nyblizz44 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, ag3 said: Forky completely nailed this threat. Was onto it when models had nothing. Models has Zilch till Sunday I believe. would be VERY interested to hear what made Forly pay attention early ( though I am not surprised at all by that. his cynicism keeps him sharp in a field where you need to maintain distance and see the hidden) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 The trend is pretty obvious on the 500mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 What's the timing of this storm? Around what time does it start/end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, TriPol said: What's the timing of this storm? Around what time does it start/end? Start about 1am tomorrow night , end about 1pm Thu afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 11 minutes ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said: You like colts neck shore areas for this? Should be fairly wicked there, but the low doesn't really crank until it's SE of Long Island, so blizzard conditions would be more likely in eastern Suffolk and coastal New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Breaking the weekend rule with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 13 minutes ago, TriPol said: What's the timing of this storm? Around what time does it start/end? Starts 1:00AM Thursday morning, ends 1:00PM Thursday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Albany point and click, has me as rain wed night then Snow after 3am lmao.... I want whatever drugs they're on, cause they're clueless for my area, every storm... they need to give Ulster county to BMG, or upton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Albany point and click, has me as rain wed night then Snow after 3am lmao.... I want whatever drugs they're on, cause they're clueless for my area, every storm... they need to give Ulster county to BMG, or upton I travel to the area frequently and follow the weather forecasts in adjacent parts of Sullivan (Bing) and Ulster (Albany). This may not apply to the overall CWAs, but my perception is that ALB handles that part of the Catskill region better than BGM. No science or sampling; just perception. They both do a decent job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 15Z SREF is a thing of beauty. Looks very much like the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 15Z SREF is a thing of beauty. Looks very much like the Euro. POIDH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 15Z SREF is a thing of beauty. Looks very much like the Euro. Mine won't load Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 11 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: I travel to the area frequently and follow the weather forecasts in adjacent parts of Sullivan (Bing) and Ulster (Albany). This may not apply to the overall CWAs, but my perception is that ALB handles that part of the Catskill region better than BGM. No science or sampling; just perception. They both do a decent job. For my county specifically, since its so large... "lat" wise...I get overlooked, for example My county is often the cutoff line on coastals lately, so I've seen 6" of snow and not even had a WWA posted... I have to use uptons forecast for Orange County to get remotely accurate to my locale can't think of a storm yet where Albany has given any attention to its southern coverage area and been accurate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Sref Plumes are up to 6"-12" areawide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 0.76" LE at KLGA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 30 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Starts 1:00AM Thursday morning, ends 1:00PM Thursday afternoon Euro is closer to 06z and 12z for the real stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Wxbell blows... 09z isn't even loaded yet for srefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, Morris said: 0.76" LE at KLGA. How much LE KJFK ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Those above 500 mb plots of the GFS, really show a lot of energy being sucked into this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, sferic said: How much LE KJFK ? 0.77" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Quick question. Why would ratios be good if it's starting as rain? Wouldn't that portend a heavy wet snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, yhbrooklyn said: Quick question. Why would ratios be good if it's starting as rain? Wouldn't that portend a heavy wet snow? Who in here said this was starting as rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, yhbrooklyn said: Quick question. Why would ratios be good if it's starting as rain? Wouldn't that portend a heavy wet snow? Ratios are determined by the lift and temperature in the snow growth layer. You want it to be -12 to -18C for the best ratios. I agree that the initial snow will be wet because we're cooling down and the ground will be warm. But by the end it looks like it turns into a fluffy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, yhbrooklyn said: Quick question. Why would ratios be good if it's starting as rain? Wouldn't that portend a heavy wet snow? Models are developing a strong, mature CCB. Ratios are usually 15 to 1 or greater in the heaviest of the banding under the CCB. Coast likely starts as rain or a slush/mix but makes up for it with dynamics closer to the center of low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Who in here said this was starting as rain? I guess that must have changed. Initially this was progged to start as rain. Just now, jm1220 said: Ratios are determined by the lift and temperature in the snow growth layer. You want it to be -12 to -18C for the best ratios. I agree that the initial snow will be wet because we're cooling down and the ground will be warm. But by the end it looks like it turns into a fluffy snow. Ah, ok. Thanks, jm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, yhbrooklyn said: I guess that must have changed. Initially this was progged to start as rain. Ah, ok. Thanks, jm. No you're correct, it may start as rain or a mix especially in the city and at the coast Rain before 1am, then rain and snow between 1am and 4am, then snow after 4am. Low around 33. Wind chill values between 25 and 30. Northwest wind 7 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 I see two clusters on the15z SREF with the mean at 6.43 for NYC. First cluster looks like 0-4, second cluster 5.5-13.72. Two Megan bombs at 17.74 and 19.45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: No you're correct, it may start as rain or a mix especially in the city and at the coast Rain before 1am, then rain and snow between 1am and 4am, then snow after 4am. Low around 33. Wind chill values between 25 and 30. Northwest wind 7 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. No guidance that's come out today so far indicates any rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: No guidance that's come out today so far indicates any rain. http://www.accuweather.com/en/videos/accuweather-experts/record-warmth-to-a-snowstorm/2430839568001 bernie rayno is worried it may start as rain as of his latest video, even with the 12z euro out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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