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Coastal Crusher Feb 9th 2017


WeatherFeen2000

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Just now, jm1220 said:

I agree but the NAM is probably overdoing it along with the strength of the band it has-its a known bias, and the other models aren't doing this. I would expect snow amounts to be a little lighter in the band and a little higher outside it. I do think there will be relative max and min amounts, but not to the degree the NAM has. 

I don't know if I necessarily agree with that logic. Dynamic events tend to have crazy cut offs. I think there will be a crazy cut off between the subsidence and the defo band, but I do not trust the NAM this far out to predict exactly where the defo band will be. I give a lot of credit to the mesoscale models as of late given their performance with other events, but I think we need some more time hashing out the details of the defo band location. For all of our sakes, I hope the subsidence is over the Atlantic, and maybe over Boston because they're too lucky too often. Plus, the Patriots :P

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9 minutes ago, mimillman said:

I don't believe warmth is the problem. I think the column cools down fast enough to support mostly if not all snow in the metro and central NJ. The problem is subsidence as modeled clearly below:

 

subsidence.png

Dude, we still get around 9 inches on this run with around 12 inches on the Nam Para

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7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The RGEM might, the GFS most likely would never have the ability to show what the NAM did because it's resolution isn't good enough 

This always was, is and will be a very fast mover. Real progressive pattern. There is no big -NAO block on the frontside of it to slow the super fast flow down. In a winter like we've had, no one should be mad at a 5-10+  inch snow event

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2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This always was, is and will be a very fast mover. Real progressive pattern. There is no big -NAO block on the frontside of it to slow the super fast flow down. In a winter like we've had, no one should be mad at a 5-10+  inch snow event

Agree

I should be near 20 inches after this storm is done with possibly more snow coming in the next 2 weeks.

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1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Yes but why are you complaining?

Lol I don't think I'm complaining. I think I'm talking about possible outcomes and clarifying that this might not even affect us, but will affect someone in the subforum.

I went into this even this morning thinking 4-7" for the metro, and now I think that should be closer to 6-12". I'm nowhere near complaining haha.

BUT, subsidence will be an issue. Just don't know where quite yet.

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1 minute ago, mimillman said:

Lol I don't think I'm complaining. I think I'm talking about possible outcomes and clarifying that this might not even affect us, but will affect someone in the subforum.

I went into this even this morning thinking 4-7" for the metro, and now I think that should be closer to 6-12". I'm nowhere near complaining haha.

BUT, subsidence will be an issue. Just don't know where quite yet.

But isn't this usually the case somewhere? In the Feb 26 2010 storm, my area in central NJ had lower amounts than the surrounding ones, by a lot. But it was still a decent snow. We just didn't hit the huge amounts.

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4 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

But isn't this usually the case somewhere? In the Feb 26 2010 storm, my area in central NJ had lower amounts than the surrounding ones, by a lot. But it was still a decent snow. We just didn't hit the huge amounts.

Yea I agree. I just caution people saying amounts area-wide will be 10-12", while I think maybe a band will hit 10-12 and the rest of us will hit closer to 6".

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