Hoosier Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: The Euro gives ORD 1-2" and is the most bullish. 18z also bumped slightly north Do you have the Euro qpf output for ORD? I only looked at the Kuchera snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 The streak is safe at ORD through this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 3 km NAM is more generous on the northern end but still doesn't do ORD any good. Really not sure how this plays out here just south of I-80. Anything from a few tenths to a couple inches seems plausible. Banding should be a player so will have to see how that sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Thanks Hoosier and Thundersnow, yes we will rely on banding, looks like Kankakee is in a "sweet spot" would love to see someone get 2-3" from this. Your right lookin at a map I always forgot how far north ORD is! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 beggars can't be choosers, but I normally hate these kind of systems. They come out of the miss valley juiced, then dampen out as they head east through IN and OH only to strengthen right before the coast. Upshot....we get jumped. But again, in this miserable dumpster of a winter, it's hard to be a snob over the potential for a sloppy inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, buckeye said: beggars can't be choosers, but I normally hate these kind of systems. They come out of the miss valley juiced, then dampen out as they head east through IN and OH only to strengthen right before the coast. Upshot....we get jumped. But again, in this miserable dumpster of a winter, it's hard to be a snob over the potential for a sloppy inch or two. I'll take a sloppy 1" snowfall for a wintry landscape for 24 hours before we warm back into the 50's puts my seasonal total at 4.9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 This one is lookin like the "big one" of the lame winter in these parts. But it looks much better than even it did 24 hours ago, and temperatures have crashed much sooner and colder than previously forecast, so urban heat island looking to be no longer an issue. Given model trends, I also smell "overperformance" for some areas, perhaps here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Looks like the MLI/DVN streak should end tomorrow. Probably here as well. In a way I would like to see the streak continue, since this is pretty much a non-event, but it will be nice to see snow again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 hours ago, Chambana said: Thanks Hoosier and Thundersnow, yes we will rely on banding, looks like Kankakee is in a "sweet spot" would love to see someone get 2-3" from this. Your right lookin at a map I always forgot how far north ORD is! Living about 20 miles east of Kankakee, feeling pretty optimistic about this, unless it's a big bust it'll be our biggest snow of 2017 so far amazingly enough. But models keep trending better, so it could possibly overperform in my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Looking to good old fashioned radar, this thing looks like it's really blowing up over Nebraska!... Recent model runs including RAP and HRRR have started pushing 5-6 inches into central IA, My curiosity is certainly piqued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 This is quite comical; donut hole right over Columbus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 23 minutes ago, osubrett2 said: This is quite comical; donut hole right over Columbus. good lord what a dumpster fire of a system....(at least through here). As I said earlier, the NAM is showing the snow hop scotching us as the initial band dampens and the storm strengthens to the east. IOW, that map verifying would not shock me. By the way, you Ohio guys might want to flag Feb 16 thru Feb 19 on your calendars. I'll be in Arizona those days. When I leave town during anemic winters, we tend to get the best of it when I'm gone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 hour ago, osubrett2 said: This is quite comical; donut hole right over Columbus. That has nothing for me in southern Indiana. Waiting for the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Several of the 00z models shifted back south with the northern edge of the snow in this area compared to previous runs. Looks like we're back to DAB, so the streak should live on here. MLI may still be far enough south to get a wussy inch though. Gonna be close call at DVN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 10 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Several of the 00z models shifted back south with the northern edge of the snow in this area compared to previous runs. Looks like we're back to DAB, so the streak should live on here. MLI may still be far enough south to get a wussy inch though. Gonna be close call at DVN. I hate to be the guy to radar hallucinate, but to me it looks like the better returns right now in Iowa are a bit north of where the 00z runs had them. I have not checked to see what's reaching the ground though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 28 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I hate to be the guy to radar hallucinate, but to me it looks like the better returns right now in Iowa are a bit north of where the 00z runs had them. I have not checked to see what's reaching the ground though. HRRR seems to have a good handle on it to my eyes. It has us at about 0.02", and MLI at about 0.08" on latest run. On the plus side it's been advertising a narrow, but heavy band of accumulations right through Champaign on several of the latest runs. Would be some good news for Chambana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 I wasn't fully buying the south shift of the 00z-02z models based on radar returns as the storm developed. They put Ames at .4 inches of snow and they're already being dumped on even north of there. While locations/positions may vary, the name of the game intuition-wise looks to promise overperformance, for you guys to my east in Il-OH This is a total overperformer to my delight. We have much more to come, and have about 2" on the ground already. We'll likely have 5-7" before it's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 HRRR is painting Champaign/Urbana to north of Indy and up to Lima, OH as the "winners" of this system. For Columbus, temperatures will be in the 40s all day and don't drop below freezing until most of the precip is out of here. I suspect we'll start off as rain and switch to a sloppy 1" of snow that should only stick to grassy and elevated surfaces. I'd rather get nothing than get teased from the west, north, and east. Whatever falls will be gone by Saturday since we'll jump back into the 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 A sneaky, narrow enhanced band knifed right through here and overperformed. Picked up a good inch or so. <1" streak over here, and also at DVN. MLI picked up 0.7", but they may get scraped by the second wave moving in. Kind of a lame way to end the streak, but it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 hours ago, osubrett2 said: HRRR is painting Champaign/Urbana to north of Indy and up to Lima, OH as the "winners" of this system. For Columbus, temperatures will be in the 40s all day and don't drop below freezing until most of the precip is out of here. I suspect we'll start off as rain and switch to a sloppy 1" of snow that should only stick to grassy and elevated surfaces. I'd rather get nothing than get teased from the west, north, and east. Whatever falls will be gone by Saturday since we'll jump back into the 60s. man, I really hate to be that weenie ... and I fully understand my doppler radar may be skewed by my weenie goggles....noting all of that, it just looks like the HRRR is too far north and too slow with the incoming snow band through IN and OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Not a single flake here with this storm as of this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Most accumulation I have had in a while, and I could probably count the flakes on the driveway by hand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 23 minutes ago, buckeye said: man, I really hate to be that weenie ... and I fully understand my doppler radar may be skewed by my weenie goggles....noting all of that, it just looks like the HRRR is too far north and too slow with the incoming snow band through IN and OH. This kind of winter will do that to yah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 As cyclone said, a narrow moderate to heavy band formed on the northern edge and passed through my area around 2:30am. I wasn't awake to see it, but I picked up a quick 1.1 inches. Up to 1.8" fell just se of CR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 hour ago, KokomoWX said: Not a single flake here with this storm as of this point. LMAO! I'm doing my best Lewis Black imitation right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Light snow has started. A little earlier than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just a light dusting here. Better returns have been south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMADreamer Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Solid dusting here so far with it all coming in the last hour. Started off as sleet earlier then changed to huge flakes. Looking at the radar I'd say we could end up with a inch or so if the intensity keeps like it's going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Coming down a bit better now. Rates have not been good enough to get it to stick on paved surfaces though for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Looks like it's pounding pretty good in Kankakee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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