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Coastal Crusher Feb 9th 2017


WeatherFeen2000

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...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH  
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM  
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH  
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...LOCALLY  
HIGHER.  
 
* LOCATIONS...LONG ISLAND...NEW YORK CITY...NORTHEAST NEW  
JERSEY...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY OF NEW YORK...AND SOUTHERN  
CONNECTICUT.  
 
* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.  
 
* TIMING...LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.  
 
* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE TO SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR  
VISIBILITIES. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS POSSIBLE.  
 
* TEMPERATURES...IN THE 30S.  

 

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The only real limiting factor to huge accums IMO is the speed of the system. It could crush at 2-3"/hr but only for 6 hours or so. This is going to haul NE. But in that period it will be insane. 

I would go with 8-14" areawide at this point with locally 18" where bands set up. Amazing to think this is 24 hours after it will be near 60 degrees. Something you would expect in Denver. 

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4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The only real limiting factor to huge accums IMO is the speed of the system. It could crush at 2-3"/hr but only for 6 hours or so. This is going to haul NE. But in that period it will be insane. 

I would go with 8-14" areawide at this point with locally 18" where bands set up. Amazing to think this is 24 hours after it will be near 60 degrees. Something you would expect in Denver. 

Not that it's likely - ore even possible - but maybe something will happen to cause it to stick around a bit longer.  That would be fun.

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2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The only real limiting factor to huge accums IMO is the speed of the system. It could crush at 2-3"/hr but only for 6 hours or so. This is going to haul NE. But in that period it will be insane. 

I would go with 8-14" areawide at this point with locally 18" where bands set up. Amazing to think this is 24 hours after it will be near 60 degrees. Something you would expect in Denver. 

I was wrong with my initial thoughts a few days ago. This is a solid 8-12 inches for the entire metro area and I'm pretty confident some folks will see over a foot of snow easily under the frontogen banding. The snowfall rates and upper level dynamics with this thing are going to be extremely intense. Like you said, this storm is very, very fast moving, like 6 hours for the "main show" then done. The new NAM has it completely over and out of my area in Rockland before noon on Thursday 

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1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

If you take the RGEM combined with the para NAM the 18Z nam was a faster weaker outlier.  Of course we are still out of the RGEM range and the off hour RGEM runs can sometimes be bad and I've been unimpressed with the para NAM overall so far.  I'll be interested to see the 18Z GFS

The Euro seems to be the strongest model so far. It was several MB's deeper than the NAM I believe. 

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Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

To think we still have an entire 24+ hours of model runs to go

Thinking we see the shield expand further south as models more accurately predict surface temps. The speed of change over from rain/snow in coastal regions will be important for accums. Need temps to crash fast 

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