BTRWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Not a good run. Precip shield is very small and temps lag too much. Strip NW of DC around .2 - .4 @ hr90 with temps in mid/upper 30's. Then some light stuff through 96. It's a crappy run. Where was its placement for the 0z run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 The gefs members that put more emphasis on the 2nd shortwave at 102hrs are the ones that have the most snow. The lead S/W on the OP will give us little if any snow and ruins the setup. Pray it trends weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Not a good run. Precip shield is very small and temps lag too much. Strip NW of DC around .2 - .4 @ hr90 with temps in mid/upper 30's. Then some light stuff through 96. It's a crappy run. Had a feeling a se jog this run was coming. It'll keep our attention for another day or 2, then cut our throats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: Had a feeling a se jog this run was coming. It'll keep our attention for another day or 2, then cut our throats It's not really a SE jog. It's just a little faster/weaker in general. In the grand scheme is a tiny shift with everything. In our yards it's a big one though. Good thing we get to do this every 6 hours for a day or 2. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Light snow is a heck of a lot better than the torch that this would end! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 1 minute ago, BTRWx said: Light snow is a heck of a lot better than the torch that this would end! And I wanna see if it'll indicate any more windows of opportunity afterward--just hoping for anything, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's not really a SE jog. It's just a little faster/weaker in general. In the grand scheme is a tiny shift with everything. In our yards it's a big one though. Good thing we get to do this every 6 hours for a day or 2. lol Which is exactly what the gfs should have shown. I don't think the energy is there on the gfs to create that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: And I wanna see if it'll indicate any more windows of opportunity afterward--just hoping for anything, lol In this chaos, it's almost better to go with analogs, teleconnections, ensembles, then ops. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Fwiw, Ukie very similar to Euro on slp placement and strength day 3&4 http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=096&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=072 http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=072&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=096 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Last night's eps compared to all other guidance is laughable! That low just nw of Texas comes nowhere close to the the Eastern Seaboard. With today's recent 12 hr nwp trends, watch what happens with the 12z eps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 12 minutes ago, BTRWx said: Light snow is a heck of a lot better than the torch that this would end! But this run of the Euro sounds more like another biter reminder of how bad this winter has been, and of that I've already had enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 21 minutes ago, Amped said: The gefs members that put more emphasis on the 2nd shortwave at 102hrs are the ones that have the most snow. The lead S/W on the OP will give us little if any snow and ruins the setup. Pray it trends weaker. Its mean low placement looks ideal for us! Temps aren't great this run, but the chaos is real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 13 minutes ago, BTRWx said: Its mean low placement looks ideal for us! Temps aren't great this run, but the chaos is real. We're going to need some more chaos to actually get a good result from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Euro looks to have something of interest on day 10 aaaaaaaaagain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Euro looks to have something of interest on day 10 aaaaaaaaagain. From the Yukatan, across FL, up the coast, and negative tilt landfall while deepening...interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 27 minutes ago, BTRWx said: From the Yukatan, across FL, up the coast, and negative tilt landfall while deepening...interesting Anything different there than all the other day 10's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Anything different there than all the other day 10's? First run in range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Para gfs has a east coast storm day 12. EPS had some support for that. That's the next window after this day 4 threat. Also agree we should root for a trend towards a slower solution and more emphasis on the trailing vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Para gfs has a east coast storm day 12. EPS had some support for that. That's the next window after this day 4 threat. Also agree we should root for a trend towards a slower solution and more emphasis on the trailing vort. Was the para updated recently? It wasn't available for a while. eta: check out the wave for next week..Holy smokes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Para gfs has a east coast storm day 12. EPS had some support for that. That's the next window after this day 4 threat. Also agree we should root for a trend towards a slower solution and more emphasis on the trailing vort. Long long range enough individual members and op runs paint an alternative picture where we do suffer from higher heights due to the trough crashing the west coast but keep enough blocking to keep it from going to crap and seem close to a flip back cold. It's a minority but enough to hold hope the long range isn't totally lost yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, BTRWx said: Was the para updated recently? It wasn't available for a while. It's updating again. It updates after the op and is one run behind. So 6z just updated. It's a weenie run for sure. Looks decent for day 4 also then some snow day 12 and a not awful pattern at the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It's updating again. It updates after the op and is one run behind You completely skipped over the good stuff!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 I never thought I'd say this, but too many darn ops! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Para gfs has a east coast storm day 12. EPS had some support for that. That's the next window after this day 4 threat. Also agree we should root for a trend towards a slower solution and more emphasis on the trailing vort. Long long range enough individual members and op runs paint an alternative picture where we do suffer from higher heights due to the trough crashing the west coast but keep enough blocking to keep it from going to crap and seem close to a flip back cold. It's a minority but enough to hold hope the long range isn't totally lost yet. If you squint really hard you can see the way out of the warm stretch on the GEFS. EPO ridge is building. Trough in the pac south of the western part of the aleutians. AO isn't positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 1 minute ago, BTRWx said: You completely skipped over the good stuff! Just went back and added it in. But people were asking about the long range threat so I was referring to that but yes the para gfs is maybe the best run of the winter. That's not saying much lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Just went back and added it in. But people were asking about the long range threat so I was referring to that but yes the para gfs is maybe the best run of the winter. That's not saying much lol I've been a fan of this year's para from the start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: If you squint really hard you can see the way out of the warm stretch on the GEFS. EPO ridge is building. Trough in the pac south of the western part of the aleutians. AO isn't positive. The way out is actually simple. Get the trough to either weaken or retrograde off the west coast (pretty much get it to do anything other then sit there) and given the other drivers we would quickly see heights lower across the southern conus with a southern storm track and highs to our north. Forget really cold but that's workable for some late season wet snow. Euro weeklies took us down that path but I'd like to see us get there just a few days sooner to maximize potential before we hit the wall sometime in march. The pattern has gone through some significant fundamental changes. There are still some problems and it's far from ideal but it's not nearly as hostile as most of December and January. I feel like we're finally moving the ball but we're down 17 points going into the 4th quarter. Clock is ticking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The way out is actually simple. Get the trough to either weaken or retrograde off the west coast (pretty much get it to do anything other then sit there) and given the other drivers we would quickly see heights lower across the southern conus with a southern storm track and highs to our north. Forget really cold but that's workable for some late season wet snow. Euro weeklies took us down that path but I'd like to see us get there just a few days sooner to maximize potential before we hit the wall sometime in march. The pattern has gone through some significant fundamental changes. There are still some problems and it's far from ideal but it's not nearly as hostile as most of December and January. I feel like we're finally moving the ball but we're down 17 points going into the 4th quarter. Clock is ticking. Is that the WAR I see retreating? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 EPS is coming out now but the mean snow went from nothing to an 1". 10/51 get 2" to DC 19/51 get 1" to DC ETA: Oops, I didn't click ahead far enough on the 00z run. It went down from 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 EPS stepped back from 0z. Not what I (or any of us) was hoping for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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