CAPE Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 10 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Feel like you all believe I think we see that trough come eastward, which is not the case. There are no arguments on my part in regards to where we most likely see that trough set up. Which is in the west. As I said before, persistence. The above speculation was more to the possibilities presented at this time with the current setup and nothing more. We ganged up on you. Stop being optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: We ganged up on you. Stop being optimistic. Got a four day trip starting tomorrow planned for Charles town, WV to celebrate my birthday. Weather looks to be great so we will probably hit Harper's Ferry for a day. Bloomery Plantation will probably be a stop where we can do a taste testing on their moonshine. Been there before and that is a fun experience though somewhat pricey as we normally leave with a case worth of hooch. Plenty of good food if you know where to look. Oh, and I forgot to mention gambling, of which I will do plenty of. So yeah, I am somewhat optimistic today. Of course catch up to me after the trip. I am sure I will be a downright negative Nellie then as I count all the money I lost gambling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 9 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Got a four day trip starting tomorrow planned for Charles town, WV to celebrate my birthday. Weather looks to be great so we will probably hit Harper's Ferry for a day. Bloomery Plantation will probably be a stop where we can do a taste testing on their moonshine. Been there before and that is a fun experience though somewhat pricey as we normally leave with a case worth of hooch. Plenty of good food if you know where to look. Oh, and I forgot to mention gambling, of which I will do plenty of. So yeah, I am somewhat optimistic today. Of course catch up to me after the trip. I am sure I will be a downright negative Nellie then as I count all the money I lost gambling. Sounds awesome. I love Harper's Ferry and surrounding area. Have a great time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: If we are going to look at this through the perspective of gambling, I choose blackjack, and I think we all will agree that most of the 10 pt cards and Aces are still in the deck. It's happening. We'd probably bust hitting a soft 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We'd probably bust hitting a soft 16 NO. We will split 10's and hit two Black Jack's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: NO. We will split 10's and hit two Black Jack's It's going to be march 60 followed by 93, 58, and 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 34 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It's going to be march 60 followed by 93, 58, and 42. I think JB took over psuhoffman's computer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 7 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: I think JB took over psuhoffman's computer. We joke all the time but one of these years we finally will get one of those historic late season type storms again...might as well be this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: We joke all the time but one of these years we finally will get one of those historic late season type storms again...might as well be this year. when was the last time there was a historic march storm in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 It's the op at range so take it for what it's worth but the setup at day 8-9 already look much better then previous runs on the GFS. Will be interesting to see how this play out farther in the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 20 minutes ago, PaEasternWX said: when was the last time there was a historic march storm in the area. Truly hecs level 1993 and even that was more west of 95. 1960 1958 and 1942 were the really big regional march storms. We have had some region wide mecs or secs level events in march 2015 & 2015. Then there are the years where the northwest higher elevation portion of the region experienced a big snow in march that didn't effect DC itself all that much. The second 1999 storm, 1964, 1962, the earlier march 58 storm and there was a year in the 70s too that I can't recall but up here had a 12" snow but DC was mostly rain. Im sure I missed some those are off the top of my head but we are kinda due for a big late season storm. They were way more common in the past then lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 30 minutes ago, PaEasternWX said: when was the last time there was a historic march storm in the area. Well, at this point I'd be inclined to say that any snow in March, or any other month, is historic... ....but if we're really talking historic storm, then 1993. You could make a case that '13 was out here. 10 - 15" around here, although heartbreak elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Well, at this point I'd be inclined to say that any snow in March, or any other month, is historic... ....but if we're really talking historic storm, then 1993. You could make a case that '13 was out here. 10 - 15" around here, although heartbreak elsewhere. That 2013 storm was a much weaker version of the Ashe Wednesday storm. Similar track and setup and snowfall distribution only much less overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 8 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: It's the op at range so take it for what it's worth but the setup at day 8-9 already look much better then previous runs on the GFS. Will be interesting to see how this play out farther in the run. And just like that it shifts the trough back into the west later in the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: And just like that it shifts the trough back into the west later in the run. Everything shows that progression. Any window will be very brief and transient. Then perhaps a more sustained favorable pattern develops later after day 15 IF the cold presses east like the euro implies. The gfs has wanted to dump it west and pump a huge ridge east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 Maybe the epo can become our friend again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 Just now, psuhoffman said: Everything shows that progression. Any window will be very brief and transient. Then perhaps a more sustained favorable pattern develops later after day 15 IF the cold presses east like the euro implies. The gfs has wanted to dump it west and pump a huge ridge east. Shame the ridging into Greenland doesn't want to stick, as it is though it does set up a three day window as evidenced by the two storms around day day 10 and 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 10 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Shame the ridging into Greenland doesn't want to stick, as it is though it does set up a three day window as evidenced by the two storms around day day 10 and 12. The euro and gfs are way off in their mjo progression. Gfs slips back into less favorable phases while euro goes into 1-2 which is what we want. That might determine our fate for march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The euro and gfs are way off in their mjo progression. Gfs slips back into less favorable phases while euro goes into 1-2 which is what we want. That might determine our fate for march. I hear that pitchers and catcher reported. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 47 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: And just like that it shifts the trough back into the west later in the run. This run sucked and the day 8-9 storm looks like crap. I don't know what he's talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 That looks pretty boss 200 miles north of Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 February is over... we probably have a chance in early march... but I am really beginning to think winter is just about over for most of us... LR 12z GFS's h5 heights aren't really conducive for snow around here... but I guess the one positive takeaway from this run, if there is one, is the brutal cold reappearing in the Upper Plains and NW at the end of the run Days 14-16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 1 hour ago, PaEasternWX said: when was the last time there was a historic march storm in the area. A year and a half ago: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 10 minutes ago, Amped said: This run sucked and the day 8-9 storm looks like crap. I don't know what he's talking about. 1 hour ago, showmethesnow said: It's the op at range so take it for what it's worth but the setup at day 8-9 already look much better then previous runs on the GFS. Will be interesting to see how this play out farther in the run. What's there to understand? The 500mb setup at day 8/9, not storm, is much better. It actually opens a roughly 3 day window immediately afterwards as evidenced but the two storms that pop up.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 15 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Day 10 Gfs vort below. ... Looks good Yes it does... but there is no cold air around anywhere for us but to teh NW... so we rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 31 minutes ago, Amped said: This run sucked and the day 8-9 storm looks like crap. I don't know what he's talking about. Thought I would also add that unlike the convoluted solutions that previous runs were showing with regards to our day 8 storm and its interaction with the stubborn low off of Florida it now actually presents a somewhat reasonable possibility of scoring in this time period. It clears that stubborn Florida low out and now sets the possibility of an anafront low developing and riding up the cold front. Like the odds better on scoring with that setup then I did with that crap they were spitting out before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 4 minutes ago, yoda said: Yes it does... but there is no cold air around anywhere for us but to teh NW Considering we are talking 10+ days on both threats I would say the cold is close enough to make it interesting as long as we see the low sliding underneath us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 GGEM 240 is a heck of a lot better than the GFS with the blocking, but I don't take either seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 ECMWF also too far southwest with the blocking in ALaska at 240hrs. Wouldn't take that big a change to split a piece of the ridge off to the northeast and make it a good pattern like the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 It's amazing that given this epo/AO/nao on the geps and gefs that there is still a raging ridge in the east. This is something I've noticed numerous times this year and always assumed "give me that general pattern and it will work out" but I'm not saying that anymore. There is obviously something driving the pattern that wants a ridge in the east. That said the overall pattern is good enough to hold out hope of something popping up in march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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