WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Discuss away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Euro looked great. Colder than the GFS. Solid 6" for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 2 hours ago, jrodd321 said: Euro looked great. Colder than the GFS. Solid 6" for most. Morning afd from mt holly nws mentions it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Winter makes a potentially dramatic comeback on Thursday following a very mild Wednesday. Then warm advection comes back for the weekend. Cold FROPA on Wednesday with some spotty light rain still around in the morning. FCST max temps, mid to upper 50s, are within a few degrees of records. The system of interest is late Wednesday night into Thursday. Have focused on ECMWF and GFS/GEFS for the forecast. The dynamics of interest is energy still out in the Pacific where pattern is rather chaotic with a Rex Block currently over Alaska. This energy undercuts the Block and rapidly tracks east. The other energy is in the north stream shortwave and is coming down the eastern side of the Rex Block from around 80 degrees north. The NWP is rather impressive with the rapid, but progressive cyclogenesis. GEFS members support categorical POPs. (Note, am discounting the NAM and CMC operational runs as do not believe they`re fully capturing the energy.) The jet structure seen is also impressive (though not exactly textbook). A coupled Jet with 130+ KT maxes is noted over the northeast in the predawn hours. The other issues are boundary layer temps and timing. Temps appear such that they should support mainly snow or rain changing to snow along the coast. Timing, which is focused on Thursday morning, could be 6 hours faster or slower as seen in the GEFS. As for amounts - there are members of the GEFS with over an inch of liquid. believe that is over a 30% potential for 6" plus. Thus, we`ll start an "outlook" for this system. POPs were raised to likely along the coast, but expect POPs to rise as uncertainty diminishes over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 EPS has around 3 inches for the NYC metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 6z GFS didn't back off overall, but cut back on the snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 6z NAM has mostly rain for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 It's going to have to be a thread the needle on this one I think. Not a lot of wiggle room between either cold enough but only little precip and lot of precip but too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Morris said: 6z GFS didn't back off overall, but cut back on the snow totals. Probably just noise, but I am not quite ready to go all in yet with this storm as things can still change for the better and worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 6, 2017 Author Share Posted February 6, 2017 14 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said: It's going to have to be a thread the needle on this one I think. Not a lot of wiggle room between either cold enough but only little precip and lot of precip but too warm. We need the heavy precip solution so we get a more dynamic system otherwise it's going to be white rain. We need a system that the GFS showed last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: We need the heavy precip solution so we get a more dynamic system otherwise it's going to be white rain. We need a system that the GFS showed last night Temps look cold enough We dont need heavy precip , just precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 20 minutes ago, Morris said: 6z NAM has mostly rain for the city. Nam has been very warm with this system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 6, 2017 Author Share Posted February 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Nam has been very warm with this system Not according to nam we don't but essentially you want a more dynamic system so you get more than just snow on the grass is what I'm saying. Last night GFS would be perfect but it's too bad 6z GFS was like 3 inches if that went down from 6-10 inches for the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 This needs to be further south than what the GFS solution showed in order for the metro to get snow. 6z GFS was too warm, cold rain for 50% of the storm. Euro was perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 From the New England forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, mimillman said: This needs to be further south than what the GFS solution showed in order for the metro to get snow. 6z GFS was too warm, cold rain for 50% of the storm. Euro was perfect. Perfect if you live in central Jersey anyone north of the city is scrooed with the Euro run. Plenty of time for those details to be worked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 14 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Perfect if you live in central Jersey anyone north of the city is scrooed with the Euro run. Plenty of time for those details to be worked out. I specifically mention the metro in my post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 6, 2017 Author Share Posted February 6, 2017 43 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: From the New England forum. GEFS look great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 EPS has a much better grasp on this at 00z than 12z yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 1 hour ago, mimillman said: I specifically mention the metro in my post. Not to beat a dead horse but that is part of the metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 1 hour ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: EPS has a much better grasp on this at 00z than 12z yesterday Upton has a great writeup. This will all have to do with timing. Let's get the Tuesday event out of here first. The Thursday event might just come down to "nowcasting". .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Winter makes a potentially dramatic comeback on Thursday following a very mild Wednesday. Then warm advection comes back for the weekend. Cold FROPA on Wednesday with some spotty light rain still around in the morning. FCST max temps, mid to upper 50s, are within a few degrees of records. The system of interest is late Wednesday night into Thursday. Have focused on ECMWF and GFS/GEFS for the forecast. The dynamics of interest is energy still out in the Pacific where pattern is rather chaotic with a Rex Block currently over Alaska. This energy undercuts the Block and rapidly tracks east. The other energy is in the north stream shortwave and is coming down the eastern side of the Rex Block from around 80 degrees north. The NWP is rather impressive with the rapid, but progressive cyclogenesis. GEFS members support categorical POPs. (Note, am discounting the NAM and CMC operational runs as do not believe they`re fully capturing the energy.) The jet structure seen is also impressive (though not exactly textbook). A coupled Jet with 130+ KT maxes is noted over the northeast in the predawn hours. The other issues are boundary layer temps and timing. Temps appear such that they should support mainly snow or rain changing to snow along the coast. Timing, which is focused on Thursday morning, could be 6 hours faster or slower as seen in the GEFS. As for amounts - there are members of the GEFS with over an inch of liquid. believe that is over a 30% potential for 6" plus. Thus, we`ll start an "outlook" for this system. POPs were raised to likely along the coast, but expect POPs to rise as uncertainty diminishes over the next few days. Otherwise, high pressure builds in for Friday followed by a prolonged overrunning period for the weekend with light drizzle and/or light rain possible. Based on current temp forecast - some ZR is possible well inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 6, 2017 Author Share Posted February 6, 2017 GFS para 0z run has a strong coastal tucked in. Looks like the best chance for heavy snowfall is inland on this run because of how tucked in the low is. Another run another solution. At least we didn't get a strung out low. We want a benchmark track with a strong low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Para Nam, and para GFS Are nearly identical, while the operational are vastly different lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 These storms that are a race between cold air and precip are always dangerous. There's good potential for a snowy event if the low organizes enough and cold air arrives in time, otherwise it could be a cold or white rain, or a graze. It'll be another day before this gets sorted out. The best potential for something significant IMO is a narrow band just NW of I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Nams coming in south from 06 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 More amped also, 500 has notable change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Nams an absolute crush job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Entire sub forum including parts of jersey get pasted on nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Wow nam. Mecs for the metro only if it was 24 hrs out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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