mriceyman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: Last January's blizzard didn't drop visibility much? It certainly didnt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Last January's blizzard didn't drop visibility much? Just 12 hours of 1-2" hour rates. No biggie. I do believe there are some 3/4" hours rates in the deform with this though which we didn't see with last years blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Just 12 hours of 1-2" hour rates. No biggie. I do believe there are some 3/4" hours rates in the deform with this though which we didn't see with last years blizzard The videos from Long Beach I saw were insane with practically zero visibility in the height of it, but I know not far north of the city had much less. Hopefully the warm air to start doesn't cut into it too much here, but around 6-9am should be epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: From experience these always come in faster than modeled so I would be conservative. In earlier, out earlier. But you always have the "oh its back building crew" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: The videos from Long Beach I saw were insane with practically zero visibility in the height of it, but I know not far north of the city had much less. Hopefully the warm air to start doesn't cut into it too much here, but around 6-9am should be epic. Out this way it was a nice long duration storm but we never got more than 1" per hour rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Frontogensis (mid-level lift) on the nam is really impressive, 3-4" per hour rates easily, westchester is still my jackpot zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Really wish this thing could slow down and longer duration! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 13 minutes ago, mriceyman said: It certainly didnt The areas that saw the heaviest snow had some periods with 1/8 mile or less visibility. One photo from the storm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Really wish this thing could slow down and longer duration! You will enjoy Day 8 / 9 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 12z RGEM looks solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 From 12-00Z it looks like it destroys LI, NYC probably good too but LI is better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, PB GFI said: You will enjoy Day 8 . Problem is it is day 8! I assume more of a blocking pattern is forecasted for that time? Sorry for the digression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 12z RGEM comes in around 10z and exits by 21z everywhere except E LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, White Gorilla said: Problem is it is day 8! I assume more of a blocking pattern is forecasted for that time? Sorry for the digression. Yes . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Heaviest snows on the RGEM are in agreement with the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Nam and Rgem looks like around 12 inches for the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Eyeballing the RGEM is looks like 25MM+ for most people here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Could be some TSSN with this I think. Joe Cioffi thinks it could happen as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, dmillz25 said: Could be some TSSN with this I think. Joe Cioffi thinks it could happen as well With the dynamics, there could be thundersnow. It will be interesting to see the soundings when they come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 RGEM surely looks to keep the R/S line much further SE then the NAM. LI and coastal areas would prefer this. Although the RGEM usually runs colder if i'm not mistaken Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: With the dynamics, there could be thundersnow. It will be interesting to see the soundings when they come out. Agree Don . There could be 3 to 4 inch rates tomorrow for 3 hours for some . I think some on the board max out at 15 . 8 to 12 area wide is my forecast . Another KU for the board . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, RUMG11 said: RGEM surely looks to keep the R/S line much further SE then the NAM. LI and coastal areas would prefer this. Although the RGEM usually runs colder if i'm not mistaken Hopefully the NAM is a little overdone. An amped setup like that keeps warm air in longer on the coast. But I think regardless it only cuts an inch or two off at most. Once the heavy stuff arrives it's snow everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, PB GFI said: Agree Don . There could be 3 to 4 inch rates tomorrow for 3 hours for some . I think some on the board max out at 15 . 8 to 12 area wide is my forecast . Another KU for the board . I agree with your forecast. It seems well in line with the dynamics, which can be more important than just the qpf output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 RGEM is about 5-7" for immediate 84 area...fingers crossed up here the nams correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, jm1220 said: Hopefully the NAM is a little overdone. An amped setup like that keeps warm air in longer on the coast. But I think regardless it only cuts an inch or two off at most. Once the heavy stuff arrives it's snow everywhere. For some (myself in SENJ) an inch or two may be all we see hahaha. So i'm hoping for an RGEM solution. Posters have mentioned that the 4k NAM has probably had the best grasp on temp setups for the past few storms. If so, coastal areas are indeed going to see the switch over a bit later. could noticeably cut some accums from what these qpf maps are spitting out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Old for comparison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: I agree with your forecast. It seems well in line with the dynamics, which can be more important than just the qpf output. The soundings I saw suggest lift in the -12 to -18C layer which should help with ratios. I doubt it's anything like 15-1 except well inland but it could help push totals close to 12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 I think some of that rain, if it even happens, might be associated with the cold front. The cold is pressing as the storm is coming. Looks like a good storm incoming, and after this very warm day too. Its impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 9 minutes ago, PB GFI said: Agree Don . There could be 3 to 4 inch rates tomorrow for 3 hours for some . I think some on the board max out at 15 . 8 to 12 area wide is my forecast . Another KU for the board . The 2010's continues to be the greatest era in modern history for KU storms. If you can find it, Dr.Dewpoint posted a bar graph for each decade with the 2010's towering over all the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 I would probably use 15:1 with this storm just to give a nice round number, so that 0.50" in NW NJ is probably still 6-8". Places closer to the coast could be over a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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