SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, mimillman said: It's American. You really think 9:20 was the better shot of taking off? No I would take the chance on the first one, but American is extremely conservative when it comes to cancellations for weather. They drop more flights than most other airlines will. I would take my chances with the earlier flight though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Weather channel latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 If models are going to cutback, id expect it by 12z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 14 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: So we're getting less than the models are showing? 13 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Often times we see models overdo QPF in fast moving systems and then in the final 24-36 hours they start cutting back. That doesn't always work though in this area of the country with coastal storms due to the massive moisture with the Atlantic and the mesoscale banding that can occur. There was a storm in the early 2000s where NE PA and the Hudson Valley saw 12-20 inches of snow and the storm lasted all of about 4-6 hours If models are going to start cutting back, I'd expect it by 12z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: No I would take the chance on the first one, but American is extremely conservative when it comes to cancellations for weather. They drop more flights than most other airlines will. I would take my chances with the earlier flight though Ok good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, RUMG11 said: Weather channel latest What's the dark stripe supposed to be 8-12"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 8, 2017 Author Share Posted February 8, 2017 I95 special this is a 8-12 inch snow event for NYC with localized 16 GEFS 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 18 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Often times we see models overdo QPF in fast moving systems and then in the final 24-36 hours they start cutting back. That doesn't always work though in this area of the country with coastal storms due to the massive moisture with the Atlantic and the mesoscale banding that can occur. There was a storm in the early 2000s where NE PA and the Hudson Valley saw 12-20 inches of snow and the storm lasted all of about 4-6 hours Jan 2001 and March 2009 come to mind. 3/09 was a bit different because I believe there was a coastal transfer so there was a screw zone. Jan 2001 just moved very quickly and got like 4-5" instead of 6-10 that was forecasted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Jan 2001 and March 2009 come to mind. 3/09 was a bit different because I believe there was a coastal transfer so there was a screw zone. Jan 2001 just moved very quickly and got like 4-5" instead of 6-10 that was forecasted January 02 was the one I was thinking of. Albany had 14 inches in 4 hours or something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Jan 2001 and March 2009 come to mind. 3/09 was a bit different because I believe there was a coastal transfer so there was a screw zone. Jan 2001 just moved very quickly and got like 4-5" instead of 6-10 that was forecasted People can definitely get over a foot from a storm lasting less than 12 hours. Jan 26, 2011 dropped 13" where I am in 4 hours or so. 1/12/11 did the same in CT and eastern LI. Boxing Day 2010 dropped 18" in eastern NJ in 6 or 8 hours (with totals over 2 feet). About a month ago parts of ME had 20" in 6-8 hours. There won't be huge totals everywhere and it will likely be localized where bands are most persistent, but the models now definitely support totals over a foot within a good sized swath. Fast movement alone won't "greatly cut totals". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 27 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Often times we see models overdo QPF in fast moving systems and then in the final 24-36 hours they start cutting back. That doesn't always work though in this area of the country with coastal storms due to the massive moisture with the Atlantic and the mesoscale banding that can occur. There was a storm in the early 2000s where NE PA and the Hudson Valley saw 12-20 inches of snow and the storm lasted all of about 4-6 hours I grabbed 2 feet on 1/12/11 in Western CT in roughly 12 hrs with about 18" in 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 18 minutes ago, RUMG11 said: Weather channel latest This is a pretty reasonable forecast, which largely aligns with the NWS forecasts for Philly to NYC and is not what some posters were saying earlier about them underplaying snowfall amounts. Also, the map above is a little out of date. Their 8-12" swath includes most of North Jersey and west Central Jersey (as far east as Somerville) and it just about brushes NYC (looks like it includes Newark) and goes through the Hudson Valley into CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 9 minutes ago, RU848789 said: This is a pretty reasonable forecast, which largely aligns with the NWS forecasts for Philly to NYC and is not what some posters were saying earlier about them underplaying snowfall amounts. Also, the map above is a little out of date. Their 8-12" swath includes most of North Jersey and west Central Jersey (as far east as Somerville) and it just about brushes NYC (looks like it includes Newark) and goes through the Hudson Valley into CT. Care to post it? I didn't see that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 27 minutes ago, danstorm said: I grabbed 2 feet on 1/12/11 in Western CT in roughly 12 hrs with about 18" in 5 1/11/11...a memorable night to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 30 minutes ago, jm1220 said: People can definitely get over a foot from a storm lasting less than 12 hours. Jan 26, 2011 dropped 13" where I am in 4 hours or so. 1/12/11 did the same in CT and eastern LI. Boxing Day 2010 dropped 18" in eastern NJ in 6 or 8 hours (with totals over 2 feet). About a month ago parts of ME had 20" in 6-8 hours. There won't be huge totals everywhere and it will likely be localized where bands are most persistent, but the models now definitely support totals over a foot within a good sized swath. Fast movement alone won't "greatly cut totals". I was just thinking jan 26 11. Highest rates I have seen anywhere pushing 5"/hr at the peak. This is a different setup but that illustrates big totals can be done quickly in banding. The way this is being modeled i would really want to be stuck in that 3"/hr deform band for as long as possible to get over a foot. Of course where that happens is all about now cast. Good dynamics and rates look like a given for a time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said: 1/11/11...a memorable night to say the least. Yep. All nighter for me. I still vividly remember the radar just exploding down around NJ and then worrying I was going to dry slot. 27" later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 30 minutes ago, danstorm said: I grabbed 2 feet on 1/12/11 in Western CT in roughly 12 hrs with about 18" in 5 I posted in the NE forum about this storm. I had TWC on, the snow rate had an intensity level to the point where the TWC forecaster said they never seen the color graphic used before. The snow rate was 5" hour rates. Madness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 52 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: You think this can produce TSSN? Forky? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said: 1/11/11...a memorable night to say the least. Best synoptic band I've ever experienced - exceeded 5"/hr, I'll never forget it. And places just to my west got half the amount. From about 11 pm that night until 4 am we went from 4" to 22". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Anybody remember that storm on January 16th, 2011 I think, that dropped I believe 9" or so in NYC from 10-6am? It started out as sleet and quickly flipped over, was snowing at 2-3" rates at the height of the storm overnight. Storm was done by 6am. A fast mover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I was just thinking jan 26 11. Highest rates I have seen anywhere pushing 5"/hr at the peak. This is a different setup but that illustrates big totals can be done quickly in banding. The way this is being modeled i would really want to be stuck in that 3"/hr deform band for as long as possible to get over a foot. Of course where that happens is all about now cast. Good dynamics and rates look like a given for a time Oh yeah here we go. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, danstorm said: Best synoptic band I've ever experienced - exceeded 5"/hr, I'll never forget it. And places just to my west got half the amount. From about 11 pm that night until 4 am we went from 4" to 22". Did that one miss the city? I remember boxing day and Jan 27 but not this particular one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Did that one miss the city? I remember boxing day and Jan 27 but not this particular one https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_25–27,_2011_North_American_blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 25 minutes ago, RUMG11 said: Care to post it? I didn't see that one Sorry, only saw it on TV... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Did that one miss the city? I remember boxing day and Jan 27 but not this particular one No but LI and CT got the brunt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Did that one miss the city? I remember boxing day and Jan 27 but not this particular one The City had around 8". I had 14.5" in Dobbs Ferry...great storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTNoreaster Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Quick advice on timing...flying JFK at 7:45pm. Thoughts on the likelihood of that flight taking off later in the day Thursday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Did that one miss the city? I remember boxing day and Jan 27 but not this particular one I remember having about 9" from that one but Port Jefferson getting 18-20". The banding developed just a hair too east for the city and the snow shut off there once the bands started up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 The SREF mean looks sick but the ARW members are so far NW that it makes me lolz. Look at the spread haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 And dont worry coastal folks. You will not be raining during the height of this storm on a north or NNE wind in this set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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