psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 1 hour ago, BTRWx said: It's less into 1, but expected after prior runs showed off-the-charts 8 Gefs goes crazy into 8 then fades towards either cod or even back towards 7 late. Euro is less nuts into 8 but then progresses to 1 late. Euro mjo would be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Going to be painful if what looked like a suppressed squashed wave to our south for days trends into a snow for north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Going to be painful if what looked like a suppressed squashed wave to our south for days trends into a snow for north of us. You probably have the least to worry about in that regard. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Only goes out to 78 but the extrapolated ICON model looks decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: You probably have the least to worry about in that regard. lol. True but I'm not immune to a north trend if it goes para nam crazy north. But more it's that I want it to snow in DC and Baltimore. Yea I want mine but second I want yours because otherwise it will get real ugly in here and make it impossible to discuss or analyze anything. That and I don't enjoy others misery. Btw jb just did a video a few minutes ago and since I'm bored I checked it out. He said exactly what I did earlier about the long range ensembles. How once that trough moves out of the west the jet will undercut the ridge and boom better pattern. Of course it's probably a bad thing he said that and now I'm questioning if I'm just wishcasting. Kinda joking kinda serious. You see what I was seeing late, in terms of how that could easily morph into a decent snow pattern quickly after? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: True but I'm not immune to a north trend if it goes para nam crazy north. But more it's that I want it to snow in DC and Baltimore. Yea I want mine but second I want yours because otherwise it will get real ugly in here and make it impossible to discuss or analyze anything. That and I don't enjoy others misery. Btw jb just did a video a few minutes ago and since I'm bored I checked it out. He said exactly what I did earlier about the long range ensembles. How once that trough moves out of the west the jet will undercut the ridge and boom better pattern. Of course it's probably a bad thing he said that and now I'm questioning if I'm just wishcasting. Kinda joking kinda serious. You see what I was seeing late, in terms of how that could easily morph into a decent snow pattern quickly after? Yea, the NA torching could be short lived. Get the EPO ridge back up and keep the high heights over hudson/gl and things could turn around pretty quick instead of a drawn out step down like we had earlier this year. Hopefully we get a couple of events under our belt before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: True but I'm not immune to a north trend if it goes para nam crazy north. But more it's that I want it to snow in DC and Baltimore. Yea I want mine but second I want yours because otherwise it will get real ugly in here and make it impossible to discuss or analyze anything. That and I don't enjoy others misery. Btw jb just did a video a few minutes ago and since I'm bored I checked it out. He said exactly what I did earlier about the long range ensembles. How once that trough moves out of the west the jet will undercut the ridge and boom better pattern. Of course it's probably a bad thing he said that and now I'm questioning if I'm just wishcasting. Kinda joking kinda serious. You see what I was seeing late, in terms of how that could easily morph into a decent snow pattern quickly after? Noble of you. But the forum is so large and with such diverse climo that outside the extreme synoptic event there will always be haves and have nots. Most times you will be talking about what's good on the buffet but many can't even afford to pay the entrance fee and will likely be starving. When you choose your zip code you choose your fate. This point will likely be proven again on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Noble of you. But the forum is so large and with such diverse climo that outside the extreme synoptic event there will always be haves and have nots. Most times you will be talking about what's good on the buffet but many can't even afford to pay the entrance fee and will likely be starving. When you choose your zip code you choose your fate. This point will likely be proven again on Thursday. It's not an accident I live in the best snow climo location in our region except for places right along the eastern divide. But I have to commute an extra hour a day then mist for it. But that said not every storm follows climo exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 46 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It's not an accident I live in the best snow climo location in our region except for places right along the eastern divide. But I have to commute an extra hour a day then mist for it. But that said not every storm follows climo exactly. How's that working out for you climo king? Just kidding. I'd be happy just to reach my own climo. You can have your 40i inches I would take my 20. I can't get 2 and neither can you. Something is broken. What the hell is going on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 LOL, best hope NAM is wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: LOL, best hope NAM is wrong Actually, probably better that we know now. Really, the trend seems to be going the way of the Nam as everything after the 0z runs have trended bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 The story of the season....heights too high over us. Nam 500 mb height anomaly at 60 hours says it all. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=eus&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017020600&fh=63&xpos=0&ypos=42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: The story of the season....heights too high over us. Nam 500 mb height anomaly at 60 hours says it all. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=eus&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017020600&fh=63&xpos=0&ypos=42 NAM does not deserve to be treated equally fyi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: The story of the season....heights too high over us. Nam 500 mb height anomaly at 60 hours says it all. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=eus&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017020600&fh=63&xpos=0&ypos=42 2 takeaways from this year. Low heights/depth of cold push way over modeled past 5 days, and terrible NAO forecasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, BTRWx said: NAM does not deserve to be treated equally fyi You're going to be wrong re the Nam on this one. The writing is on the wall imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: You're going to be wrong re the Nam on this one. The writing is on the wall imho. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 You're going to be wrong re the Nam on this one. The writing is on the wall imho.I concur. Trends all around are horrible. On to that day 10-16 window! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Hanging more energy back, closer but not definitive. Edit: warmer to start. Just won't escape as quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Adios Bart. Plenty of time, lots can change, just happy to be in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Adios Bart. Plenty of time, lots can change, just happy to be in the game. GFS...debacle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 SNE wins again next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Twc should name this winter storm Brady Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Good hit for NYC and BOS. There's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Nobody..and I mean NOBODY can fail better than we can. We own that ****. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Least we'll get a lot of rain, .75 contour goes through D.C.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Trigger warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Still think this one will end up being a subforum divider. GFS gives like 6" to mappyville based on TT maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: GFS...debacle I might still be hanging by a thread, but I won't be for long. Models have struggled beyond 5 this year. I'm not bashing models, they are incredible, but something is really giving them fits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Still think this one will end up being a subforum divider. GFS gives like 6" to mappyville based on TT maps. For now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Nobody..and I mean NOBODY can fail better than we can. We own that ****. We are the GOAT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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