MJO812 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: RGEM is near a foot of NYC To my point, this is a case where subsidence happens off the coast and then migrates to over Boston. Like I said, it'll set up somewhere and totals will be significantly reduced in that area, but it's not necessarily us. These are usually nowcasting scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: RGEM is near a foot of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Congrats LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Here's the subsidence zone on the 00z RGEM. IMO, a best case scenario because Patriots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, Allsnow said: Congrats LI LI certainly has been the place for snow these past few years.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Port Jeff JP once again. That place is a snow magnet lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 The first RGEM map assumes 10 to 1 ratio. The 700 temps are good but not spectacular, winds will be somewhat brisk and surface temps are okay. I would say 11 to 12:1 is possible but I'm not sure about much better than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Damn. Too bad still 30 hours to go. 16" imby..lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The first RGEM map assumes 10 to 1 ratio. The 700 temps are good but not spectacular, winds will be somewhat brisk and surface temps are okay. I would say 11 to 12:1 is possible but I'm not sure about much better than that. NAM isn't great with 700mb temps at -5.2 at 36 hours. However, looks cold enough for mostly snow even at onset. Station ID: KJFK Lat: 40.63 Long: -73.76 NAM Model Run: 0Z FEB 8, 2017 Forecast Hours: 0hr 6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr 30hr 36hr 42hr 48hr 54hr 60hr 66hr 72hr 78hr 84hr Sfc Prs(mb): 1007.6 1001.3 1001.5 1005.7 1008.3 1007.0 1002.2 1003.6 1011.8 1018.6 1023.6 1025.6 1026.4 1021.9 1015.6 Mean SLP (mb): 1008.1 1001.6 1001.7 1005.9 1008.5 1007.5 1002.8 1004.2 1012.4 1019.2 1024.2 1026.3 1026.9 1022.6 1016.2 2m agl Tmp (F): 37.9 41.7 46.2 50.3 43.0 35.3 31.4 30.2 22.3 16.7 18.4 24.4 23.8 26.8 33.3 2m agl Dewpt(F): 37.1 40.0 45.1 43.6 36.1 29.9 29.7 25.3 12.7 7.8 11.7 14.4 16.0 22.1 27.9 2m agl RH (%): 97 94 96 77 76 80 93 81 66 68 75 65 72 82 80 10m agl Dir: 59 208 223 295 345 28 20 338 317 311 283 289 267 206 216 10m agl Spd(kt): 5 11 12 9 7 10 14 18 18 17 14 15 8 10 13 6hr Precip (in): 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.29 0.38 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 AccumPrecip(in): 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.31 0.69 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.71 0.71 Sfc CAPE (J/kg): 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.3 19.8 3.2 0.0 1.9 33.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 Sfc CINH (J/kg): 0.0 -0.9 0.0 -0.8 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -0.6 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -1.2 0.0 -0.6 -0.5 0-3km Hel(J/kg): 476.2 291.9 280.9 51.1 200.6 283.4 1356.5 130.9 55.1 40.0 227.9 64.0 68.8 516.8 344.3 Precip H20 (in): 0.89 0.86 0.83 0.49 0.53 0.55 0.66 0.34 0.14 0.08 0.11 0.16 0.35 0.48 0.55 Lifted Index(C): 2.3 1.0 1.2 8.7 12.0 8.9 13.2 12.3 15.5 15.8 22.2 28.6 28.5 22.3 17.2 700mb VV(-ub/s): 0.8 3.3 2.8 0.6 -0.9 1.4 25.5 0.1 3.1 -0.6 -2.7 -1.0 0.2 2.2 3.0 Thk1000-500mb(m)5534.9 5545.8 5518.3 5482.7 5435.1 5417.5 5390.8 5264.0 5106.4 5020.0 5091.3 5202.1 5291.8 5344.9 5422.2 Thk1000-850mb(m)1342.4 1358.6 1356.0 1334.8 1319.4 1302.7 1284.6 1269.9 1245.7 1231.4 1236.0 1239.7 1251.6 1266.0 1294.2 Thk850-700mb(m):1589.7 1585.1 1570.2 1563.4 1548.1 1548.5 1532.7 1492.9 1446.2 1418.6 1425.1 1459.6 1489.4 1508.3 1541.7 SWEAT Index: 234.5 228.4 182.9 112.5 107.7 130.3 97.8 96.6 122.7 134.0 163.9 141.5 118.8 256.4 132.1 Total Totals Idx 47.7 46.8 48.2 35.8 27.0 34.8 31.3 36.3 30.3 27.2 19.9 7.2 0.8 16.1 23.6 Frz Hgt(ft amsl) 10130 9425 8481 8235 6310 1062 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 469 0WetBlbHgt(amsl) 8963 7721 7705 4502 2533 243 -1000 -1000 -1000 -1000 -1000 -1000 -1000 -1000 -1000 Equil Prs (mb): 1008 1001 1001 1006 1008 1007 1002 893 1012 1019 1024 836 1026 1022 1016 Equil Hgt(amsl): 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 3028 10 10 10 5127 10 10 10 Hail Size(in): 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Conv Wind Gust: 56.6 59.0 42.3 48.9 52.1 58.8 13.8 9.5 10.2 12.4 16.2 15.2 12.7 15.9 13.8 Showalter Index: 2.1 2.6 2.4 10.9 13.3 11.7 15.5 14.3 16.4 16.3 22.6 29.5 28.3 23.1 18.2 Cap Strength(C):-999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 0.0 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 Storm Dir (deg): 268 257 284 285 295 271 236 308 317 347 350 343 327 306 307 Storm Spd (kts): 31 41 32 27 27 26 32 23 24 29 39 36 30 36 32 2m HeatIndex(F): 38 42 46 50 43 35 31 30 22 17 18 24 24 27 33 2m WindChill(F): 34 42 46 50 43 27 20 17 7 0 4 11 14 16 23 1000mb GPH (m): 65 13 14 49 70 60 21 33 96 147 185 203 208 176 129 950mb GPH (m): 483 439 443 476 489 472 429 439 495 541 581 601 608 578 538 950mb Temp (C): 5.7 11.9 12.8 8.5 3.9 -0.9 -3.3 -5.4 -9.4 -12.9 -11.5 -10.5 -9.1 -7.2 -2.1 950mb Dewpt(C): 3.9 7.4 10.2 4.3 -0.2 -6.4 -3.8 -6.8 -14.2 -18.1 -15.7 -14.2 -12.4 -10.4 -7.0 950mb RH (%): 88 73 84 75 74 66 96 90 69 65 71 75 77 78 69 950mb Dir: 185 222 248 303 339 40 32 343 319 316 296 293 273 214 222 950mb Speed(kt): 14 44 38 17 16 16 24 27 29 29 29 21 16 23 28 900mb GPH (m): 930 893 896 920 926 904 855 860 909 950 992 1013 1023 998 967 900mb Temp (C): 10.4 13.2 11.2 5.0 2.0 0.3 -4.5 -8.2 -13.4 -16.0 -15.1 -14.5 -12.3 -8.4 -1.3 900mb Dewpt(C): 6.9 8.9 7.5 1.8 -5.7 -7.7 -5.1 -9.0 -16.2 -24.4 -17.9 -15.9 -16.7 -13.7 -10.0 900mb RH (%): 78 74 77 80 57 55 95 94 80 49 80 89 70 66 52 900mb Dir: 224 231 263 287 297 138 59 1 323 328 306 295 295 226 248 900mb Speed(kt): 36 61 43 21 15 2 21 32 34 38 32 22 16 31 36 850mb GPH (m): 1408 1372 1370 1384 1389 1363 1306 1303 1342 1378 1421 1442 1460 1442 1423 850mb Temp (C): 10.8 9.9 7.0 3.3 3.4 1.8 -4.5 -8.7 -16.1 -18.7 -18.5 -18.3 -11.4 -7.4 -1.7 850mb Dewpt(C): 3.5 3.8 4.6 -4.4 -17.2 -9.1 -4.7 -9.8 -22.6 -29.0 -22.2 -20.5 -25.7 -14.0 -10.7 850mb RH (%): 60 65 85 57 21 44 99 92 58 41 73 83 30 59 50 850mb Dir: 235 237 270 270 265 238 112 360 333 334 318 309 310 245 272 850mb Speed(kt): 43 62 39 29 23 16 13 24 40 44 37 25 23 37 31 800mb GPH (m): 1910 1873 1866 1877 1877 1850 1784 1772 1796 1827 1870 1895 1926 1915 1903 800mb Temp (C): 8.2 7.6 4.1 3.6 0.2 0.0 -3.7 -9.4 -17.9 -21.9 -21.8 -16.5 -10.1 -6.3 -2.9 800mb Dewpt(C): 0.4 -2.4 1.7 -13.9 -11.7 -4.3 -3.8 -10.4 -25.8 -30.7 -26.7 -36.2 -23.6 -8.7 -7.6 800mb RH (%): 57 49 84 26 40 73 99 93 51 46 65 17 33 83 70 800mb Dir: 235 235 256 264 265 235 172 336 321 330 319 324 299 270 269 800mb Speed(kt): 39 56 38 33 28 28 21 18 34 45 38 39 30 47 33 750mb GPH (m): 2439 2401 2388 2397 2392 2366 2294 2269 2277 2298 2343 2382 2422 2416 2416 750mb Temp (C): 4.5 3.8 1.1 0.6 -2.2 -1.6 -3.5 -11.6 -19.5 -24.9 -23.8 -15.4 -11.5 -9.6 -1.2 750mb Dewpt(C): -2.0 -4.8 -1.5 -15.7 -5.0 -4.0 -3.5 -12.4 -26.3 -33.5 -32.6 -34.0 -19.0 -11.9 -3.4 750mb RH (%): 62 53 83 28 81 84 100 93 56 46 45 19 54 83 85 750mb Dir: 242 227 248 267 271 239 189 315 300 326 317 320 291 276 275 750mb Speed(kt): 45 59 44 41 39 37 39 18 28 45 44 47 39 57 41 700mb GPH (m): 2997 2957 2941 2947 2937 2912 2838 2796 2788 2797 2846 2902 2949 2950 2965 700mb Temp (C): 0.7 -0.7 -1.9 -2.5 -4.5 -5.1 -5.2 -13.2 -20.9 -27.2 -23.5 -15.6 -12.8 -8.6 -3.9 700mb Dewpt(C): -3.1 -7.1 -7.7 -20.0 -7.5 -8.1 -5.5 -15.2 -31.4 -37.7 -45.9 -31.2 -16.0 -9.9 -4.0 700mb RH (%): 76 62 64 25 80 79 98 85 39 37 12 26 77 90 99 700mb Dir: 244 223 249 262 269 240 196 288 283 320 320 318 293 286 280 700mb Speed(kt): 51 62 47 43 42 41 53 22 25 40 54 52 44 63 47 650mb GPH (m): 3588 3544 3526 3531 3517 3490 3418 3358 3331 3328 3387 3460 3514 3525 3547 650mb Temp (C): -3.9 -4.8 -5.4 -6.2 -8.1 -8.9 -7.9 -15.4 -24.2 -29.3 -24.3 -16.3 -12.5 -8.8 -7.0 650mb Dewpt(C): -6.2 -9.5 -14.4 -22.0 -12.1 -11.6 -8.0 -19.2 -31.2 -42.7 -50.1 -33.4 -14.2 -9.6 -9.6 650mb RH (%): 85 70 49 28 73 80 99 73 53 28 8 22 87 94 82 650mb Dir: 242 222 253 250 263 241 205 261 272 312 322 315 297 290 287 650mb Speed(kt): 55 62 49 44 44 45 61 29 26 35 59 60 50 64 50 600mb GPH (m): 4213 4169 4148 4151 4134 4105 4037 3959 3911 3895 3968 4059 4126 4142 4166 600mb Temp (C): -9.3 -8.9 -9.3 -10.3 -12.0 -12.0 -11.3 -17.9 -27.5 -32.5 -26.2 -18.7 -13.1 -11.2 -10.7 600mb Dewpt(C): -11.3 -12.5 -22.7 -25.3 -16.4 -15.0 -11.4 -23.5 -34.9 -45.3 -51.2 -36.7 -14.5 -12.0 -15.4 600mb RH (%): 86 75 33 29 70 78 99 62 51 28 8 20 89 94 69 600mb Dir: 238 224 255 240 254 238 214 241 258 302 323 313 299 290 291 600mb Speed(kt): 57 59 49 48 52 54 65 37 28 36 66 67 64 66 56 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomcatct Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, nesussxwx said: Port Jefknow JP once again. .ce is a snow magnet lol... Of course this map makes me smile..but i Know this heavy band is gonna move around between now and thursday..whoever ends up under the heavy banding will be happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Gfs about to crush I-95 Hr 36 ownage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, psv88 said: Damn. Too bad still 30 hours to go. 16" imby..lol... The 18z GEM-LAM was obscene Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Model noise but GFS looks like it cut back on totals a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, Rjay said: The 18z GEM-LAM was obscene Where do you access the GEM LAM? I haven't found it in over a year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 GFS maybe a hair SE and a little drier-it's really noise at this point. I think it's safe to say 8-14" is a good bet areawide. The far northern areas are the toughest call to see how far north the heavy snow makes it and banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 I will hold with a widespread 6-12" from Philadelphia to Boston as a good forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 GFS has the worst of things just before 7am for most-could be 2-3" per hour across the area then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Hi res RGEM is pure gold.. btw 10:1 ratios lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Thursday morning rush hour will be a mess across the tri-state area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Where do you access the GEM LAM? I haven't found it in over a year Make sure you click the Quebec view bc for some reason thats the only way you can viee it now http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?run=18&mode=latest&map=qc&mod=cmc_hrdps&lang=en Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Hi res RGEM is pure gold.. btw 10:1 ratios lol If I remember right that model is best inside 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Hi res RGEM is pure gold.. btw 10:1 ratios lol That orientation seems funky and not characteristic of where this storm looks like it will track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, Rjay said: Make sure you click the Quebec view bc for some reason thats the only way you can viee it now http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?run=18&mode=latest&map=qc&mod=cmc_hrdps&lang=en I don't even recall it being on that site before, I always had to find it somewhere else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: If I remember right that model is best inside 24 You are correct. It's solid inside 36 and really good inside 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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