomorrow AM, I am hoping enough has fallen by around 6-7AM so it's clear that it needs to be canceled. Anyone with jury duty and weather closure experience? And thanks all for your wonderful analysis! Not sure but I'd imagine they would have to cancel, even if only an inch is on the ground by 6 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Next posts i pinky, said posters are getting a timeout until after next weeks potential is either realized or goes away. This is insane. Grow up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, RUMG11 said: Egg Harbor Twp. Work at WJHTC so hoping for a possible snow day I have family on Zion Rd in Egg Harbor. Big difference from Brooklyn. You should do decently there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 The shifts around in max QPF are also just model noise for the most part. Bands won't be nailed down until the very end. The favored spots for the jackpot are on the north shore in Suffolk and just north and west of NYC, but everyone's in for a very nice event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Working in Brooklyn today not much time to read...can someone give me the cliff notes for laguardia tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Below is a list of NYC's 4" or greater snowfalls following days with high temperatures of 50° or above. As of 11 am, NYC has a high temperature of 55°. LGA and JFK have highs of 59° and 58° respectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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