mdsnowlover Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 ooops!! from anthony maisello A solid La Nina forcing pattern returns for early March. Enjoy your precious spring fling Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 4 hours ago, Amped said: I kind of new tonight runs would be ****, but I stuck my face in them anyway Lets just say it was a bad idea. SE ridge Galore in the long range. Euro has a lakes cutter that goes straight up Hudsons bay, and 850 temp anomalies + on every panel... Despite plenty of advertised different(better) looks in the guidance, and a few realized brief shifts in the overall pattern, the base long wave pattern never deviated far from what began in December. Might as well end this dud with an impressive, persistent eastern ridge and some early warm weather. Of course it will break down and be wet and miserable(but too late for snow) for mid to late March and April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 13 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Despite plenty of advertised different(better) looks in the guidance, and a few realized brief shifts in the overall pattern, the base long wave pattern never deviated far from what began in December. Might as well end this dud with an impressive, persistent eastern ridge and some early warm weather. Of course it will break down and be wet and miserable(but too late for snow) for mid to late March and April. Glad I will be off the boards and not tracking for the next 4 days. I will get a reprieve from watching yet another fail in a long laundry list of fails for the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 5 hours ago, Amped said: I kind of new tonight runs would be ****, but I stuck my face in them anyway Lets just say it was a bad idea. SE ridge Galore in the long range. Euro has a lakes cutter that goes straight up Hudsons bay, and 850 temp anomalies + on every panel... Good to hear, "winter" is over, let it be an early spring, not 40 degree temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: Despite plenty of advertised different(better) looks in the guidance, and a few realized brief shifts in the overall pattern, the base long wave pattern never deviated far from what began in December. Might as well end this dud with an impressive, persistent eastern ridge and some early warm weather. Of course it will break down and be wet and miserable(but too late for snow) for mid to late March and April. The pattern changed plenty just not for the better. Remember the upper Midwest started the winter frigid and snowy and has been torching and not a flake since xmas. We have had 3 real longwave patterns this year. One late November through mid December that featured an AK ridge and trough in the west and central US. One from dec 20-jan20 (with one 5 day transient cold blast in the middle) that featured a +epo -pna +AO/nao and as you would expect in such a massive ridge covering most of the Conus east of the Rockies. The pattern late January through feb 10 was dominated by another AK ridge and this time some higher heights around Greenland but also ridging across the western 2/3 of the conus and the resultant trough was too far northeast for us and the northern stream didn't dig enough. But see below the actual pattern from Jan 25-feb 10. We now seem to be transitioning into a 4th longwave pattern dominated by an epo ridge, central North America trough and eastern ridge. All 4 were very different but yea they had one thing in common, no snow. 3/4 also featured a strong eastern ridge and that's not a coincidence. Regardless of if it's a nino or nina we want the warmer water centered in the central pacific and cooler east. Modoki nino and east based nina. So even though the nina was weak and faded it did so in the wrong way. We needed it to fade from west to east not warm in the eastern PAC first. That only worsened the tropical forcing situation for us. That sst configuration is a strong signal for an eastern ridge. Then add in the warm waters all across the western Atlantic. That promotes a ridge in the east also. The qbo was detrimental to blocking that could have helped somewhat. My guess is those 3 factors were a big problem. And frankly we didn't have any help from anywhere else either. The north PAC sst flipped around and caused a pdo phase flip. The North Atlantic sst aren't great for nao help either. I honestly don't see anything that broke right for our purposes. Of course this is hindsight. The problem with seasonal forecasts is while some of these factors were known in November and the consensus was a crappy year, a few of these factors that cemented our awful fate this year weren't predicted at that time. Guidance missed the development of the warming in the east equatorial Pacific for instance. So there were some underlying dominant factors that skewed each pattern bad for snow here, but there was variability over the course of the winter season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: The pattern changed plenty just not for the better. Remember the upper Midwest started the winter frigid and snowy and has been torching and not a flake since xmas. We have had 3 real longwave patterns this year. One late November through mid December that featured an AK ridge and trough in the west and central US. One from dec 20-jan20 (with one 5 day transient cold blast in the middle) that featured a +epo -pna +AO/nao and as you would expect in such a massive ridge covering most of the Conus east of the Rockies. The pattern late January through feb 10 was dominated by another AK ridge and this time some higher heights around Greenland but also ridging across the western 2/3 of the conus and the resultant trough was too far northeast for us and the northern stream didn't dig enough. But see below the actual pattern from Jan 25-feb 10. We now seem to be transitioning into a 4th longwave pattern dominated by an epo ridge, central North America trough and eastern ridge. All 4 were very different but yea they had one thing in common, no snow. 3/4 also featured a strong eastern ridge and that's not a coincidence. Regardless of if it's a nino or nina we want the warmer water centered in the central pacific and cooler east. Modoki nino and east based nina. So even though the nina was weak and faded it did so in the wrong way. We needed it to fade from west to east not warm in the eastern PAC first. That only worsened the tropical forcing situation for us. That sst configuration is a strong signal for an eastern ridge. Then add in the warm waters all across the western Atlantic. That promotes a ridge in the east also. The qbo was detrimental to blocking that could have helped somewhat. My guess is those 3 factors were a big problem. And frankly we didn't have any help from anywhere else either. The north PAC sst flipped around and caused a pdo phase flip. The North Atlantic sst aren't great for nao help either. I honestly don't see anything that broke right for our purposes. Of course this is hindsight. The problem with seasonal forecasts is while some of these factors were known in November and the consensus was a crappy year, a few of these factors that cemented our awful fate this year weren't predicted at that time. Guidance missed the development of the warming in the east equatorial Pacific for instance. So there were some underlying dominant factors that skewed each pattern bad for snow here, but there was variability over the course of the winter season. Nice write up. And I do agree there were variations in the pattern- I think I said it didn't deviate far. Your analysis is more granular, but big picture, we never got enough of a shift in the ePac pattern in the right direction for very long. Mean ridge has been too far west, and rarely worked out where we had the pna and epo phases aligned and well placed. The neg AO/NAO was often promised but rarely materialized. If that could have locked in for 10 days or so we may be having a different discussion now. There were "good looks" modeled, but it either did not come to fruition, or did so with major flaws(for snow chances), or were incredibly transient. Just one of those dud winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 On 2/17/2017 at 11:50 AM, psuhoffman said: Truly hecs level 1993 and even that was more west of 95. 1960 1958 and 1942 were the really big regional march storms. We have had some region wide mecs or secs level events in march 2015 & 2015. Then there are the years where the northwest higher elevation portion of the region experienced a big snow in march that didn't effect DC itself all that much. The second 1999 storm, 1964, 1962, the earlier march 58 storm and there was a year in the 70s too that I can't recall but up here had a 12" snow but DC was mostly rain. Im sure I missed some those are off the top of my head but we are kinda due for a big late season storm. They were way more common in the past then lately. March 9, 1976 - 6 inch line made it down to the northern parts of Baltimore City while DC got little if any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 51 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Nice write up. And I do agree there were variations in the pattern- I think I said it didn't deviate far. Your analysis is more granular, but big picture, we never got enough of a shift in the ePac pattern in the right direction for very long. Mean ridge has been too far west, and rarely worked out where we had the pna and epo phases aligned and well placed. The neg AO/NAO was often promised but rarely materialized. If that could have locked in for 10 days or so we may be having a different discussion now. There were "good looks" modeled, but it either did not come to fruition, or did so with major flaws(for snow chances), or were incredibly transient. Just one of those dud winters. I didn't mean my write up as a retort of your point but rather just a clarification. For us here the winters pattern was pretty static because we were stuck under the influence of several factors that for us meant warm and no snow as a predominant theme. But hemisphericaly the pattern went through several iterations that meant very variable weather for other places. It's micro vs macro view. It's just all the different patterns all lined up bad for us because as you pointed out there were some bad killer features for out specific location that persisted through all the seasonal variability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 7 minutes ago, Sparky said: March 9, 1976 - 6 inch line made it down to the northern parts of Baltimore City while DC got little if any. That's the one. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 It's pretty impressive and depressing that we're going to torch right through this....to me an indication of how dominant the negative drivers to this pattern are right now. Note we torched through a phase 1/2 in January also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 39 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That's the one. Thanks I remember as a kid living in Carroll county, a March storm that was supposed to produce like 1-2" and we got close to a foot. And it was after a long period of not seeing much of any snow during that winter. Is this that storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 54 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I remember as a kid living in Carroll county, a March storm that was supposed to produce like 1-2" and we got close to a foot. And it was after a long period of not seeing much of any snow during that winter. Is this that storm? I'll check my records when I get home. Out enjoying the weather. But 1976 was a blah winter overall so that may have been the one your thinking of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: I remember as a kid living in Carroll county, a March storm that was supposed to produce like 1-2" and we got close to a foot. And it was after a long period of not seeing much of any snow during that winter. Is this that storm? My last year in high school. I remember they kept uping the ante as the day went on and then finally let us out early. Came home that night and took part in the best snowball fight in my life. Perfect consistency for snowballs. Lasted 45 minutes none stop. Ahh, youth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 12 minutes ago, mitchnick said: My last year in high school. I remember they kept uping the ante as the day went on and then finally let us out early. Came home that night and took part in the best snowball fight in my life. Perfect consistency for snowballs. Last 45 minutes none stop. Ahh, youth. I would have been 10 but that sticks out as one of the most fun times I had in the snow. Heavy wet snow, snowball fights, forts, the whole deal. Maybe there is still some hope. That winter was pretty sucky too until that point iirc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: I remember as a kid living in Carroll county, a March storm that was supposed to produce like 1-2" and we got close to a foot. And it was after a long period of not seeing much of any snow during that winter. Is this that storm? Feb. 76 had a few record highs in the 70s just like....uhmm, Feb 17 has had....just saying' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 31 minutes ago, Sparky said: Feb. 76 had a few record highs in the 70s just like....uhmm, Feb 17 has had....just saying' Mid March is gonna rock! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I'll check my records when I get home. Out enjoying the weather. But 1976 was a blah winter overall so that may have been the one your thinking of. I missed this post. Thanks. I am pretty sure that was the storm I was thinking of. But if you have actual data I would love to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 While the 12z EPS is not full of optimism, there are glimmers of hope. Towards day 15, the AK ridge moves into a more favorable position, the western trough is gone, and modest positive height anomalies build in that area. The "impressive" east coast ridge weakens and 850t anomalies approach normal values. The colder air is closer and within reach. This is day 15, and rolling it forward is risky. So this is all fwiw, and glass half full sort of stuff. What a fantastic day this was. Posts like this from me will be rapidly on the wane if this keeps up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 18z GFS totally different than 12z haha reminder about taking day 8 maps seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 According to 00 UT NAEFS, early March will have several opportunities for rain and normal temperatures. No sign of a torch so there's a chance! Like many of you I spent quite a bit of time outside today -- The more time I was outside the more certain I was that winter's over. Will give it until daylight saving time begins and then line up ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 2 hours ago, Amped said: 18z GFS totally different than 12z haha reminder about taking day 8 maps seriously. How? Looks like lower heights west and higher east. I see no changes. SSDD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 59 minutes ago, BristowWx said: How? Looks like lower heights west and higher east. I see no changes. SSDD You can see it on the H5 anomaly map at 192 hours. By 216 hours, there are big changes at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 Yes. I see it now. Still blows but it's colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 6 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: I would have been 10 but that sticks out as one of the most fun times I had in the snow. Heavy wet snow, snowball fights, forts, the whole deal. Maybe there is still some hope. That winter was pretty sucky too until that point iirc. I don't have as much historical knowledge as many posters on this board, but around this time of year I always remember the April Fool's day storm in Boston in 1997. It was after a winter with below-average snowfall and the high the day before was 63. Then they got a storm that dropped over 2 feet of heavy, wet snow. They got a foot of thundersnow in one four-hour period. I've wondered what the snow water equivalent was for that storm, but I haven't been able to find it. I don't know if they were in a good pattern for a big storm that season or if things just happened to line up right, but if Boston can get a blizzard in April then I know I'll probably be checking in on the models and this forum for at least a couple more weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 9 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: I missed this post. Thanks. I am pretty sure that was the storm I was thinking of. But if you have actual data I would love to see it. The storm was 3/9-3/10 1976. Very bad winter until that point. This area had only around 8" to that point. Similar to this year actually. The closest coop report to me from that storm was 7 miles north in Hanover pa with 12". Parkton reported 10.5". Uniontown 12.5". Loch raven dam 8.8". Bwi 7.8". iAd 6.4" and DCA 0.8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 After watching JB's weekend summary I decided to do some digging to see how rare our pattern this winter has been. I came across just one single analog when monthly soi values trended similarly from moderately + to slightly negative from early to mid autumn then slightly positive for early winter. Here is what I came up with! From macro to meso each map for November through January... 10mb strat NOTES: Both show lower heights over the Pacific Northwest with north pole stratospheric warming...edge stuff is likely noise 2016-2017 and 1931-1932! (DCA has 4" snowfall in March) 250 mb Jet Stream Correlations: warm pool south of the Aleutians, low heights over the far pacific northwest, above normal heights over eastern U.S. and eastern Europe NOTES: anomaly over Greenland 2016-2017 1931-1032 500mb center of the action! NOTES: almost identical correlations and anomalies as 250mb 2016-2017 1931-1932 1000mb (imby aloft) NOTES nearly identical correlations again, but an anomaly over Siberia... 2016-2017 1931-1932 Precipitatable Water NOTES: Slightly more moisture over the eastern U.S. during 1931-1932 2016-2017 1931-1932 CONUS Temps NOTES: overall torch with anomalies of lower heights over the western U.S., higher heights imby (wow!) and stronger overall gradients in 1931-1932 interestingly 2016-2017 1931-1932 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 1 minute ago, BTRWx said: After watching JB's weekend summary I decided to do some digging to see how rare our pattern this winter has been. I came across just one single analog when monthly soi values trended similarly from moderately + to slightly negative from early to mid autumn then slightly positive for early winter. Here is what I came up with! From macro to meso each map for November through January... 10mb strat NOTES: Both show lower heights over the Pacific Northwest with north pole stratospheric warming...edge stuff is likely noise 2016-2017 and 1931-1932! (DCA has 4" snowfall in March) 250 mb Jet Stream Correlations: warm pool south of the Aleutians, low heights over the far pacific northwest, above normal heights over eastern U.S. and eastern Europe NOTES: anomaly over Greenland 2016-2017 1931-1032 500mb center of the action! NOTES: almost identical correlations and anomalies as 250mb 2016-2017 1931-1932 1000mb (imby aloft) NOTES nearly identical correlations again, but an anomaly over Siberia... 2016-2017 1931-1932 Precipitatable Water NOTES: Slightly more moisture over the eastern U.S. during 1931-1932 2016-2017 1931-1932 CONUS Temps NOTES: overall torch with anomalies of lower heights over the western U.S., higher heights imby (wow!) and stronger overall gradients in 1931-1932 interestingly 2016-2017 1931-1932 Now I need sleep! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 Good find. 1931-32 had the least snowfall of any winter recorded at MRB (from 1926--2000) with 1.4" for the season. Guess this area missed the March event. Next on the list was '72-73 with 3". This year I have tallied 3.3" in my yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 In some way this 31-32 winter comparison makes me happy. I often think the good old days is when it snowed Nov to April with wall to wall cold. Before I was born. Apparently not the case. Thanks for doing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 I could be wrong, but it seems like this season is only in the record books for DC area. Down south scored this year didn't they? I know north NJ coast had at least 10 inches (below average but definitely not a record), part of that extended all the way down to Delaware (we had about 4 inches total for the season here). Seems like there was a nice little snow hole over DC/Baltimore yet again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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