ag3 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 On 2/6/2017 at 6:13 PM, jm1220 said: We would need something like the NAM to really pound snow down and cool the column. Also we need it to be a little slow so that cold air can get here in time. It's possible this can be a nice event areawide but just as likely it's what you describe near the coast. Lot of bust potential either way. Expand Euro is mid to upper 20s the entire event for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Euro looks 1-3", even Long Island... you don't start seeing 4-6" until you get well into central/ southern Jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 On 2/6/2017 at 6:14 PM, nzucker said: Euro tends to be a little light on QPF. Having a little wiggle room for this to trend north and warmer, is a good thing. Better than the Euro showing a rainstorm with the track too far north. Expand The Euro is pretty flat at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 On 2/6/2017 at 6:16 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Euro looks 1-3", even Long Island... you don't start seeing 4-6" until you get well into central/ southern Jersey Expand No one in NYC Metro and LI is under 2" on the Euro. Euro verbatim is coating to 1" for the interior. 2"-4" for NYC/LI. 3"-6" south of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 If you take the mean of the NAM/GFS/EURO, overall 'spray' is pointing to a Metro hit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 On 2/6/2017 at 6:17 PM, ag3 said: No one in NYC Metro and LI is under 2" on the Euro. Euro verbatim is coating to 1" for the interior. 2"-4" for NYC/LI. 3"-6" south of there. Expand 2" would fall In the 1-3" category so I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 On 2/6/2017 at 6:20 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: 2" would fall In the 1-3" category so I agree Expand Euro is 2"-4" for NYC Metro and LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Ok. Do we need to review what "NY metro" means? Every damn winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 On 2/6/2017 at 6:26 PM, BxEngine said: Ok. Do we need to review what "NY metro" means? Every damn winter. Expand Every damn event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Maybe it was too early to throw the GGEM out. Looks like lots of uncertainty. The SE ridge often being more stout than expected probably helps the northern solutions but the Euro going flatter wasn't great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Will all take 2-3 inches and like it. In this non winter this baby popped up last second, relatively speaking. , 1 more storm this month and another in March ( avg) and we will be close nough to average area wide where the winter wont be considered a total disaster. Impressive to say the least with the temp. profile for this ''winter'' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 On 2/6/2017 at 6:30 PM, jm1220 said: Maybe it was too early to throw the GGEM out. Looks like lots of uncertainty. The SE ridge often being more stout than expected probably helps the northern solutions but the Euro going flatter wasn't great. Expand The GGEM has been pretty consistent... and the euro took a step in that direction.... NAM and GFS camp doesn't exactly inspire confidence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 On 2/6/2017 at 6:32 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: The GGEM has been pretty consistent... and the euro took a step in that direction.... NAM and GFS camp doesn't exactly inspire confidence Expand No models have been consistent Euro is fine for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 On 2/6/2017 at 6:22 PM, ag3 said: Euro is 2"-4" for NYC Metro and LI. Expand Nice run Cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 On 2/6/2017 at 6:28 PM, IrishRob17 said: Every damn event Expand Every damm event that is several days out. Splitting damm hairs every time. I wish they were bald. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 On 2/6/2017 at 6:42 PM, hudsonvalley21 said: Every damm event that is several days out. Splitting damm hairs every time. I wish they were bald. Expand Now THATS a bald joke, dammit! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 On 2/6/2017 at 6:44 PM, IrishRob17 said: Now THATS a bald joke, dammit! LOL Expand Wear a hat, I do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 On 2/6/2017 at 6:32 PM, nyblizz44 said: Will all take 2-3 inches and like it. In this non winter this baby popped up last second, relatively speaking. , more storm this month and another in March ( avg) and we will be close nough to average area wide where the winter wont be considered a total disaster. Impressive to say the last with the temp. profile for this ''winter'' Expand I agree, that's the big take home with this for the coast. 2" would keep us chugging along to a average snowfall winter. Pretty incredible considering the temps and lack of a big HECS. If you gave me this winters temps and said there was no HECS beforehandI would say this winter would be a true ratter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West of Town Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 On 2/6/2017 at 6:28 PM, IrishRob17 said: Every damn event Expand This made me legitimately laugh out loud. +1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Welp, I fly from EWR to Fort Myers on Thursday at 7 am... I hope this doesn't impact the airlines. Probably looking like a 2-4" event for the area based off this model suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 I'm rooting for the Euro. I think it's one of the best cases for the metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 On 2/6/2017 at 6:46 PM, hudsonvalley21 said: Wear a hat, I do Expand Sometimes a helmet is a better choice in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Upton is onboard for Metro Wednesday Night A chance of rain showers before 1am, then a chance of rain and snow showers between 1am and 3am, then snow likely after 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. West wind 9 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Thursday Snow likely, mainly before 8am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 On 2/6/2017 at 8:12 PM, sferic said: Upton is onboard for Metro Wednesday Night A chance of rain showers before 1am, then a chance of rain and snow showers between 1am and 3am, then snow likely after 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. West wind 9 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Thursday Snow likely, mainly before 8am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Expand My local hasnt updated yet, its still the sme since am 1-3 inches Wed. night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 HWO my area IN ADDITION...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR PLOWABLE SNOW IS INCREASING AND THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR 6 OR MORE INCHES. UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS STORM IS HIGH AS THE ATMOSPHERE DYNAMICS THAT WILL POTENTIALLY CAUSE THE STORM TO DEVELOP ALONG OUR COAST ARE STILL OUT OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS STORM, IF IT DOES DEVELOP, SHOULD BE A FAST MOVER AND BE OUT TO SEA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Nams even more amped than 12z so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Nam certainly doesn't back down, down to 998 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 NAM with a mini nuke-bomb. Ridge sharper in the west certainly helps this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 996 north of Delmarva.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Wow, absolute crush job on the nam LHV jackpot with over a foot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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