weatherpruf Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 On 2/7/2017 at 2:55 PM, Snow88 said: Its still a 6-10 inch storm for the NYC area on the Nam Expand I'm a bit south of you Ant, across from SI Tottenville area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 On 2/7/2017 at 2:50 PM, forkyfork said: the nam shows a foot+ where the euro and gfs show 2-4. come on Expand What's your thinking right now for the metro, forky? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 4km has less for the city. 3km has even more. 3km is 7-9 inches for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 RGEM on black and white maps is way faster than 12Z NAM at 48. By 48 it already has a 989mb low east of Ocean County and it appears in the next 6-8 hours after the Metro would get pounded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 On 2/7/2017 at 3:06 PM, SnowGoose69 said: RGEM on black and white maps is way faster than 12Z NAM at 48. By 48 it already has a 989mb low east of Ocean County and it appears in the next 6-8 hours after the Metro would get pounded. Expand RGEM @ hr46.. Ill take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Rgem at hour 48 is a complete crush job for NYC, ENJ, SWCT and LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 On 2/7/2017 at 3:06 PM, SnowGoose69 said: RGEM on black and white maps is way faster than 12Z NAM at 48. By 48 it already has a 989mb low east of Ocean County and it appears in the next 6-8 hours after the Metro would get pounded. Expand Hour 48 is a complete crush job for coast: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 WSW incoming for everyone. T-shirts and shovels in the same 24 hour period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 On 2/7/2017 at 3:12 PM, ag3 said: Hour 48 is a complete crush job for coast: Expand That said the RGEM looks more like the other models vs the NAM with the heaviest focused on the coast. NAM is likely overdone with the band well inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 On 2/7/2017 at 3:17 PM, jm1220 said: That said the RGEM looks more like the other models vs the NAM with the heaviest focused on the coast. NAM is likely overdone with the band well inland. Expand Verbatim, it has 4" of snow through hour 48 with super heavy banding overhead at that hour. Likely a 10" run for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 On 2/7/2017 at 3:14 PM, Ericjcrash said: WSW incoming for everyone. T-shirts and shovels in the same 24 hour period. Expand Upton's very conservative. Will issue only for city on east and CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 On 2/7/2017 at 3:19 PM, Stormlover74 said: Upton's very conservative. Will issue only for city on east and CT Expand Northwest of the city there's still a lot of uncertainty, especially well NW towards Sussex, Orange, Putnam etc. The SE models could only give them advisory amounts vs being destroyed on the NAM. I think the whole area should have a watch though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 On 2/7/2017 at 3:23 PM, jm1220 said: Northwest of the city there's still a lot of uncertainty, especially well NW towards Sussex, Orange, Putnam etc. The SE models could only give them advisory amounts vs being destroyed on the NAM. I think the whole area should have a watch though. Expand if the midday models hold suit and potential is high for 6"+ I would agree. Can always change to advisory tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 The watches should go up this afternoon being that this will be a high impact event, hitting during rush hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 On 2/7/2017 at 2:48 PM, forkyfork said: the nam is still way NW of all the other models and probably wrong Expand Heard the same thing last year for 2 -3 days before the blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 On 2/7/2017 at 3:31 PM, wkd said: Heard the same thing last year for 2 -3 days before the blizzard. Expand The NAM aloft looked less impressive than before and the evolution shifted SE a little over the last few runs. It also notoriously overdoes banding features like these. Not saying it's caving completely but maybe it's just moving into consensus with other models which are becoming more impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Upton 10am AFD likes a blend of the Euro and the SREF. They believe the GFS is too progressive and the NAM too amped/wet. They are thinking generally 4-6" with heaviest amounts of 6-8 on Long Island and southern CT. Would post but am mobile right now: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Quote .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Attention will be on upstream trough, and eventual sfc low that is forecast to develop to our southwest, and pass off the Mid Atlantic coast, on Thu tracking toward or just south of the 40N/70W benchmark. Have continued to discount the fast/flat GFS solution in favor of a more amplified a la ECMWF/SREF mean blend. NAM appears too amplified, and appears much too wet. It still looks like will rain move in ahead of the approaching low Wed night. then we will see a transition to snow from NW to SE to snow as colder air moves in north of the developing low. An overall snowfall of at least 4-6 inches appears likely, with the highest amounts over central/eastern Long Island and southern CT. Position of heaviest snow bands remains in question, and could well shift north of here. The probabilistic snowfall forecast will reflect this as well as potential for amounts of 6-8 inches in the higher percentile categories, not to be taken lightly since snowfall totals have pushed the 90th percentile with almost every winter weather event this season. Trough axis moves through Wed night as sfc low deepens as it departs to the northeast. High pressure builds, then upstream energy approaches as a warm front approaches late in the week. This weekend could be unsettled, with possible light snow Friday night as cold air remains in place. Temps warm as the weekend progresses, so any precip would transition to rain. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 GFS is already more amped with the shortwave through 36. 12z 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 On 2/7/2017 at 3:41 PM, brooklynwx99 said: GFS is already more amped with the shortwave through 36. 12z 06z Expand Yup, hopefully no last minute surprises with this one. We consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 12z RGEM Totals through 2/9 12z (snow is still falling across much of the region): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 999 in VA compared to 1002 in VA on the 06z. Also farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Gfs wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Deform sneaks into NYC a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 GFS @ hr48 is a crush for most of the area. Another NW jump though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Pretty much an everyone wins kind of run for this subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just a hint of blocking, and this thing would bury the coast through at least CNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Looking at 14 cases of storms with an AO-/PNA+ and cool ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies (2/1-15/1950-2016), a general 4"-8" snowfall seems to be a reasonable proposition until more details are available on the later guidance. I'm talking about the entire Upton forecasting area. There would be about a 20% probability of a 10" or greater snowfall and 50% probability of around 5" in and around NYC. Interestingly enough, the probabilities for Boston are very similar for such storms, in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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