Juliancolton Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I thought it was going to go more crazy than it did. It seems to want to speed and or open a bit after 15Z. The RGEM has snow, albeit light til 21Z in NYC while the NAM really shuts off by 19 Yeah, it didn't really avail of the the early positive 500mb trends. Still a welcomed NW shift for those of us on the fringe, but not the bozo solution that I expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 The 4k PARA NAM is showing a bit of a warm layer at 925mb over most of LI and coastal SNJ that doesn't get completely overcome until 09z. If things do come in a bit faster than currently modeled some areas could lose a few hours to mixing. The surface is right at 32, so there could be some freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: Yeah, it didn't really avail of the the early positive 500mb trends. Still a welcomed NW shift for those of us on the fringe, but not the bozo solution that I expected. What were you expecting when the storm is in and out in around 8 hours at most? It's a solid 6+ hours of 2"+ per hour rates for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 4k totals, adjust for ratios yourself lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: The 4k PARA NAM is showing a bit of a warm layer at 925mb over most of LI and coastal SNJ that doesn't get completely overcome until 09z. If things do come in a bit faster than currently modeled some areas could lose a few hours to mixing. The surface is right at 32, so there could be some freezing rain. That certainly wouldn't be freezing rain with 60 today, regardless I think intensity will overcome for all, plus its rally tucked in on hi-res NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: Yeah, it didn't really avail of the the early positive 500mb trends. Still a welcomed NW shift for those of us on the fringe, but not the bozo solution that I expected. You mean like this one? 12z 4k NAM.. Continues to show intense banding in the interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 It's like the southern s/w never fully phases and remains a distinct leading feature outpacing the amplifying trough... the associated vortmax seems to aid in yanking the low east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Too many NAMs! People just cherry pick the best one for them haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, snywx said: You mean like this one? 12z 4k NAM.. Continues to show intense banding in the interior That would actually be fairly widespread intense banding, 12-17" from C/N NJ through S VT/NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: 4k totals, adjust for ratios yourself lol The only model to jackpot me, I'll take it ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 I don't think it'll be much of a problem, but the warm air to start should be watched along the coast. If it goes bonkers too quickly there may be issues to start. An amped low also means a stronger warm layer northeast of the low. It should be overcome within an hour or so and should be heavy snow thereafter. With the coast still in the heaviest precip, there shouldn't be much lost. If I had to guess, northern Suffolk and just NW of the city should see the heaviest totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowheavyattimes Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Should be fun looking at the radar later. Wall of white incoming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, Zelocita Weather said: That would actually be fairly widespread intense banding, 12-17" from C/N NJ through S VT/NH Creating serious subsidence to the E of it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: It's like the southern s/w never fully phases and remains a distinct leading feature outpacing the amplifying trough... the associated vortmax seems to aid in yanking the low east. This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 7 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: That certainly wouldn't be freezing rain with 60 today, regardless I think intensity will overcome for all, plus its rally tucked in on hi-res NAM. A narrow warm layer around 925mb would be a freezing rain profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: What were you expecting when the storm is in and out in around 8 hours at most? It's a solid 6+ hours of 2"+ per hour rates for most. 8 hours is being generous it would appear on the latest model runs, especially from the city, west. This thing will be flying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, snowman19 said: 8 hours is being generous it would appear on the latest model runs, especially from the city, west. This thing will be flying Yeah, I think by this time tomorrow things are already starting to wind down West of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: A narrow warm layer around 925mb would be a freezing rain profile. I think he means the surface would be way too warm for any rain to actually freeze even if the air is 32, plus it would be brief Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 8, 2017 Author Share Posted February 8, 2017 There's going to be the heaviest snow we seen in years in terms of visibilities! can't wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 What's the general consensus for a start time right now for manahattan. I need to plan exactly when I'm heading In for snow removal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, Stormlover74 said: I think he means the surface would be way too warm for any rain to actually freeze even if the air is 32, plus it would be brief I was by no means implying that significant icing is on the table, but it could start out that way out there with the surface below freezing and a shallow warm layer aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: What's the general consensus for a start time right now for manahattan. I need to plan exactly when I'm heading In for snow removal 2AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Now we await the RGEM. Starting to get solidly into its wheelhouse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 2AM I would say closer to 3am for the onset of mod snow. Heavy snow moves in around 5am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: There's going to be the heaviest snow we seen in years in terms of visibilities! can't wait This is not true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: 2AM I was thinking 3 but that sounds about right thanks. No room for error with a wall of white incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, mimillman said: I would say closer to 3am for the onset of mod snow. Heavy snow moves in around 5am. He asked when the snow was starting, not the heavier stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: There's going to be the heaviest snow we seen in years in terms of visibilities! can't wait Last January's blizzard didn't drop visibility much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I was thinking 3 but that sounds about right thanks. No room for error with a wall of white incoming From experience these always come in faster than modeled so I would be conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, jm1220 said: Last January's blizzard didn't drop visibility much? Eh, that was like 30 hours here of light to moderate snow. I had less than a 1/10 mile visibility here last week in a snow squall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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