Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Nobody..and I mean NOBODY can fail better than we can. We own that ****. I'll give y'all that.....like the Patriots of winter weather debacles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 GFS only shifted the slp about 150 miles NW.....a mere 'tick' ;-)Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
motsco Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Twc should name this winter storm Brady ? Brady is a champ. this winter is a chump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 SuckersSent from my iPad using Tapatalk Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 We could always have a New England comeback in the SuperBowl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 And we've been saying you can't trust models outside 5 days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Cmon dont give me the Skins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 The difference between CMC and GFS at both the surface and 500 is pretty hilarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, paulythegun said: The difference between CMC and GFS at both the surface and 500 is pretty hilarious. Who cares, if anyone thinks this works out for snow for us is out to lunch. This isnt a setup that works. Winter is over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 42 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Still think this one will end up being a subforum divider. GFS gives like 6" to mappyville based on TT maps. If the gfs is right, big if, that would be a 6-10" wet snow bomb up here. 1.2 qpf with 850 temps fine and surface mid 30s dropping to near 32. That's the type setup we win with up here. 1050 elevation helps a lot. too bad it's not on a weekend I would say we should do a sub forum get together up at my place. Unfortunately it's mostly a mid week overnight snow. But I've had little luck here too. Gfs trends north at all and I'm out of it also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 The UKMET at 72 is west of the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 I will defer to the good pattern recognition folks on the board - but this sure seems like a pretty good longwave pattern at day 10 on the 0z gfs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 34 minutes ago, motsco said: ? Brady is a champ. this winter is a chump. Lol- Brady moved the storm to the SNE end zone where it belongs. I didn't say name it winter storm Theisman or Williams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, kurtstack said: I will defer to the good pattern recognition folks on the board - but this sure seems like a pretty good longwave pattern at day 10 on the 0z gfs: Gfs is fairly close to something. EPS had had some hits around then too. It's a period of interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The UKMET at 72 is west of the GFS West could be ok if it means slower. Get the cold in. North would be bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Gfs is fairly close to something. EPS had had some hits around then too. It's a period of interest. Also looks like that period coincides with mjo phase 8 and a relaxing negative ao - so it has a few things going for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: 00z Ukie has the low right over us at 72. That ain't going to cut it. Looks like it's cuttin nw just fine. Gefs agrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 27 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The UKMET at 72 is west of the GFS You must have been looking at the old ukmet. At 72 the gfs is 1005 mb over east central TN. The ukmet at the same time has the low just east of Elkins WV. It's way northeast of the gfs at 72. It's a pretty awful run unless your north of our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Looks like it's cuttin nw just fine. Gefs agrees. This is why I didn't want to get invested in this. These type setups seem to adjust a lot until the very end and usually the adjustment is to trend north. I know the early feb 2014 setup was very similar and that started suppressed then ended up north of our area in the end. Been afraid this one would slip away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Been afraid this one would slip away. Considering the ops basically just found this one 24 hours ago and the ensembles never really sucked us in the past couple days...it doesn't feel like anything is slipping away. If feels more like "sorry man, you knew you never had a chance but I figured I'd F with you for a day cuz it's funny" Euro will probably suck us all back in so it hurts worse tomorrow. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Looks like it's cuttin nw just fine. Gefs agrees. Damn you weren't kidding about the gefs. Only a couple fluke members still have snow in our area. Most are way north. Consensus is up along PA/NY border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Considering the ops basically just found this one 24 hours ago and the ensembles never really sucked us in the past couple days...it doesn't feel like anything is slipping away. If feels more like "sorry man, you knew you never had a chance but I figured I'd F with you for a day cuz it's funny" Euro will probably suck us all back in so it hurts worse tomorrow. Lol Yea. I always find it odd how our desperation for snow plays tricks on our common sense. Going all the way back to march 2001 that shifted way north all of a sudden one run and showed a blizzard. But why did we assume it was done trending? That feb 2014 storm is another example. Often we look good only for a moment as the guidance shifts past us to the final solution. When it jumped so far north all of a sudden with cold barely pressing and in the middle of a crap mjo phase during a spike I just figured this was a letdown waiting to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 36 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Considering the ops basically just found this one 24 hours ago and the ensembles never really sucked us in the past couple days...it doesn't feel like anything is slipping away. If feels more like "sorry man, you knew you never had a chance but I figured I'd F with you for a day cuz it's funny" Euro will probably suck us all back in so it hurts worse tomorrow. Lol Well would you look at that. Gefs long range lost the torch. Dare I say it's trending towards a better look? I'm actually not that down about this. This miss is actually more of a typical way we fail. At least it's snowing in the freaking northeast US again. Yea it hurts that it's not us but this new normal we are in lately seems to give us more a chance then we had most of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 I'll hug the euro. Sucks us right back in. JV paste job. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I'll hug the euro. Sucks us right back in. JV paste job. Lol Can you imagine what a 3-6" wet snow paste job would do for the mood of this forum. Please.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just now, psuhoffman said: Can you imagine what a 3-6" wet snow paste job would do for the mood of this forum. Please.... Was that what the euro showed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'll hug the euro. Sucks us right back in. JV paste job. Lol Any more fine details? and what's jv stand for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, Chase said: Was that what the euro showed? Pretty much. Quick thump snow centered right up 95. About 4-5". But I only glanced. Im not spending time on details when this is still in flux. If it's still a legit threat tomorrow evening I'll start worrying about details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 This run proves to me that I have no control over euro analysis with such low res and time gaps. Subscribers are our only hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Can you imagine what a 3-6" wet snow paste job would do for the mood of this forum. Please.... Perfect precip max and perfect low placement between 6-12z considering the dicey setup. The downhill slide just got steeper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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