Snowlover33 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 19 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: novice here----is there any reason to think this storm could or might slow down or stall ? From the Mid Atlantic Forum: Both the 12z Euro and 18z Rgem have the mesoscale feature that rolled through NOLA today developing into a weak low off of NC. In both cases, that low gums things up and impedes the progress of our main low, allowing the cold air to rush in and for the system to amp up a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Seldom mentioned but ARW, and NMM are both tucked into coast compared to GFS, deform band over NYC, SENY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 hour ago, Doorman said: Cut Off Line will break you!!!! Yo T, need an avatar........ Again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 WPC now has it 50/50 for a total of 8" in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
husky0101 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Question - is there a reason that weather companies (like AccuWeather and Weather.com) are calling for total snowfall projections to be around 3-6, 4-8 instead of 6-12? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, husky0101 said: Question - is there a reason that weather companies (like AccuWeather and Weather.com) are calling for total snowfall projections to be around 3-6, 4-8 instead of 6-12? Those forecasts are usually computer generated based off of one model, usually the GFS. It's as basic a forecast as you'll get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mriceyman Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, husky0101 said: Question - is there a reason that weather companies (like AccuWeather and Weather.com) are calling for total snowfall projections to be around 3-6, 4-8 instead of 6-12? They are always last to the party Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
husky0101 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Nibor said: Those forecasts are usually computer generated based off of one model, usually the GFS. It's as basic a forecast as you'll get. If that were the case, wouldn't their forecast be 6-12 right now? Haven't most models reached a consensus on 6+ inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Nibor said: Those forecasts are usually computer generated based off of one model, usually the GFS. It's as basic a forecast as you'll get. TWC, at least the maps they would likely be showing now on their evening show are prepared by their own meteorologists. I would hope they're showing more than 3-6 for NYC at this point. I've found they've been much better the last few years. The forecasts on the web are another story, those can be strange Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 HOLY COW! forget the WPC. NAM COBB METHOD IS SUDDENDLY 12"+ AND GFS COBB METHOD IS A WHOPPING 21"!!! WARNING to Sanitation: These amounts come in a short interval of time apparently, less than 15 hours. They will have to be on their toes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, husky0101 said: Question - is there a reason that weather companies (like AccuWeather and Weather.com) are calling for total snowfall projections to be around 3-6, 4-8 instead of 6-12? I am sure those forecasts will be updated later tonight or tomorrow morning if the models continue to show the higher snowfall totals. Those 3-6/4-8" amounts seem low for the NYC metro area IMO, 6-12" is a much more reasonable call right now and I would learn towards the higher end of that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Sref prob. Of >3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 53 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: This has deform band special written all over it. The kind of deal that reminds me off feb 06. Not saying those totals happen but somewhere some 2-3" hour rates are going to crank and add up quick. A general 10" smoothed out looks good with that sweet spot in the 18" range. If this thing were slower you would be looking at yet another one of the greats I have to agree-it will be epic where those bands set up. Hopefully the subsidence next to them won't be too severe. Long Beach had less than 10" in the 2/12/06 storm when Central Park had 27" because of subsidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, husky0101 said: If that were the case, wouldn't their forecast be 6-12 right now? Haven't most models reached a consensus on 6+ inches? There's probably a number of reasons why the forecast is low. Maybe they're using an old model run. Maybe there's an algorithm that keeps snowfall predictions conservative at certain distances from events. Who knows... It's a basic forecast for people who just want a basic forecast. It'll change and be more accurate the closer we get to the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I have to agree-it will be epic where those bands set up. Hopefully the subsidence next to them won't be too severe. Long Beach had less than 10" in the 2/12/06 storm when Central Park had 27" because of subsidence. Bingo. But these are details we have yet to iron out and will be a nowcast. Generally, my experience has been that the best defo snows set up just to the northwest of where mesoscale models put them, which puts southern New York State and northwestern CT in the sweet spot, purely theoretically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 The map I just saw on TWC looked like a generally 4-8" for most here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 In response to the TV forecasts being low.. and fwiw. Goldberg had 5-10 with locally higher amounts.. Reason is, they will never tell you what we see 2 days in advance in fear of busting and being called a bad meteorologist. They know what's coming but can't say on live TV yet, as crazy as it sounds. It's very practical to go easy and ramp it up as it closes in. They will end up right most of the time in the end and look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Don't we have the vendor thread for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, Blizzardo said: In response to the TV forecasts being low.. and fwiw. Goldberg had 5-10 with locally higher amounts.. Reason is, they will never tell you what we see 2 days in advance in fear of busting and being called a bad meteorologist. They know what's coming but can't say on live TV yet, as crazy as it sounds. It's very practical to go easy and ramp it up as it closes in. They will end up right most of the time in the end and look good. Not crazy at all... weather politics are huge for vendor mets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Not crazy at all... weather politics are huge for vendor mets I said that because it may sound crazy to the uneducated. But yea, weather politics...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 TWC expert says fast movement will greatly reduce totals in the NJ/NY areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: TWC expert says fast movement will greatly reduce totals in the NJ/NY areas. Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Advised someone to move their flight to 5:30am from New York from 9:30am. Good idea or bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, mimillman said: Advised someone to move their flight to 5:30am from New York from 9:30am. Good idea or bad? Depends what airline and if it's a connection flight or mainline. Delta and southwest they're likely fine. Anyone else I wouldn't feel too good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 11 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: TWC expert says fast movement will greatly reduce totals in the NJ/NY areas. So we're getting less than the models are showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 11 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: TWC expert says fast movement will greatly reduce totals in the NJ/NY areas. Often times we see models overdo QPF in fast moving systems and then in the final 24-36 hours they start cutting back. That doesn't always work though in this area of the country with coastal storms due to the massive moisture with the Atlantic and the mesoscale banding that can occur. There was a storm in the early 2000s where NE PA and the Hudson Valley saw 12-20 inches of snow and the storm lasted all of about 4-6 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Ch4 Janice Huff said " most accumulations occur between 4 am and 4 pm ,both rush hours a mess " , if this moves as fast as everyone thinks isn't it over most likely around noon ? ps any chance of an earlier start tomorrow night before midnight ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Ch4 Janice Huff said " most accumulations occur between 4 am and 4 pm ,both rush hours a mess " , if this moves as fast as everyone thinks isn't it over most likely around noon ? ps any chance of an earlier start tomorrow night before midnight ? Most models have it winding down by 18z, I'd say we're snowing till around 2-3pm, heaviest between 5am and 11pm imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Depends what airline and if it's a connection flight or mainline. Delta and southwest they're likely fine. Anyone else I wouldn't feel too good It's American. You really think 9:20 was the better shot of taking off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 You think this can produce TSSN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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