snywx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 12z GFS... Moving toward the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 10 inches for the city through 54. Still snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 12 minutes ago, mimillman said: Upton 10am AFD likes a blend of the Euro and the SREF. They believe the GFS is too progressive and the NAM too amped/wet. They are thinking generally 4-6" with heaviest amounts of 6-8 on Long Island and southern CT. Would post but am mobile right now: That language is from their 4 am update. They rarely update the long-range AFD outside of the regular 4 am and 4 pm major updates. You can see what parts were updated by clicking on "highlight changed discussion" - the changed parts are in red. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 10 inches for the entire metro on the 12z gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 The NAM might not be out to lunch with its crazy inland band and SE subsidence zone closer to the city if the GFS is right. Also hopefully that doesn't come any further north because the city and coast might lose more to mixing as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 7, 2017 Author Share Posted February 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Gfs wow Blizzard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Models will go back and forth with exact placement of defo band. I think this merits watches posted for the whole area though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Too bad the GFS has been all over the place. Need to see this a couple runs in a row Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Winter Storm Watches are warranted for the majority of the NYC region. And they should happen before the 5pm news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: Blizzard! Come on, really?? Lock and load the GFS and it's a solid snow storm that puts everyone above normal for the season the good ole days continue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, ag3 said: Winter Storm Watches are warranted for the majority of the NYC region. And they should happen before the 5pm news. Most likely with the afternoon updates between 3 & 4, unless the euro does something funky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 7, 2017 Author Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Too bad the GFS has been all over the place. Need to see this a couple runs in a row Dude you got nam rgem euro and GFS now what are you saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The NAM might not be out to lunch with its crazy inland band and SE subsidence zone closer to the city if the GFS is right. Also hopefully that doesn't come any further north because the city and coast might lose more to mixing as well. Yea, all models show QPF higher north of the city, with ratios someone will get 12+, im lookin at New Milford, NJ for this one, they usually jackpot with these types of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, WeatherFeen2000 said: Dude you got nam rgem euro and GFS now what are you saying i'm saying I don't trust the gfs, regardless of what it shows til it locks in to some type of solution. at 18z it could cut totals in half again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, psv88 said: Yea, all models show QPF higher north of the city, with ratios someone will get 12+, im lookin at New Milford, NJ for this one, they usually jackpot with these types of storms. West not New, there is a new but they don't jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, Stormlover74 said: West not New, there is a new but they don't jackpot My bad, you are right, West Milford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, psv88 said: Yea, all models show QPF higher north of the city, with ratios someone will get 12+, im lookin at New Milford, NJ for this one, they usually jackpot with these types of storms. 2/5/01 jackpot zone might not be a bad guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 The 12z GFS looks just like the 06z PARA GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: 2/5/01 jackpot zone might not be a bad guess. But the coast should do a lot better than that storm since there was a lot wasted to rain or non accumulating snow. Might be 2 jackpot areas. Central Jersey Coast/LI and then 287 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 06z JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 The RGEM has had the hot hand lately, so i would stick with its snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 12 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: Dude you got nam rgem euro and GFS now what are you saying Take it easy and please for the love of God leave it to the more seasoned guys to to PBP. We don't need all the bickering clogging this thread like last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 12z CMC caves. Epic fail for the candians this go around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 20 minutes ago, snywx said: 12z GFS... Moving toward the NAM The gfs track is no where near the nam. It's wetter because the storm is deeper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: But the coast should do a lot better than that storm since there was a lot wasted to rain or non accumulating snow. Might be 2 jackpot areas. Central Jersey Coast/LI and then 287 corridor Hopefully the GFS was too warm. Looks like a decent amount of liquid is wasted right on the shore to non-snow. The NAM has a colder profile. Also there will be an area SE of the main snow band that gets ripped off if the band gets too intense. Just things to watch out for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, mimillman said: 12z CMC caves. Epic fail for the candians this go around. Only out to hour 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, jm1220 said: Hopefully the GFS was too warm. Looks like a decent amount of liquid is wasted right on the shore to non-snow. The NAM has a colder profile. Also there will be an area SE of the main snow band that gets ripped off if the band gets too intense. Just things to watch out for. Gfs surface temps are usually horrible. The euro is much colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 CMC just shifted big time. Oh Canada... 12z 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, BlizzardNYC said: Only out to hour 18 It's further southeast then gfs. Colder. Huge hit for Phl and snj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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