NJwx85 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, mimillman said: 12z CMC caves. Epic fail for the candians this go around. It's still well SE of the GFS and the NAM. It looks like the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It's still well SE of the GFS and the NAM. It looks like the Euro. In terms of lp placement or precip? The Euro showed a general 5-8" for the entire area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It's still well SE of the GFS and the NAM. It looks like the Euro. The gfs is still se of the nam. It's just deeper with the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, snywx said: In terms of lp placement or precip? The Euro showed a general 5-8" for the entire area. Both. Verbatim it's 2-4 for u. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It's still well SE of the GFS and the NAM. It looks like the Euro. Went from flurries in NYC on the 00z to 6"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Both. Verbatim it's 2-4 for u. 0z Euro using the Kuchera method showed 5-6" up this way. Regardless good trends for those NW of the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Hey Fellas, sorry for the quick off model discussion post......I'm very well familiar with model watching and how the GFS/NAM/EURO plays out within 48 hours here in the southeast, but not familiar with any of the quirks when it comes to forecasting in the NYC metro and we're flying in to LaGuardia early Thursday afternoon. Does this look like a major travel headache (i.e. airport shutdowns/delays) or should we stick to our travel plans? I realize that 4 - 8 inches may be a safe bet up there, but never been during a winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: It's further southeast then gfs. Colder. Huge hit for Phl and snj It's still adjusting to the northern models. Likely not done trending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Squid1225 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Time to start taking the nam seriously.. this model has been lights out this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, audioguy3107 said: Hey Fellas, sorry for the quick off model discussion post......I'm very well familiar with model watching and how the GFS/NAM/EURO plays out within 48 hours here in the southeast, but not familiar with any of the quirks when it comes to forecasting in the NYC metro and we're flying in to LaGuardia early Thursday afternoon. Does this look like a major travel headache (i.e. airport shutdowns/delays) or should we stick to our travel plans? I realize that 4 - 8 inches may be a safe bet up there, but never been during a winter storm. I would reschedule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Reading the CMC verbatim, yes, it's a NYC-south special. But the difference between this run and its previous ones is massive. Another jump north on the next run would hardly be unexpected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, audioguy3107 said: Hey Fellas, sorry for the quick off model discussion post......I'm very well familiar with model watching and how the GFS/NAM/EURO plays out within 48 hours here in the southeast, but not familiar with any of the quirks when it comes to forecasting in the NYC metro and we're flying in to LaGuardia early Thursday afternoon. Does this look like a major travel headache (i.e. airport shutdowns/delays) or should we stick to our travel plans? I realize that 4 - 8 inches may be a safe bet up there, but never been during a winter storm. LaGuardia airport does not handle snow well at all, there will be many cancellations for sure. I assume you are flying Delta based on your location? I know they issue travel waivers, they may not do so til later today but you may be advised to try and get in on the first flight or two of the day if possible as conditions may not be that bad yet at that point or maybe take one that gets in 3-4 hours later in the evening when the event is over. I think anything arriving between 9-2 right now is potentially risky for cancellation. LGA also has short runways so diversions often happen to EWR or JFK during snow events when pilots deem braking action is not safe to land. JFK may be an option for you too if your airline issues a travel waiver where you can change your arrival to JFK. They handle snow much better than LGA does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 7 minutes ago, audioguy3107 said: Hey Fellas, sorry for the quick off model discussion post......I'm very well familiar with model watching and how the GFS/NAM/EURO plays out within 48 hours here in the southeast, but not familiar with any of the quirks when it comes to forecasting in the NYC metro and we're flying in to LaGuardia early Thursday afternoon. Does this look like a major travel headache (i.e. airport shutdowns/delays) or should we stick to our travel plans? I realize that 4 - 8 inches may be a safe bet up there, but never been during a winter storm. Early afternoon the airport might still be ok but travel on the ground once you're here could be sluggish at best. edit; I'd defer to the info in the post above mine SG69 is a much better source of info than me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, RDRY said: Reading the CMC verbatim, yes, it's a NYC-south special. But the difference between this run and its previous ones is massive. Another jump north on the next run would hardly be unexpected. Yeah its likely not done 'trending' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, Squid1225 said: Time to start taking the nam seriously.. this model has been lights out this year! The NAM has been shifting SE slightly. It might be closer to right but it's probably still too amped and wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Yeah its likely not done 'trending' The Canadian went from no storm to a 994 well offshore to a 973 just east of the benchmark on its last three runs. That's quite the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, jm1220 said: It's still adjusting to the northern models. Likely not done trending. Not to mention it closes off at h5 (h60). The 500MB evolution went from the weakest to by far the strongest. Take a look at h54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 From a purely mathematical perspective, the "trend" in the CMC is undefined. 6 inches/0 inches. Even the marginal cm would yield boundless trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 CMC is 6-7 inches for the city. 8-9 inches for central and south Jersey. 3-5 mostly N&W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 15 minutes ago, jm1220 said: It's still adjusting to the northern models. Likely not done trending. I'm not worried about temps. Gfs is horrible with surface temp and every other model is getting colder. Once that northern stream energy dives in precipitation will explode Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 This storm has a beginning of wet snow (maybe even a little rain) gradually transitioning to a relatively high ratio snow written all over it. Maybe 8-10 ratios for first 30%-40% of storm, then 12 - 15:1 once in the cold deform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 12z UKmet @ hr48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, snywx said: 12z UKmet @ hr48 Wow what a beast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said: This storm has a beginning of wet snow (maybe even a little rain) gradually transitioning to a relatively high ratio snow written all over it. Maybe 8-10 ratios for first 30%-40% of storm, then 12 - 15:1 once in the cold deform. the Lindsay storm in 1969 started as wet snow and by nightfall the snow was powdery... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 12z UKMET is a huge hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 The UKMET looks like around 8 for NYC with up to 12 on Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Let's see... last 24+ hours the GFS has wobbled 6 times... between northern solution and southern hit solution ggem is a joke and never even had a storm till 40 min ago euro as been OTS or south until yesterday ukie looks like it's coming in tucked to coast, and that was south then there's the nam..... unwavered... again... how many times are we gonna ignore the nams consistency and note it's "biased" instead... and get burned badly.... I know there's a lot of seasoned posters that tossed the nams sleet storm QPF... it was spot on The NAM has been ticking SE over the last few runs. It might be closer to right in the end but I'll still wager on it being overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The UKMET looks like around 8 for NYC with up to 12 on Long Island Looks like more than an inch of liquid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Both hi res nams crush everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The NAM has been ticking SE over the last few runs. It might be closer to right in the end but I'll still wager on it being overdone. I was making more of a case for intensity... yesterday everyone was saying the nams overdone, everything is caving to a bomb off the coast, not a 998mb fast slider that drops a quick 3-5" as advertised by GFS/euro just 24 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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