snowlover2 Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Could be a secondary farther south like GFS/GGEM has. Euro currently does not show this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 49 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: Could be a secondary farther south like GFS/GGEM has. Euro currently does not show this. the models with the strongest solution scour out any chance of secondary development, (which makes sense). The weaker solutions allow room for the second system to develop. Will be interesting to watch what happens. I've seen a lot of these wound up systems fall apart really fast....but maybe this one is finally the blind squirrel's nut. As far as our neck of the woods, our only hope here is a much weaker initial system and a much stronger second system. IOW, we need a miracle. IOW welcome to winter 2016/17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 29 minutes ago, buckeye said: the models with the strongest solution scour out any chance of secondary development, (which makes sense). The weaker solutions allow room for the second system to develop. Will be interesting to watch what happens. I've seen a lot of these wound up systems fall apart really fast....but maybe this one is finally the blind squirrel's nut. As far as our neck of the woods, our only hope here is a much weaker initial system and a much stronger second system. IOW, we need a miracle. IOW welcome to winter 2016/17 Buck, you don't even have the JMA and NAVGEM on your side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 5, 2017 Author Share Posted February 5, 2017 6z GFS shows a more robust second system behind the main storm dropping a decent area of snow especially into Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 33 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: 6z GFS shows a more robust second system behind the main storm dropping a decent area of snow especially into Ohio. I noticed this too. Actually the euro is starting to pick up on the outside chance as well with a streak of snow coming across the midwest and exiting off the MA coast. Just a dusting for us, but from nothing to having 'something'. GGEM says nada. It would be ironic if our second 'snowfall' of the season was a last minute, (24hrs out), surprise like the first one was. I wonder if we'll see a better trend with this? Must be a result of the first system being less impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 3 hours ago, buckeye said: I noticed this too. Actually the euro is starting to pick up on the outside chance as well with a streak of snow coming across the midwest and exiting off the MA coast. Just a dusting for us, but from nothing to having 'something'. GGEM says nada. It would be ironic if our second 'snowfall' of the season was a last minute, (24hrs out), surprise like the first one was. I wonder if we'll see a better trend with this? Must be a result of the first system being less impressive. I always root for my own backyard first and foremost, but since I'm going to be too far north for this snow streak, hope it over performs for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 The secondary wave is the one to watch.Sent from my SM-G925T using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Secondary wave has surprise potential. The gfs is schizo over it. One run it has it, the next run it loses it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 24 minutes ago, buckeye said: Secondary wave has surprise potential. The gfs is schizo over it. One run it has it, the next run it loses it. As far as the bolded, maybe for the I-95 corridor. Although I wouldn't be surprised with some stat padding snow in your neck of the woods either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Are we keeping this thread going for the next system which is completely separate with the wave on Wednesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 15 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: Are we keeping this thread going for the next system which is completely separate with the wave on Wednesday? I split the posts into here. Not sure this thing is actually going to be thread worthy but maybe something can trend better for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 UKMET seems to be farthest north at this point. Would end Chicago's futility streak so that is an automatic strike against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Models are starting to converge on snow flying in some of the snow-starved areas south of I-80, but the timing during the day and slow crashing temperatures might inhibit nice accumulations before it starts to strengthen as it slides off the Mid-Atl coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Feels like forever since I posted snow maps This is 24 hr accumulation and it cuts off some snow in the Plains, but I wanted to keep it separate from the current system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 You can tell were desperate when we have threads for 1-2 inches at the most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: You can tell were desperate when we have threads for 1-2 inches at the most I was hoping we could get it pinned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 hour ago, cyclone77 said: I was hoping we could get it pinned. Lol. With the GFS a little south and the NAM a little north with the stripe of snow, I could end up bullseye. Final call: 0.9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 I'm pleased to greet the boards with my presence, my celebration for the potential for an inch of snow! Good Morrow Fare! 18z GFS and NAM both prog my location to receive the heavier half of what I would call a traditional "1 to 3 inch" wording of a NWS zone forecast, But I live in a fully paved part of town with no lawns, downtown. I do not expect to see more than an inch, if that, given that this system is coming right on the heels of a warm day. I will obviously welcome any higher totals, but I... I doubt it. Nevertheless, I exclaim that it's nice to see consensual dark blue shading across model runs. I haven't seen that since December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Was just in the 20s this morning and should be below freezing for several hours prior to precip possibly arriving, so I'm not that concerned about ground temps. Maybe the paved surfaces struggle a little initially if rates are too light but my bigger concern imby is getting enough precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 00z NAM is a decent run for parts of central IN/OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 7, 2017 Author Share Posted February 7, 2017 16 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 00z NAM is a decent run for parts of central IN/OH. 0z 4k NAM pretty good too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 22 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 00z NAM is a decent run for parts of central IN/OH. Crushes NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 7 minutes ago, Powerball said: Crushes NYC. Especially just north. Out of the big cities I'd probably want to be in BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 42 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 00z NAM is a decent run for parts of central IN/OH. Last chance for us unless we get a march surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 41 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 00z NAM is a decent run for parts of central IN/OH. Different and more favorable run aloft which leads to a better reflection at the surface and a new secondary area of snow which ends up the beginning of the northeast storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Pretty sizable shift north with the 0z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 12z ECMWF has a couple inches here. Even a half inch would be my biggest snow in many weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 ORD 1" snowfall record could be in jeapordy if the 12z GFS run verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 19 minutes ago, Chambana said: ORD 1" snowfall record could be in jeapordy if the 12z GFS run verifies. Would need more than the GFS. Don't forget ORD is located almost as far north as it gets in Chicago. UKMET is most threatening with about one tenth qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 18 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Would need more than the GFS. Don't forget ORD is located almost as far north as it gets in Chicago. UKMET is most threatening with about one tenth qpf. The Euro gives ORD 1-2" and is the most bullish. 18z also bumped slightly north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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