February Medium/Long Range Disco Thread 2

[WinterWxLuvr]

The euro has been pretty consistent in its progression during that time frame.  This could be a good period for us.  We have a month or so before it becomes a joke.  10 days out would leave us about a 3 week period.

[WinterWxLuvr]

7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Beyond day 10, with colder air in place, if something should develop in that area and move east, I suppose there would be possibilities. There is a very weak "L" in N Texas but no precip at day 10.

1003 in north Texas isn't all that weak.  Those can easily be good east coast storms if they can make it there.

[stormtracker]

27 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

1003 in north Texas isn't all that weak.  Those can easily be good east coast storms if they can make it there.

And if they can make it here, they can make it anywhere!

[MDstorm]

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Any thoughts on the day 10 euro?  Other than it's day 10?

It's a period of interest with a window of opportunity and looks workable.

 

MDstorm

[CAPE]

12z EPS is a general yawner with any storm chances days 11-15.

[Amped]

GFS may try to do a 2/25/10 on the day10  storm.  Too late for us though.

[CAPE]

Last 3 runs of the GEFS are pretty much a suckfest. Anomalous cold stays pretty far west of our area. Average or even slightly below on the means wont cut it 10 days from now. In general we dont even have that. Mostly what is being advertised is ridging and above normal h5 heights and 850 temps along the east coast as we head into early March. Mid March could be our window of opportunity though!

[North Balti Zen]

7 minutes ago, Amped said:

GFS may try to do a 2/25/10 on the day10  storm.  Too late for us though.

So was 2/25/10

[psuhoffman]

57 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Last 3 runs of the GEFS are pretty much a suckfest. Anomalous cold stays pretty far west of our area. Average or even slightly below on the means wont cut it 10 days from now. In general we dont even have that. Mostly what is being advertised is ridging and above normal h5 heights and 850 temps along the east coast as we head into early March. Mid March could be our window of opportunity though!

If this look is close that eastern ridge wouldn't last long. But of course I have no faith in the look. 

[showmethesnow]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If this look is close that eastern ridge wouldn't last long. But of course I have no faith in the look. 

Wasn't going to mention it because it was day 15 and we know how that is going, but the EPS has a very similar look as well. But what are the chances that what verifies is even close to this?

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Wasn't going to mention it because it was day 15 and we know how that is going, but the EPS has a very similar look as well. But what are the chances that what verifies is even close to this?

Low but the weeklies show just now that if that did verify it would lead to a good pattern. They are cold week 3 & 4. 

[Wonderdog]

GFS op run has a LP on the 26th gathering momentum in the Gulf and comes up the coast while another system is coming to our area from the west. Mostly if not all rain but that look has been there for about three runs now. Of course as depicted, it won't evolve that way but that LP from the west is bringing the cold air with it. Then afterwards we get good cold air coming in. Hopefully this scenario will give us multiple systems to track right before Spring. After all, it's the chase that is the exciting part of this hobby, right?

[CAPE]

26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If this look is close that eastern ridge wouldn't last long. But of course I have no faith in the look. 

Agreed and agreed lol. Verbatim that should lead to a nice pattern for the east a few days later. The one feature I can guarantee is not real is the ridge over GL. I would put a lot of money on that one.

[Yeoman]

6 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

At some point doesn't it have to become something other than the day 9-10 period?

Not when you're living in a fantasy world.. you have better luck crapping out a gold nugget than a model hitting on a day 10 forecast..

 

[Bob Chill]

46 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

Not when you're living in a fantasy world.. you have better luck crapping out a gold nugget than a model hitting on a day 10 forecast..

 

If you're constipated enough there a good chance you can crap out a diamond. 

[Yeoman]

If you're constipated enough there a good chance you can crap out a diamond. 

🥃

[winterymix]

March 6?     Probably more rain.

Here is an easy prediction:  Wes will be fishing before we see snow again.

[showmethesnow]

Considering that every time we see a potential favorable setup in the longer range it goes to crap I even hesitate to say this but... with just a little tweaking there is a lot of potential showing up for day 8 through 15 and probably even beyond that. Day 8 is probably a couple/three days to soon as the cold is just getting reestablished in the CONUS but even with that I can see some possibilities that are not so far fetched to make it workable. 

If the models are to be believed, we will shortly enter a very active period roughly day 8 onward. Looking at the last few runs of both the EPS and the GEFS we are seeing that they favor establishing a mean trough from anywhere between the center of the country towards the Midwest. Though this pattern, with a little luck, would present some opportunities it probably argues more so for lows tracking to our west as the trough is a little to far to the west for our liking. But if we begin to see the models deepening this trough, which I fully expect to see happen as the smoothing we see the models tend to do in the longer range lessens, then our chances increase somewhat. Now the key feature I will be paying attention to, besides the models holding on to the overall general pattern, is do the models start shifting the mean trough eastward over subsequent runs? With each shift eastward our chances improve.

Now if we can keep the overall general pattern, get the through to deepen which I expect and then hopefully see a shifting of the trough eastward roughly 200-300 miles I think are chances improve dramatically and with a little luck we would possibly be in for a pleasant surprise as we enter an extended period of actual winter weather.

Now cue the models to do what they have done best this winter and start shifting the trough westward to where it gets planted into the southwest. It would be the cherry on top of this dismal winter and would be the final push of sending me over the cliff.

[dallen7908]

Yes it does look active beginning in early March or perhaps a bit earlier. 

 

According to the NAEFS,  it look like next week's warm up will end by the 26/27th followed by a cold-dry period through the 1st. Temperatures will moderate by the 2nd/3rd with a chance of rain or even mixed precipitation.

[Scraff]

15 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Considering that every time we see a potential favorable setup in the longer range it goes to crap I even hesitate to say this but... with just a little tweaking there is a lot of potential showing up for day 8 through 15 and probably even beyond that. Day 8 is probably a couple/three days to soon as the cold is just getting reestablished in the CONUS but even with that I can see some possibilities that are not so far fetched to make it workable. 

If the models are to be believed, we will shortly enter a very active period roughly day 8 onward. Looking at the last few runs of both the EPS and the GEFS we are seeing that they favor establishing a mean trough from anywhere between the center of the country towards the Midwest. Though this pattern, with a little luck, would present some opportunities it probably argues more so for lows tracking to our west as the trough is a little to far to the west for our liking. But if we begin to see the models deepening this trough, which I fully expect to see happen as the smoothing we see the models tend to do in the longer range lessens, then our chances increase somewhat. Now the key feature I will be paying attention to, besides the models holding on to the overall general pattern, is do the models start shifting the mean trough eastward over subsequent runs? With each shift eastward our chances improve.

Now if we can keep the overall general pattern, get the through to deepen which I expect and then hopefully see a shifting of the trough eastward roughly 200-300 miles I think are chances improve dramatically and with a little luck we would possibly be in for a pleasant surprise as we enter an extended period of actual winter weather.

Now cue the models to do what they have done best this winter and start shifting the trough westward to where it gets planted into the southwest. It would be the cherry on top of this dismal winter and would be the final push of sending me over the cliff.

One last attempt for winter. Might as well right!? Nothing to lose, possible happiness to end the winter to gain. I'm in.

[poolz1]

Pretty significant soi drop over the past few days...today's -52 (I think) is the biggest neg we have seen this season.  Gives credence to the idea of a cooler/colder start to March.  Where the storm track ends up....anyones guess.

[psuhoffman]

27 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Considering that every time we see a potential favorable setup in the longer range it goes to crap I even hesitate to say this but... with just a little tweaking there is a lot of potential showing up for day 8 through 15 and probably even beyond that. Day 8 is probably a couple/three days to soon as the cold is just getting reestablished in the CONUS but even with that I can see some possibilities that are not so far fetched to make it workable. 

If the models are to be believed, we will shortly enter a very active period roughly day 8 onward. Looking at the last few runs of both the EPS and the GEFS we are seeing that they favor establishing a mean trough from anywhere between the center of the country towards the Midwest. Though this pattern, with a little luck, would present some opportunities it probably argues more so for lows tracking to our west as the trough is a little to far to the west for our liking. But if we begin to see the models deepening this trough, which I fully expect to see happen as the smoothing we see the models tend to do in the longer range lessens, then our chances increase somewhat. Now the key feature I will be paying attention to, besides the models holding on to the overall general pattern, is do the models start shifting the mean trough eastward over subsequent runs? With each shift eastward our chances improve.

Now if we can keep the overall general pattern, get the through to deepen which I expect and then hopefully see a shifting of the trough eastward roughly 200-300 miles I think are chances improve dramatically and with a little luck we would possibly be in for a pleasant surprise as we enter an extended period of actual winter weather.

Now cue the models to do what they have done best this winter and start shifting the trough westward to where it gets planted into the southwest. It would be the cherry on top of this dismal winter and would be the final push of sending me over the cliff.

I see the potential IF the trough can shift east. Somewhere is certainly going to get a cold stormy period given the epo depiction on all the guidance. But later in winter the epo signal for cold is weaker in the east. The shorter wavelengths create the risk the cold dumps west and the trough isn't broad enough so ridging pops up the east coast. That's exactly what all the guidance shows.  If anything the guidance has been retrograding the cold the wrong way the last few runs.  The euro looks closer to me and seems ready to get the trough into the east day 15.  The gefs is pretty far off and would dump the trough into the inter mountain west and get it stuck there.

Could it be wrong yea. Early January it did that and in the end the cold dumped into the east. But for the most part that ridge has won. It's strongly supported by both the pacific and Atlantic sst analogs. It's no surprise the pattern turned out this way. The only surprise is that we couldn't score at least some snow during one of our transient cold shots before the ridge poped back up. 

[showmethesnow]

8 minutes ago, Scraff said:

One last attempt for winter. Might as well right!? Nothing to lose, possible happiness to end the winter to gain. I'm in.

If I were a betting man, which I am, I would go with the hot hand. Considering we have been throwing snake eyes all winter my money would be on persistence. Would happily lose that money though if we could score something.

[WinterWxLuvr]

4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

If I were a betting man, which I am, I would go with the hot hand. Considering we have been throwing snake eyes all winter my money would be on persistence. Would happily lose that money though if we could score something.

If we are going to look at this through the perspective of gambling, I choose blackjack, and I think we all will agree that most of the 10 pt cards and Aces are still in the deck.

It's happening.  

[showmethesnow]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I see the potential IF the trough can shift east. Somewhere is certainly going to get a cold stormy period given the epo depiction on all the guidance. But later in winter the epo signal for cold is weaker in the east. The shorter wavelengths create the risk the cold dumps west and the trough isn't broad enough so ridging pops up the east coast. That's exactly what all the guidance shows.  If anything the guidance has been retrograding the cold the wrong way the last few runs.  The euro looks closer to me and seems ready to get the trough into the east day 15.  The gefs is pretty far off and would dump the trough into the inter mountain west and get it stuck there.

Could it be wrong yea. Early January it did that and in the end the cold dumped into the east. But for the most part that ridge has won. It's strongly supported by both the pacific and Atlantic sst analogs. It's no surprise the pattern turned out this way. The only surprise is that we couldn't score at least some snow during one of our transient cold shots before the ridge poped back up. 

That is the big question, where does the mean trough set up? 

Though I am not an expert on this in anyway I do question the fact that we begin to transition into a longer wave length pattern at this time of year. Would that possibly argue for seeing a subsequent shift eastward of the trough. Or am I just way off base here? The 06Z GFS aside, which I really haven't looked at, as far as the cold bleeding eastward I thought they were for the most part inconclusive though if I had to hedge one way or the other I thought overall they might have been a touch quicker. But what do I know.  

All this said, I still lean towards your thoughts that we see greater ridging in the east and the trough getting displaced in the west. Persistence after all. Hope we are both wrong though. 

[showmethesnow]

10 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

If we are going to look at this through the perspective of gambling, I choose blackjack, and I think we all will agree that most of the 10 pt cards and Aces are still in the deck.

It's happening.  

I could buy into this if it weren't for the fact we are playing in a Casino called the Mid-Atlantic and they didn't always stack the deck.  

[CAPE]

28 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

That is the big question, where does the mean trough set up? 

Though I am not an expert on this in anyway I do question the fact that we begin to transition into a longer wave length pattern at this time of year. Would that possibly argue for seeing a subsequent shift eastward of the trough. Or am I just way off base here? The 06Z GFS aside, which I really haven't looked at, as far as the cold bleeding eastward I thought they were for the most part inconclusive though if I had to hedge one way or the other I thought overall they might have been a touch quicker. But what do I know.  

All this said, I still lean towards your thoughts that we see greater ridging in the east and the trough getting displaced in the west. Persistence after all. Hope we are both wrong though. 

I agree with PSU. Mean trough seems to want to set up to our west. Not seeing progression on the GEFS or EPS over several runs, and if anything its retrograding.. Plenty of WAR on the means through day 15.

[showmethesnow]

8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I agree with PSU. Mean trough seems to want to set up to our west. Not seeing progression on the GEFS or EPS over several runs, and if anything its retrograding.. Plenty of WAR on the means through day 15.

Feel like you all believe I think we see that trough come eastward, which is not the case. There are no arguments on my part in regards to where we most likely see that trough set up. Which is in the west. As I said before, persistence. The above speculation was more to the possibilities presented at this time with the current setup and nothing more. 

[Wonderdog]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

Considering that every time we see a potential favorable setup in the longer range it goes to crap I even hesitate to say this but... with just a little tweaking there is a lot of potential showing up for day 8 through 15 and probably even beyond that. Day 8 is probably a couple/three days to soon as the cold is just getting reestablished in the CONUS but even with that I can see some possibilities that are not so far fetched to make it workable. 

If the models are to be believed, we will shortly enter a very active period roughly day 8 onward. Looking at the last few runs of both the EPS and the GEFS we are seeing that they favor establishing a mean trough from anywhere between the center of the country towards the Midwest. Though this pattern, with a little luck, would present some opportunities it probably argues more so for lows tracking to our west as the trough is a little to far to the west for our liking. But if we begin to see the models deepening this trough, which I fully expect to see happen as the smoothing we see the models tend to do in the longer range lessens, then our chances increase somewhat. Now the key feature I will be paying attention to, besides the models holding on to the overall general pattern, is do the models start shifting the mean trough eastward over subsequent runs? With each shift eastward our chances improve.

Now if we can keep the overall general pattern, get the through to deepen which I expect and then hopefully see a shifting of the trough eastward roughly 200-300 miles I think are chances improve dramatically and with a little luck we would possibly be in for a pleasant surprise as we enter an extended period of actual winter weather.

Now cue the models to do what they have done best this winter and start shifting the trough westward to where it gets planted into the southwest. It would be the cherry on top of this dismal winter and would be the final push of sending me over the cliff.

Good analysis but it contains many "ifs.

[showmethesnow]

1 minute ago, Wonderdog said:

Good analysis but it contains many "ifs.

Just trying to bring some hope, no matter how small, to the weary souls that have had to endure this horrid winter. It's a Hale Mary, but what the Hell.