PB GFI Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The UKMET looks like around 8 for NYC with up to 12 on Long Island This looks like a solid 6 to 12 area wide with up to 18 into New England . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, PB GFI said: This looks like a solid 6 to 12 area wide up to 18 into New England . ha ha ha was waiting for you to chime in! Welcome back my man! Monmouth looks solid too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 12z GEFS mean looks like the OP. JP areas are the higher elevations of NW NJ and SE NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, JERSEYSNOWROB said: ha ha ha was waiting for you to chime in! Welcome back my man! Monmouth looks solid too! If the RGEM and UKIE are right , then we kill it too . A lot of these snow maps will be useless here . The snow growth out of some these soundings will allow some away from the coast to go 15 to 1 . ( some are 2 to 3 inches per hour ) . There is a ton of upward motion here so ratio`s will be better . Once the center gets off A/C even M/C will go right over " if " it starts as sleet and rain . This looks likes 9 plus hours of very heavy snow . There should be a lot of 12 inch amounts popping up just N of us . A true MECS . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 UKMET is 26-29MM of precip for NYC. MAJOR HIT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 How long a duration event can this be? 6 hours? 12 hours? Will there be a strong windfield with this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, PB GFI said: If the RGEM and UKIE are right , then we kill it too . A lot of these snow maps will be useless here . The snow growth out of some these soundings will allow some away from the coast to go 15 to 1 . There is a ton of upward motion here so ratio`s will be better . Once the center gets off A/C even M/C will go right over " if " it starts as sleet and rain . This looks likes 9 plus hours of very heavy snow . There should be a lot of 12 inch amounts pop up . A true MECS . Julian posted sounding in the NW thread... absolute perfect snow growth up here, we very well may only see .5-.75 LE, but could easily get a foot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 NYC is about 25MM of snow on the 12z UKMET or ~1"LE. So figure 8-12" for NYC this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Julian posted sounding in the NW thread... absolute perfect snow growth up here, we very well may only see .5-.75 LE, but could easily get a foot Agree . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, sferic said: How long a duration event can this be? 6 hours? 12 hours? Will there be a strong windfield with this? 8-10 hour event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Hate doing this here, as we are 30+ hours out, but due to having a 5 month old that my wife drives to her parents, 30 miles away (Chester to Montville/Caldwell), before she heads to work, what are we thinking in terms of start time? 4-5 am, with increased intensity by 7-8am? Obviously subject to change, but as the models are currently depicting. Cheers gents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, ag3 said: UKMET is 26-29MM of precip for NYC. MAJOR HIT. Major hit for the coast. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Keep it right there UKIE plz thnx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Paying attention to nuances in accumulation differences right now is a fool's errand. Don't lose the forest for the trees. And IMO N&W folks needn't worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Shades of April 1982? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, danstorm said: Paying attention to nuances in accumulation differences right now is a fool's errand. Don't lose the forest for the trees. And IMO N&W folks needn't worry. Like I said before Ratio will save us if the Nam isn't correct, 15:1 or greater looks highly likely up here, soundings show near perfect snow growth, don't think I've seen much better as of late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Gefs, don't focus on exact amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said: Hate doing this here, as we are 30+ hours out, but due to having a 5 month old that my wife drives to her parents, 30 miles away (Chester to Montville/Caldwell), before she heads to work, what are we thinking in terms of start time? 4-5 am, with increased intensity by 7-8am? Obviously subject to change, but as the models are currently depicting. Cheers gents. The GFS has like 8" on the ground already by 7am so it looks like the heaviest may be 4am-noon but some models are slower and have the bulk after sunrise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 10 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Major hit for the coast. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Rjay said: Does that include today's rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, psv88 said: Does that include today's rain? No. Total qpf starting from 0z Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, Rjay said: No .6 all the way up to Albany, major shift from previous run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Like I said before Ratio will save us if the Nam isn't correct, 15:1 or greater looks highly likely up here, soundings show near perfect snow growth, don't think I've seen much better as of late Your post seriously gives me hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West of Town Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: .6 all the way up to Albany, major shift from previous run When are realistic totals going to be available? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, North and West of Town said: When are realistic totals going to be available? Friday morning lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West of Town Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Friday morning lol Haha! +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 My srefs won't load on Wxbell.... wtf... anyone have plumes for NYC, and maybe SWF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 I'm pretty excited to be up here...let's make this happen!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: My srefs won't load on Wxbell.... wtf... anyone have plumes for NYC, and maybe SWF? I'm having trouble loading15z only up to 9z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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