psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Gefs is actually headed towards a decent look day 16. If the run went out another couple days. But then we're extrapolating a day 16 prog. But it's positive progress I guess. Im not getting invested in every little jump each run on the day 4 wave. Those things don't lock in until inside 72 hours. We're another 24 hours from me starting to think the guidance is close to a final solution and even then it's risky and these setups usually adjust up to game time. Eta: geps looks decent day 16 too. Maybe guidance is starting to pick up on the mjo influence. Mega torch looks less likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Remember, the mjo is currently against us. Just wait until after day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 18 minutes ago, BTRWx said: Remember, the mjo is currently against us. Just wait until after day 10. I know your kidding but there may end up some truth to that. Eps still has a jump in snow day 10-12. That windows could be real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I know your kidding but there may end up some truth to that. Eps still has a jump in snow day 10-12. That windows could be real. not kidding here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 That GFS para run sure was interesting! Especially for the late week event and again ~day 10-12 as PSU mentioned. Serious question, what has the MJO looked like recently? I know last week it had us going hard into phase 8, then presumably progressing to 1. Yet the GEFS mean didn't exactly look inspiring late in its run. At least earlier, didn't see 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 10 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: That GFS para run sure was interesting! Especially for the late week event and again ~day 10-12 as PSU mentioned. Serious question, what has the MJO looked like recently? I know last week it had us going hard into phase 8, then presumably progressing to 1. Yet the GEFS mean didn't exactly look inspiring late in its run. At least earlier, didn't see 12z. It's less into 1, but expected after prior runs showed off-the-charts 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 End of the 18z Nam looks to hold the cold back longer than 12z Fwliw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 well the para didnt last long - 12z para is a nice snowstorm for the northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, kurtstack said: well the para didnt last long - 12z para is a nice snowstorm for the northeast Doesn't count. Happy hour is just beginning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 hr 81 iwm...no spoiler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Less precip, temps about the same. Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 A little weaker/less precip is not what we need when surface is dicey. Bad run in the trend dept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Amped said: Less precip, temps about the same. Meh f5 it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: A little weaker/less precip is not what we need when surface is dicey. Bad run in the trend dept. huh? http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2017020518&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=084 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Just now, BTRWx said: huh? http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2017020518&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=084 Compare it side by side to 12z. Not a good trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 1 minute ago, BTRWx said: huh? http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2017020518&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=084 2m temps are real nasty. White rain maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Best VVs are at 03z which makes the temp situation even more dicey. Above freezing at 925mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 We are pathetic http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017020518&fh=90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Looking at the 500's and they have improved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Compare it side by side to 12z. Not a good trend. Practicing for tomorrow. Enjoy the game! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Its going to be a race to 32, or as close to it as we are gonna get. This might be the subforum divider of the year. Wouldn't be winter without it happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Its going to be a race to 32, or as close to it as we are gonna get. This might be the subforum divider of the year. Wouldn't be winter without it happening. Prototypical thread the needle on the GFS. Comes in too fast and it is warm, too slow and it probably gets shunted. I'd be surprised if this ends well for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Its going to be a race to 32, or as close to it as we are gonna get. This might be the subforum divider of the year. Wouldn't be winter without it happening. The way things are looking now, the place to be will be ne of us as the precip field to the n and nw of the big cities will be lightish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 LMAO at the 18Z para NAM at 84. That's as CRAS like solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: The way things are looking now, the place to be will be ne of us as the precip field to the n and nw of the big cities will be lightish. Maybe. 18z GFS certaintly gives precip to "the usual" areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: LMAO at the 18Z para NAM at 84. That's as CRAS like solution Think we all need that link. Might boost the happy hour spirits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: LMAO at the 18Z para NAM at 84. That's as CRAS like solution Thermals are hot as f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 15 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Maybe. 18z GFS certaintly gives precip to "the usual" areas. Yes, but the "usual" close by area still have temp issues to deal with at the start. Places to the ne get more of the cold benefit at the start and being closer to the storm, which is way off the coast. Personally, I'd rather be ne, but the gfs is pretty bad for everyone in all honesty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Considering the ops just "discovered" this storm I wouldn't get too hung up on any run for at least a day. I'm just rooting for as juicy as possible. Temps are a certain problem. Need a 4 hour branch bender to pull off accums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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