UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 LHV, NYC, LI, central to NNJ jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 4-8" for the area on the NAM early Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Nam drops 1-1.3" of precip all frozen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Wow nam. Mecs for the metro only if it was 24 hrs out More like secs but looks great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Reminds me of the super bowl storm in 2014 we where in the 60's during the game also before that storm. Ended up with 8 of mash potatoes here in Edison. One of my favorite storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Don't rely on snow maps either, 850s are well below 0, and 2mt are in 20s... over 1" LE falls for everyone, Nam is 8-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Don't rely on snow maps either, 850s are well below 0, and 2mt are in 20s... over 1" LE falls for everyone, Nam is 8-10" The kuchera map I posted factors in sounding etc. it's 8-10 for the metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just now, Allsnow said: The kuchera map I posted factors in sounding etc. it's 8-10 for the metro Never saw it cause it was on prev page, I was mostly referring to anyone looking at Wxbell or tidbits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Well, you do have to sniff the rain to get the heaviest snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Guess we just got NAM'd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mriceyman Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 1 minute ago, NortheastPAWx said: Well, you do have to sniff the rain to get the heaviest snow... Ya and if that holds i will be very close in monmouth. These type storms usually we are ok with the rain line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 NAM goes nuts, perfect scenario for us....6-12"...joining the party Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 This kind of snow would be very wet with temps near freezing. Could definitely bring some trees down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 9 minutes ago, jm1220 said: This kind of snow would be very wet with temps near freezing. Could definitely bring some trees down. I'd say near coast yea. Up here 850s are close to -10 and 2mt would be around 25... should be fluff here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 GFS comin out now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 GFS is stronger, further north than 06 so far, 500 more amped as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 GFS looks like Nam, slightly weaker and warmer at 2mt And a bit faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 GFS is a little faster with the storm. I would think we need it to wait a little like the NAM has so that cold air has longer to seep southeast. GFS still looks like it benefits the immediate northern suburbs more than the coast-some of that would be slop and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 GFS is close to 8-10" for burbs....1"LE all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: GFS is close to 8-10" for burbs....1"LE all snow Negative it's .6-.7 along 95 and .-4-.5 by you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: GFS is close to 8-10" for burbs....1"LE all snow 3-6 for the area north of 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 GFS is an elevation storm. Places like Vernon and Hewitt would get buried while the Valley's and coastal plain would be lucky to get more than 3 of slop" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 North of 78 it's 5-7" and I mean literally north per this gfs run city and coast could have precip issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Below are the PivotalWx numbers from the GFS (Kuchera ratio): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just now, donsutherland1 said: Below are the PivotalWx numbers from the GFS (Kuchera ratio): Only snowmaps that should be allowed the tidbits are a 10-1 and count sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, swamplover56 said: North of 78 it's 5-7" and I mean literally north per this gfs run city and coast could have precip issues If the storm comes in too fast like the GFS has, the cold air will be too late and a lot of what falls near the coast will be nonaccumulating slop or rain. The storm is also weaker on the GFS so there is less dynamic to bring down the cold air. The NAM is about a perfect scenario for this-it really starts to strengthen, it holds back a little so the cold air has time to arrive, and the intensity means a fast accumulating snow for 6 hours or so. This will be a thump-and-go no matter what, it's on a quick moving frontal boundary and no blocking to slow it down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Ggem has nothing, rain showers for mid Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Stronger blocking could lead to a somewhat slower progression of the storm. Currently the AO is -1.051, its lowest figure of the winter and lowest since November 5, 2016 when it was -2.533. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 The 925mb warm layer shifts Southeast of NYC between 03 and 04z. So roughly half the precip in the city falls with 925mb above freezing. The surface on the other hand remains above freezing for a few more hours. Verbatim for the coast the GFS is rain to sleet to a few inches of sloppy snow early Thursday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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