WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 8, 2017 Author Share Posted February 8, 2017 this is my forecast. 12 inches for Manhattan, Bronx 14 inches, Brooklyn 14, Staten Island 11...some spots in southern Queens county could get up to 18 inches in my opinion. someone will get clobbered with 20 inches, possibly Port Jefferson, Long Island and or northeastern NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 On 2/8/2017 at 4:37 PM, WeatherFeen2000 said: this is my forecast. 12 inches for Manhattan, some spots in southern queens county could get up to 18 inches in my opinion. someone will get clobbered with 20 inches, possibly port jefferson and or northeastern NJFor once I think you may not be that far off. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 On 2/8/2017 at 4:37 PM, WeatherFeen2000 said: this is my forecast. 12 inches for Manhattan, Bronx 14 inches, Brooklyn 14, Staten Island 11...some spots in southern Queens county could get up to 18 inches in my opinion. someone will get clobbered with 20 inches, possibly Port Jefferson, Long Island and or northeastern NJ Expand Please stop with wishcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 GGEM and UKIE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 On 2/8/2017 at 4:21 PM, NJwx85 said: Hopefully it stays to your South Expand Yep, that's my biggest fear. I know we'll be starting as rain down here. The question is how long will it take to change over. If that much rain eats into my accums, I doubt much sticks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 On 2/8/2017 at 4:47 PM, weatherfreeeeak said: GGEM and UKIE? Expand UKMET may now be best of the bunch for NYC. Eyeballing it close to 27mm it appears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 On 2/8/2017 at 4:47 PM, weatherfreeeeak said: GGEM and UKIE? Expand UKIE track is beautiful for the entire area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 On 2/8/2017 at 4:47 PM, weatherfreeeeak said: GGEM and UKIE? Expand GGEM looked much like the RGEM to me. UK I don't think is out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 On 2/8/2017 at 4:47 PM, weatherfreeeeak said: GGEM and UKIE? Expand I don't have maps, But UKIE is a big crusher! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 I just don't think anyone will know in detail how the storm plays out until it's over. There will likely be 3 inch per hour bands next to 1 inch per hour bands all within 30 miles. It's such a dynamic system... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 This is a website that i use to guide the global models http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 On 2/8/2017 at 4:44 PM, Metsfan said: Please stop with wishcasting. Expand He might be right based off the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 On 2/8/2017 at 4:50 PM, Snow88 said: He might be right based off the models Expand see previous post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Is this a potential NYC School closer? By 5AM there should be a few inches on the ground with the worst conditions imminent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Back to my earlier point, I would think the low not closing off would enhance the swath of snow, as oppose to keeping it so well confined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 On 2/8/2017 at 4:53 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Back to my earlier point, I would think the low not closing off would enhance the swath of snow, as oppose to keeping it so well confined Expand The low closing off enhances moisture transport west. You want the upper air lows to start closing off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 On 2/8/2017 at 4:37 PM, jm1220 said: That night was one of the best snow events I've seen here by far. My total was about 16" IIRC but 13 of it fell in 4 hours with the upper air low. It was literally just a wall of white. This coming event might give that one a good run if the RGEM is right. Expand I remember driving on 287 in Edison with my then 16 year old son and it was simply a wall of sleet and then we heard the thunder multiple times - THUNDERSLEET!! While the road was getting a bit icy, we just kept driving for an extra 15-20 min, just to be out in it (wasn't much traffic). It changed to snow as we got home and ripped for hours - got about 12" in 7 hours and 18" overall (5" from part one earlier in the day). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 On 2/8/2017 at 4:00 PM, donsutherland1 said: Below is a list of NYC's 4" or greater snowfalls following days with high temperatures of 50° or above. As of 11 am, NYC has a high temperature of 55°. LGA and JFK have highs of 59° and 58° respectively. Expand Must've been quite the post-Christmas shock in 1933 - from springlike to major snowstorm to well below zero. March 1970 was the white Easter, 11" of mid-20s powder thru the middle of the day in NNJ. My future wife (we were dating at the time) said the sunrise service at Wanaque Reservoir was brutally cold, cloudy with a raw east wind a couple hours before the flakes arrived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 On 2/8/2017 at 4:53 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Back to my earlier point, I would junk the low not closing off would enhance the swath of snow, as oppose to keeping it so well confined Expand The low will not close off. This is bc of the lack of a greenland block. There is a transient block, hence the storm is progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 The UKIE goes from 991 to 973 in 12 hours BOMB . Close to 30 MM NYC out to LI , This may drop a foot in just 6 hours along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 On 2/8/2017 at 4:52 PM, sferic said: Is this a potential NYC School closer? By 5AM there should be a few inches on the ground with the worst conditions imminent. Expand Given the timing and intensity of the snow, it is probably more likely than not that NYC's schools will be closed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 UKIE total accum map / will make everyone happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 On 2/8/2017 at 5:00 PM, PB GFI said: The UKIE goes from 991 to 973 in 12 hours BOMB . Close to 30 MM NYC out to LI , This may drop a foot in just 6 hours along the coast. Expand It's not official until the Regional German model says so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 UKIE is 11 or 12 inches for NYC without factoring in ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 On 2/8/2017 at 5:05 PM, jm1220 said: It's not official until the Regional German model says so. Expand LOL , well here you go . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 On 2/8/2017 at 5:08 PM, PB GFI said: LOL , well here you go . Expand Is that 3 inches LE just of the south shore of LI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 On 2/8/2017 at 5:02 PM, donsutherland1 said: Given the timing and intensity of the snow, it is probably more likely than not that NYC's schools will be closed. Expand This is the best possible timing for a closure...snow starts at 2-3am, gets heavy by 5am (when the decision is usually made), and continues through the morning commute, making roads impassable for commute and paralyzing trains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 The whole area should have a foot or more on the UKMET. NYC and LI are over 30mm (about 1.25" liquid), north and west are 25-30mm. North of I-84 is 20-25mm. From 7am-1pm an inch of liquid falls from NYC east. Should be whiteout conditions in that period areawide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 On 2/8/2017 at 5:16 PM, nzucker said: This is the best possible timing for a closure...snow starts at 2-3am, gets heavy by 5am (when the decision is usually made), and continues through the morning commute, making roads impassable for commute and paralyzing trains. Expand My school I know has a number of teachers who are from upstate, out of state, LI, further away areas of NYC...if they do hold school I can safely say teacher attendance would be low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 On 2/8/2017 at 5:15 PM, sferic said: Is that 3 inches LE just of the south shore of LI? Expand 40 mm 1.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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