NEG NAO Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: I rarely look at the surface, but thanks. Is there anything about my assessment that you disagree with? yea that you are bailing after one bad run and the GEM not on board - wait for the Euro and then tomorrows runs - pattern and 500mb support a storm plus NAM is now within its range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 The RGEM at 48 looked between the NAM and GFS. It definitely didn't appear as fast as the GFS but it didn't appear as slow as the NAM. It sure was way more amped than the GGEM which provably means the GGEM is still too far south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 CMC is stronger by quite a bit. It's still a whiff, but it's not like 12z at all. The trough is more amplified. 00z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 18z para (for S&Gs) is a big hit. Looks like a colder version of the 00z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 21 minutes ago, Morris said: This thread's posts makes me go Same. I wasnt around tonight and I'm not cleaning this crap up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 If anything, all of the variation in the models is a sign that the handling of the shortwave in the Pacific has been inconsistent. There will definitely be large differences until the energy comes onshore. I'd say that things start becoming clearer once the system in front moves out. Until then, don't expect a clear picture. Anything from the NAM & para GFS to the CMC is on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 02/03/14 and 03/06/03 are the top 2 analogs on CIPS at 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: 02/03/14 and 03/06/03 are the top 2 analogs on CIPS at 48 hours This 3/6/03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: 02/03/14 and 03/06/03 are the top 2 analogs on CIPS at 48 hours Lol at how different those were. 2/3/14 was pretty good here in northern MD. About 7" of heavy wet snow. The other I don't think was even close to anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keno19 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 and the canadian model is all banged up hehe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Might belong in the vendor thread but Bernie Rayno believes the models will struggle with this until inside of 48 hours. Cited negative trough as reason for closer to the coast track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 The UKMET looks like an absolute bomb. Don't have temps yet but if it was all snow it looks like around 4-5 inches near NYC as of 72 hours. E LI is much more with a sharp cutoff west of nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The UKMET looks like an absolute bomb. Don't have temps yet but if it was all snow it looks like around 4-5 inches near NYC as of 72 hours. E LI is much more with a sharp cutoff west of nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The UKMET looks like an absolute bomb. Don't have temps yet but if it was all snow it looks like around 4-5 inches near NYC as of 72 hours. E LI is much more with a sharp cutoff west of nyc Which means that Euro will be a mix of NAM and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Euro is amped up. Goes from 1003 in KY to 979 east of the Cape. It's NAM/para GFS/UKMET/ECM vs. CMC/GFS. I'm taking the side with the Euro and UKMET every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Looks like a general 4-8" around the area on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 6z NAM.. Crush job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 7, 2017 Author Share Posted February 7, 2017 Absolute crush job! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Mt Holly nws morning afd is honking a heavy snowfall north of i 78 late Wednesday night into Thursday. Inch an hour snows likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 7, 2017 Author Share Posted February 7, 2017 GFS 6z is no nam but for sure a great hit. Looks great for the whole entire forum! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 3 hours ago, dmillz25 said: Looks like a general 4-8" around the area on the Euro Euro is way closer to the Nam solution than the GFS, just not as juicy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Euro and Nam are a nice snowstorm for the area Gfs is also getting on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 428 AM EST TUE FEB 7 2017 DEZ001-MDZ008-012-NJZ010-012>022-025>027-PAZ060-070-071-101>104-106- 080930- NEW CASTLE-CECIL-KENT MD-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH- EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN- NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-COASTAL ATLANTIC- COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-BERKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA- WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY- EASTERN MONTGOMERY-LOWER BUCKS- 428 AM EST TUE FEB 7 2017 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL CAUSING TRAVEL DELAYS THURSDAY MORNING...ROUGHLY 5 AM TO 5 PM. PRESENTLY, IT APPEARS AS THOUGH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL FAVOR THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE BUT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVIER AMOUNTS. CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE SNOW TOTAL FORECAST IS BELOW AVERAGE, EXCEPT TO SAY SLIPPERY TRAVEL IS LIKELY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF PLOWABLE AMOUNTS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Euro is way closer to the Nam solution than the GFS, just not as juicy... How is the Euro north and west of the cities? Sharp cutoff or generous? Sent from my HTC6535LVW using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... **Potential for the heaviest snowfall of the season so far for the I95 and I78 corridors 05z-21z Thursday* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Boston is gonna get crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 I think 4-8" is a good call for the NYC metro area right now, have to see what the 12z runs bring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 13 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: I think 4-8" is a good call for the NYC metro area right now, have to see what the 12z runs bring. I would maybe call it 4-7", but generally I agree. I'm just nit picky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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