brooklynwx99 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Oh my. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 RGEM wants to go sub 970, looks way overdone to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, sferic said: What is keeping this from blizzard criteria? RGEM is beyond its good range, and is wayyyy stronger than any other guidance, including the overamped Nam, I'd wait till tomorrow's 06, or 12z RGEM and I'd expect it to bring those heavier totals north into NYC, and decrease its intensity a tad i mean RGEM is close to 20mb stronger than most guidance lol also RGEM cuts totals for areas like westchester and rockland in half, that otherwise jackpot on euro Nam GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: RGEM is beyond its good range, and is wayyyy stronger than any other guidance, including the overamped Nam, I'd wait till tomorrow's 06, or 12z RGEM and I'd expect it to bring those heavier totals north into NYC, and decrease its intensity a tad I think the RGEM makes perfect sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: RGEM is beyond its good range, and is wayyyy stronger than any other guidance, including the overamped Nam, I'd wait till tomorrow's 06, or 12z RGEM and I'd expect it to bring those heavier totals north into NYC, and decrease its intensity a tad i mean RGEM is close to 20mb stronger than most guidance lol RGEM is likely overdone too and isn't in its prime range yet. I'd weight the Euro most at this point IMO. If tomorrow 12z still has this kind of strength on the RGEM then it's time to really pay attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: I think the RGEM makes perfect sense. explain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I think the RGEM makes perfect sense. explain? why cause it jackpots your area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 RGEM has close to 80mph winds for Eastern Long Island... are we serious? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 GFS out to hour 30. Looks slightly colder so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Downeast ME near Portland had over 20" in spots from a storm this winter that lasted 8 hours, so big totals are certainly possible in a fast mover when snow comes down at 3" or more per hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, Snowlover11 said: explain? why cause it jackpots your area? It doesn't jackpot his area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: explain? why cause it jackpots your area? The jackpots Long Island which is why it makes sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Gfs is colder and CCB over 95 wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: RGEM has close to 80mph winds for Eastern Long Island... are we serious? Lol No it doesnt. That is at 850. Here are 10M winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveTinNY Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 I saw this in Denver, USAF, 1983. 70s the day before and 18" the next. Cray cray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Gfs has 8-10 on the ground by 7am Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, Allsnow said: Gfs is colder and CCB over 95 wow Wow crush job incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: explain? why cause it jackpots your area? Actually the RGEM jackpots Long Island and CNJ and I don't live in either of those areas, but nice try. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 7 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: explain? If you look at the track of the mid-level features, it's in line with the rest of the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Gfs 10-12 for the metro wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 18z GFS is well over an inch LE areawide with a stripe of 1.25"+ from SE PA, up through NNJ, CNJ, NYC and W LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: explain? why cause it jackpots your area? Stop with this please. I'd love for the RGEM to be right since I'd be seeing 3-4" per hour but it's probably overdone when you compare it to the consensus which is a good bit weaker. If it strengthens overnight, it could be onto something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Still much weaker than the NAM or RGEM, not that it matters much in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: Stop with this please. I'd love for the RGEM to be right since I'd be seeing 3-4" per hour but it's probably overdone when you compare it to the consensus which is a good bit weaker. If it strengthens overnight, it could be onto something. If anything, I hope the RGEM is about 50 miles too far Southeast with the heaviest banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 GFS has hangback light snow around the area especially NYC east Thursday afternoon. It might not come to a sudden end on Thursday. But wow, this looks to come in like a wall-flurries to 2"/hr in minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Stop with the bickering, we're all getting snow, and a lot of it. If you're too selfish to accept 10" when someone else might get 15", you should be embarrased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 18z GFS accumulations (Kuchera ratio): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Stop with this please. I'd love for the RGEM to be right since I'd be seeing 3-4" per hour but it's probably overdone when you compare it to the consensus which is a good bit weaker. If it strengthens overnight, it could be onto something. I wasnt picking a fight I just asked that because he didnt explain. all i saw was it could be right, which it damn well could but with no explanation, i kinda guessed on his post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: If anything, I hope the RGEM is about 50 miles too far Southeast with the heaviest banding. It could be a little bit weaker and have a more NW track. It depends on the progressiveness of the trough and track of the upper air energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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